Subtopic	Posts		Updated
	Archive 01	50		2005/12/26, 10:24 am
	Archive 02	50		2005/12/26, 10:24 am

Here`s a list of the playoff bound teams and the number of times they`ve won the 5 most important stats that correlate with winning the Super Bowl and having playoff success.
Keep in mind there`s still 4 games left and some teams could likely raise their game and some could fall back. But at this point here`s how they stand.
Consider this: The teams that finish 1st or 2cd go on to win the Super Bowl over 80% of the time.

1. Colts 50 wins - It`s pretty much in the books, heads and shoulders above everyone else, should roll to the Super Bowl Championship in most impressive fashion.
2. Broncos 44.5
3.Jax 42
4. Seahawks 41.5 - Pity the fellas that play these guys in their opening playoff game, they`ll lay some wood on someone`s asses.
5. Cincy 40.5
5.Panthers 40.5
7. KC 40
8. Giants 39
9. SD 37.5
10. Boys 37
11. Pitt 36.5
12. Da Bears 36 - Least likely team to win NFC, these guys won`t do well in the playoffs.
13. Bucs 34
14. Falcons 32
15. Pats 27 - 3 out of 4 ain`t half bad, no chance to to get back to SB.

Week 14

Regular Season Futures bet
Colts to win SB (-130) --- 13 units to win 10 units

WEEK 12 RESULTS

Lost 2.3 units
NFL Season to date --- lost 27.67 units

WEEK 13 RESULTS



Won 2.4 units
NFL Season to date --- lost 25.27 units

Foooledagain
The Colts are a Peyton Manning injury away from being a very mediocre team. They rely on one guy perhaps more than any other team in the league. That being said -- good luck with your bet.

Probally so but u can say that with most teams, would the Pats have won last 2 years with out Brady, no way, would Packers won SB without Farve ?

You can`t control injuries that`s just the luck side of the game, it would be foolhearty to place a bet or not place a bet based on someone getting injuried, there`s no way anyone can possible know who or when a injury will occur.

At this point Manning is one of the most durable QBS in the league, he`s never missed a game, now with that being said, without question if he goes down of coarse colts don`t win SB.

I think the pats would of managed fine with drew-- u forget brady was their scrub-- not the star.

FA
It's more the degree the Colts would deteriorate I was referring to. I think more so than any other team in the league.
The point I was making is everyone is just handing the Lombardi Trophy to the Indy-Baltimore Runaways ,but it ain't over yet by any means.
Agree Peyton has been an iron man - plus his release is Marino like so he rarely takes a hard shot, so the chances of an injury are slim .

"on any given day"

I seem to recall something like the unbeatable "greatest show on turf" playing on turf one SB.

FA, good information and I will be taking Seattle that first game to "lay the wood" to someone. Completely agree with that pick. But why wait 4+ weeks for that game when you can take the Skins tomorrow to "lay the wood" to Arizona. Arizona sucks and the Skins D should keep them from scoring much. Portis+Moss=big day. I got it at -3.5 and know it is at -4.5 at a lot of places. Agree, FA?

Hey nice call Due, you`ve been doing pretty well with your " games of the week" . I need 1 more win for the over 7.5 wins on the Skins.

Ave gain per pass att, one of the most important stats in football. It`s not important how many yds a team passes for, what`s important is making big plays in the passing game, the team that makes the bigger plays (has the better ave gain per pass) wins about 80% of all games. Check the box score and look at this stat, it seperates the men from the boys.

Consider this: 22 of 27 (81.5%)teams that won the Super Bowl since 16 game schedule in 1978 outgained their opponents by 1 yd or more.
47 of 54 (87%)teams that made the Super Bowl outgained their opponents by .4 yd

Here`s a list of the playoff teams in ave gain per pass.

1. Colts ------- 7.94-5.43 = 2.51
2. Seahawks ---- 6.83-5.3 = 1.53
3. Panthers ---- 6.80-5.36 = 1.44
4. Pitt -------- 6.86-5.61 = 1.25
5. Cincy ------- 7.14-6.04 = 1.1
6. Dallas ------ 6.43-5.69 = .74
7. SD ---------- 6.60-5.97 = .63
8. Broncos ----- 6.65-6.03 = .62
9. Giants ------ 6.14-5.54 = .6
10. Jax -------- 6.11-5.59 = .52
11. KC --------- 7.02-6.6 = .42
12. Bucs ------- 5.7-5.66 = .04
13. Pats ------- 7.01-7.16 = -.15
14. Falcons ---- 5.45-5.73 = -.28
15. Da Bears --- 4.44-4.76 = -.32

Colts are heads and shoulders better the 2cd best team in the majority of the most impotant stats that correlate to winning the Super Bowl. This rarely ever has happened in history, when it does happen, take it from fooledagain1, it`s over, Colts will roll to the Super Bowl Championship.

