I do not listen to the news so much as I look at charts like auto sales and employment.

Employment- This chart has drifted down in the past at the start of recessions.

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ner/charting.aspx

There are many other charts I use in regards to employment, but here is another key:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/JTSQUL

Less people quitting their jobs voluntarily means less confidence and a weaker economy.

Auto sales
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ALTSALES

Auto sales will usually turn down right before a recession.


Im wondering what your thoughts are. Will there be a recession in 2012? Looking at a few graphs and charts tells me the economy might just be fine this year, but my gut tells me we are going to fall into a recession or the "Jim Rogers" scenario. Jim has been right on many things these last few years, but still I just regard him as another talking head on the shows.

The Fed has printed up so much money I believe the economy, on paper, looks ok, but when you get out on the street it is surely a different story.

http://www.newsmaxworld.com/TheAmericas/economic-recovery-recession-schiff/2012/07/07/id/455543


On just completing the worst month of business in the last 8 years,I'm begining to take this prediction more seriously. I'm interested in what our resident, economics 101 guru's have to say

Well, if you get information from newsmax, perhaps you would be interested in buying a bridge that I own in Brooklyn NY.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-02/chrysler-sales-gain-12-as-ceo-sees-best-month-in-4-years.html

"Automakers sold cars and light trucks at an annualized rate of 14.94 million, adjusted for seasonal adjustments, the best pace since March 2008, before the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fueled a global credit crunch. Banks are now charging auto buyers record-low interest rates and carmakers have offered zero-percent financing to attract customers who may not have been able to afford new cars otherwise.

“This notion of the buyer being resilient is certainly there,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president for researcher LMC Automotive. “You’ve got favorable conditions with credit available, interest rates that are extremely low. The conditions for the pocketbook are pretty favorable.”

Industrywide light-vehicle deliveries climbed 13 percent to 1.19 million in September, according to Autodata Corp. The U.S. sales rate exceeded the 14.5 million pace that was the average estimate of 16 analysts in Bloomberg’s survey."

LL, I think you may be doing something wrong.

Just so you know Catonony's link is NOT a one off link, this one is from CNN and says the same basic thing...car sales are good

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/02/news/companies/car-sales/index.html?cnn=yes&hpt=hp_t3

I would agree with you if you were right. NEW cars are up because the manufacturerr is practically giving cars away.
The article and my post speaks of the economy in general NOT the cars business.

Ah, ok. You seemed to state that the last quarter was the worse in 8 years. If you're talking the US in general, there are only a few hundred thousand data points that say that the last quarter wasn't the worst for business in 8 years. It just happened to be the best quarter in 4.5 years for new car sales.

I never took ECON 101, but I tend to think back to my ECON 405, Econometrics, and ECON 430, Monetary Theory, when I make my analysis of the economy.

Ok Cat, so you drank the Obama kool-aid. I refuse to believe everything's ok. I think we are in for some very tough times,no matter who wins this election

Who mentioned anything about Obama? You said the last month was the worst month of business in the last 8 years, I told you what I thought. 800,000 people a month aren't losing their jobs, the economy isn't contracting at an annual rate of 8.9%. Multiple banks aren't going out of business each week, the stock market is booming, interest rates on homes are at record lows. So, I disagree that the last month was the worst for business in the last 8 years. Maybe for you, but not for the vast majority of others. It isn't October 1998 out there, but it isn't October 2008 either.

Cat's last points are well taken. The recovery is slow and fragile, but the economy is in far better shape now than in either 2007 or 2008, when things bottomed out.

Everything is not OK. The Euro-region crisis is unresolved and could trigger major global economic problems. Unemployment is too high and improving too slowly. US debt will eventually be a drag on the economy (oddly, it's not yet, because the US Treasury remains a safe haven for investors despite paying almost nothing). But, all this said, the economy is better now than it was 4 years ago, and business profits continue to rise in general.

I'm self-employed and completely plowed under with work in the construction bussiness.

Can't hite a Sub, they won't even return calls.

I'm seeing an econmy that is ready to break-out in my area.