Posted by altogringo on September 23, 2000 at 09:42:48:
| Tijuana's growth puts males in slight majority By David Gaddis Smith September 22, 2000 What's the population of Tijuana? It depends on whom you ask. The national census taken in February registered it as slightly more than 1.2 million, although other analysts put it at about 1.3 million. While some people have claimed it is even 2 million, demographers say that is just wishful or wildly speculative thinking. "These counts never leave anyone satisfied," said Rodolfo Tuirán, secretary-general of Mexico's National Population Council, during a recent visit to Tijuana. Indeed, just as in the United States, most cities and states want the highest counts possible, because having more people can mean more federal dollars and greater representation in the national Congress. Tijuana could use the extra money. It is having a hard time building the streets, water lines and schools its burgeoning population is demanding. Tuirán said the census -- which found 97.4 million Mexicans in the country in February -- probably undercounted by about 1 percent. But he said it was more accurate than previous surveys: He estimated that Tijuana's 1990 official population figure of 747,000 was 21/2 percent low. Paul Ganster, director of the Institute for Regional Studies of the Californias at San Diego State University, agreed that the professionalism of Mexico's census counts has increased significantly. Still, he thought the 1,212,232 total for Tijuana a little low. A recent San Diego-Tijuana atlas he edited put it at 1.3 million. Tijuana would be even bigger if Rosarito Beach -- listed at 63,549 people -- had not seceded in 1995. Its breakaway helped Chihuahua state's Ciudad Juárez barely beat Tijuana as the biggest border city with 1,217,818. Of Baja California's other cities, Mexicali has 764,902 people, Ensenada 369,573 and Tecate 77,444. Tijuana's growth rate of about 5 percent is among the highest in Mexico. The fastest-growing city is Cancún, at 7 percent, enough to double its population every decade. The states of Baja California, Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo (home to Cancún) have the highest growth rates. They also are the only three states with more males than females. Demographers say the reason Mexico has far more females than males -- 50 million to 47.4 million -- is that most of the more than 8 million Mexican migrants in the United States are men. The three fastest-growing states appear to have more males because of migration there from elsewhere in Mexico. Tijuana has 7,500 more males than females. The census says Baja California is the 14th-biggest state with 2.5 million people. Baja California Sur is still the smallest of Mexico's 31 states with 424,000 people. Mexico's birthrate has declined dramatically, and the average number of people per household is 4.4, down from 5 in 1990. But in Tijuana, the figure is 4.1. The San Diego-Tijuana International Border Area Planning Atlas -- a joint project by SDSU, the cities of San Diego and Tijuana, the San Diego Association of Governments and Tijuana's Municipal Planning Institute -- estimates Tijuana will have 2.2 million people in 2010 and 3.6 million in 2020. The 2020 figure is almost as many as San Diego County -- now at about 2.9 million -- is projected to have. More people, Ganster said, mean more border crossings. There were 52.8 million crossings in fiscal 1999 -- 41.4 million at San Ysidro and 11.4 million at Otay Mesa. He said even a third port of entry -- now in early planning stages -- probably wouldn't be enough to handle the volume. Ganster said population pressures could lead to a declining quality of life here. "Population growth is the greatest challenge our region faces," he said. |
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