Now, I`m not saying this because the Colts are 13-0, their record doesn`t mean anything to me, what matters most is how they`ve dominated their opponents on the field, totally outplaying them in the most important areas that correlate with winning the Super Bowl.

Alot of the so-called experts are picking the Colts simply because they`re 13-0, these are the same experts that picked the Lakers to beat Detroit in the NBA finals and picked Philly over Carolina in the NFC championship game, point being they almost always pick the teams with the best records, what`s so expert about that, an eighth grader could do that.

IMO, Dallas is 1000x better than Washington, and are getting 3 points. Seems like a damned good money line opportunity to me.

Of course Washington had some damned impressive home wins early in the season.

Oh, and I ALWAYS lose!

I like Dallas a lot in this game and agree that the moneyline is the place to be. Porker, what happened with your Cincy over Pitt selection a few weeks ago? That selection cashed in and I hope you were on it. I did but only for ten dollars. Speaking of the Bengals, I like them a lot over the kittens. The Bengals-8.5 are coming of a scare last week, and should get their act together against this horrible Lions team. The Lions are in their typical meltdown mode.
Year after year, teams like the Lions and Saints are horrible. There needs to be a rule where shitty teams get disbanded after so many years of poor performance. They are a drain on the overall league and are impossible to watch. Ten years of shitty play would get a team booted, IMO. That is my rant for the day

WEEK 15

Seattle -4 2cd half over Tenn --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Colts -6.5 2cd half over SD --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

2 team parlay --- 1 unit to win 2.6 units
Seattle -4 2cd half
Colts -6.5 2cd half

DD, it helps when the team you bet on actually shows up to play!

Betting the last few weeks of the season is tricky. You'd THINK that teams fighting for playoff spots would come up big in key games, but often it's quite the opposite: They CHOKE their asses off.

WEEK 15

Boys -3 (-128) 2cd half over skins --- 1.28 units to win 1 unit

The Skins are fighting for a playoff spot and did come up big, it`s not that some teams choke, it`s teams like Dallas are mediore inconsistent teams. Many teams fighting for playoff spots are the same way.

This Sunday lets see if the Skins get some payback for the drubbing they took in New Jersey. They were humilated box to wire IMO, Skins get the win and cover.

This is the scariest time to bet NFL football when the games start getting meaningless. Tread lightly if betting. I was at the Caliente last Tuesday and some guy in front of me was putting major coin on the Saints and the Browns. Fooledagain, was that you?

Ha,ha,ha,ha, good one dude !!! No wasn`t me, maybe one of my students.

I agree, hard to bet when teams have nothing to play for.

I got the over 7.5 wins with the Skins, now how bout a division title, I think they`re still alive for division title.

The Skins are about 15 to 1 to win the NFC, and ten dollars of my money is going on this. I never thought I would be saying this, but the Skins look like one of the best teams in the league. Watch out for teams that peak near the end of the season. This team is dangerous.

Ride the Skins baby !!!! I agree Due, other than Seattle, the Skins are as good as anyone else in NFC.

You might want to read my post from last season in archive 23, dated weds jan 05, 2005, 7:43pm , maybe hombre could move the post here if possible.

There`s no correlation to being a hot team coming into the playoffs and doing well in the playoffs. Teams playing poorly coming in do as well as hot teams coming into the playoffs, it`s true, read the post.

Teams coming into the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak cover the spread 73% of the time in their opening playoff game. Both the Jets and Vikes came into the playoffs last season on 2 game losing streaks and both won outright as dogs.
And the Jets who backed into the playoffs beat the hottest team coming in , the Chargers who were 10-0-1 ATS coming in to the playoffs.

The Best Teams in Total Yards Margin;

Since the 16 game schedule in 1978
21 of 27 (77.8%) Super Bowl winners outgained their opponents by 45 yards or more per game in the regular season.
46 of 54 (85%) Super Bowl representatives outgained their opponents by 20 yards or more per game in the regular season.

47 of 54 (87%) Super Bowl representatives defenses gave up 330 yards or less per game in the regular season.



