I must admit I am starting to get a little worried.

After peaking around 45.9 in July, the Baht has regained some strength against the dollar. It is now at 44.3 and has been gaining ground increasingly since the beginning of August.

I hope it doesn't gain too much strength between now and my trip in November.

Xenono:

I would not worry about it too much.

overall, I find my expenses are the same at the end of a trip no matter where the bht is.

Btw: I plan to be in hkt early nov. any chance you will be there also?


Falang key nok

43.91 as of today. I don't expect to feel it much, though. Ten days and counting down...

A year ago it was at 46 to 1, now it's at 41.6 and climbing downwards rapidly. I just got off of the phone with two of my trader friends and they confirmed that it will level off at about 35 to 1 by mid September and stay there until the next Thailand collapse due to massive amounts of defaulting creditors. Seems as though, the minds of Thailand thought that offering credit to everyone would boost consumer confidence and help trade. Fortunately for us farangs, those loans will default soon and we will be back to 1997 and 59 to 1. This probably won't happen till next year so dont panic mongers. The dollar always stays strong in the end, even with corrupt people in charge of our corporations.

59 to 1? Is your forecast early or late for the year 2003?

late 2003

The dollar is recovering a little bit vs. the baht, yen and other foreign currencies.

It now stands at 42.2 baht to the dollar.

And if any of you Thailand Hombres are considering Rio, NOW is the time to go. Brazilian Real is now 3.004 to the dollar.

I'll bet you check this at least twice a day...yes?

Excited about your upcoming trip?

More like 20 times a day. And this was since my last trip!

Excited about my upcoming trip?

That would be a huge understatement.

IMHO ( been going to thailand for over 10 years)

No matter where the bht stands to the dollar, the overall trip still costs about the same when all is said and done/spent.

I think the fluctuations only count if you are in the money business.

Anyone have a crystal ball and wanna predict if the Dollar is going to go up against the Baht or down in the next 60 days? (Generally-speaking and barring unforseen major events, of course.) Come-on, someone that watches the currency markets, please respond... I'm looking at exchange rates lower than Sept 12-15th last year! And we all know what that was! At least we have recovered a bit since mid-July 2002! Also, anyone have a bet as to whether or not airfares to Asia will be going up, down or staying the same? (Does the head of finance for EVA read this board? lol) Anyways, take your best stab and I'll take the advise with a grain of salt... Thanks--- RASTA

I think the baht will weaken slightly and sell for 43 to 45 to the US$

As someone who follows the Thai Baht versus the dollar very closely, the only thing I can say is: fuck if I know.

There has been a general upward trend since mid-July but who can predict the market conditions that may drive it higher or lower. I have noticed that the baht seems to follow the yen pretty closely against the dollar. When the yen is down, baht is down. When the yen is up, the baht is up.

The common saying in Asia is that when the US economy sneezes, all of Asia catches a cold. There are still several factors against the once high flying Japenese economy. Their interest rates are at 0% and have been for some time to draw them out of recession. For a while it appeared as if their economy was doing better and that, along the accounting scandals in the US contributed to a major run-up against the dollar. Projections for their economy aren't as rosy now and economic reform promised by their new prime minister have yet to manifest completely.

Looking into my crystal ball, barring anything drastic or major happening, I would say the general trend will be gradually upward for a while now. But that depends on the strength of the US economy's recovery. Japanese officials want to see a higher yen versus the dollar (higher meaning one dollar buys more yen) as it will encourage foriegn investment because yen are cheap. The Bank of Japan recently intervened several times to prop up the dollar against the yen but it did little to help.

Even after September 11th, the baht did not gain drastically on the dollar as it was trading close to 45 to 1 shortly after the event.

What would affect the dollar more is some event that would trigger Thai and Japenese investors to sell out of their US market positions in high numbers to lock in earnings. Foriegn investors in US stocks can only trade in US currency. So when they are buying stocks, the dollar is stronger. The boom of the stock market in the late 90's was one of the major factors that kept the dollar high against other currencies. One of the reason's for the dollar's recent drop is because of the stock market's dramatic drop. So watch the stock market closely. If the DOW drops another 1000 points in one week chances are the dollar will be dropping right along with it.

Xenono,

Thank you for that very valuable insight. I have a better understanding of the trigger-points after reading your thoughts. I think I know what to watch. I kind-of suspected that there may be a bit more slight-uptrend of the dollar in the near-future barring any more stock market disasters or terrorist attacks. But, I really was guessing blindly. Now I have a bit better understanding. Thank you again!

Here's a chart of the Dollar versus the Thai Baht until 8/21/02

Xenono,

Is it more advantegeous for me to purchase Thai Baht from a bank or other entity here in the US when I think exchange rates are at a good level, prior to my trip? Or, would you recommend otherwise?

Thanks,

Rasta

I don't know much about doing this. When I got worried about the baht falling to 35 to 1 I asked a question on the board about this as well.

Someone (Blazers, I think) responsed that the rate the banks in the US will give you are far lower than anything the baht will fall to making it counterproductive to do this.

He mentioned the way to go was to open a thai bank account and deposit funds into it instead.

Thanks Xenono. - Rasta

Rastaman - Just take your money out with an ATM card. You will get a much better rate having the funds converted this way....

Rate as of 8/24 was 42.3546. You can subscribe at www.xe.com and get daily exchange rates emailed to you.

I just think by December there is a good chance that the Baht will be higher against the dollar than now, so I was looking for a way to "lock the rate" in the near future. - Rasta

The baht is up to 39.2 against the dollar.

That 2000 baht session that was 45 dollars when I last went to Thailand now costs 51 dollars. I hope this trend does not continue, but the dollar is continuing to weak against some major foreign currencies.

The dollar is down to .844 against the Euro and 109 against the Yen. In early 2002, the Yen was as low as 135 against the dollar.

The dollar is currently stable against the Argentine Peso at 2.85 and the Brazilian Real at 2.83. The Mexico Peso is also weak at 11.31. The Philippine Peso is also a decent value at 54.96.

Dollars are currently very cheap for people in Great Britain, the Euro zone, and Japan. I hope they start sending some money our way!

Pisses me off that the Euro gets 46.5 baht while the dollar hovers around 39. just another gift from GW.

Seems like the Baht was around 43 to the dollar when I was in LOS last fall. That would make this falls trip 10% more expensive. Still a bargin, but I fear that this trend my haunt us long after APEC blows over.

McDIJJ

Here's the rates I was getting during my trips this year:

Feb: 42.1 : 1
May: 41.2 : 1
July: 41 : 1
August: 39.6 : 1

Methinks this is not APEC related but the confidence in America (read Bush). Wonder how bad it's gonna suck in the next few months...?

E