1. Colts ------ 372- 300 = +72 (clearly the best team with the best chance to win the SB)
2. Seahawks --- 378-317 = +61 ( Strong chance to make SB, only NFC team that could play with the big boys in the AFC)
3. Denver ----- 368-318 = +50 (Possible SB winner, if by some miracle Colts should lose))
4. Cincy ------ 371-325 = +46
The 4 teams playing on Super Bowl Winning Level (+45 yds or more)

5. SD ---------- 356-314 = +42
6. Pitt -------- 321-282 = +39 (slim chance to make SB)
7. Skins ------- 334-296 = +38 (possible SB rep, if somehow Seahawks get beat)
8. KC ---------- 377-339 = +38 (slim chance to make SB)
9. G-men-------- 359-328 = +31 (possible SB rep, if somehow Seahawks get beat)
10.Pats -------- 358-327 = +31 (don`t be fooled by this teams late season run, slim chance to make SB)
11.Jax --------- 321-292 = +29 (slim chance to make SB )
12.Boys -------- 329-304 = +25 (no chance to make SB)
Teams playing well enough to make the Super Bowl (+20 or more)

13.Bucs -------- 295-276 = +19 (slim chance to make SB
14.Carolina ---- 303-287 = +16
15.Da Bears ---- 257-274 = -17 ( most likely bye team to lose 1st playoff game, slim chance to make SB
3 teams you won`t likely see in Detroit on Super Bowl Sunday

There are two great games to bet on,imo. I will take the Skins+2.5 and the Giants-3. FA, what do you think?

Sorry, but I just saw where the Bengals are +3 at home against the Steelers. WTF?? I'll tske the Bengals on the moneyline. What am I missing? This seems to obvious.

Due - Skins and Cincy both look good on the ml, Jax +7.5 and on the ml looks good as well.

Have you seen any of the recent Bengals games ?? They cannot stop the run - a huge problem against the Stelers. Add that to a healthier Rothlischberger and the Tiggers have their hands full.They also have ZERO playoff experience. This is the game with the biggest chance for a home team upset IMHO. I'll take Pittsburgh thanks.

I'm with you, KM. That being said, I am a Steeler's fan, but I have bet against them this year. Bettis will be motivated (his probable last chance at the Super Bowl) and we've beaten the Bengals in Cincy this year, already. Add to this the fact that we've been on a tear for the last 4 or 5 weeks. I certainly wouldn't call this a Pittsburgh lock, but I do think the Steelers are the most likely road winner of the Wildcard Round. Steelers (-3), makes this a tricky bet. I think the line should probably be reversed. The casual fan's perception of Steelers vs. Bengals likely influenced where the bookmakers put the line...and alot of casual fans start betting come playoff time. I think the Steelers will win and (likely) push or cover. I don't feel this strongly enough to bet the game, however...at least not for any serious money.

Manos.

(Message edited by mano_poderosa on January 03, 2006)

OK Steeler fans - But consider this first -

Playoff teams that lost their last 2 regular season games ATS are - 77% covering in their opening playoff game in the past 20 years(4-1, 80%, last season, including Jets over Chasrgers) - points to Cincy ats

Playoff teams in their first playoff game in at least 3 years vs teams who`ve been in the playoffs - The team making it`s first appearance is again believe it or not 77% covering in it`s opening playoff game in the past 15 years. - points to Cincy ats

Under Cohwer the Steelers are -
7-0 vs teams 10-6 or worse in the playoffs
1-9 vs teams 11-5 or better
2-7 vs division champs
The Steelers have never beaten a division champ with 11 wins or more in the playoffs
points to Cincy on the ml

BTW did anyone see the stat on ABC - QB`S making their first playoff appereance vs a QB with at least 10 playoff games and 1 Super Bowl win - well the QB with his first appereance won 9 times to the SB QB`S 4 wins

Playoff experience doesn`t mean anything, this is very common in the NFL Playoffs, the teams with experience don`t win anymore often than teams with no experience,

playoff experience is a MYTH perputrated by the so-called experts who aren`t really experts at all, but mostly clueless people whom got their jobs based on many other factors and not because they know anything about the facts and history of the game.

I`ve run these so-called experts under the table msany times on the site and I`ll do it again next week, watch.

Jesus, I hope the Steelers/Bengals game is on in the next hour, here. As a fan (and one with no money on the line in this one) I'd be more than happy with a Bengals cover and a Steelers victory.

Manos.

Welllll ---so far first year QBs are 0-2 this year.
Stats like that are meaningless in regards to any individual game. It's just drivel to fill up airtime.

IMO the only stat that matters is that Pitt is the better overall team and Cincy matches up poorly with them when the Stelars are healthy. Cincy is a sieve against the run. Bettis et al will romp all over the field.

Of course I could be wrong .

The experts that set the regular season lines sure kicked the crap out of you this year. Perhaps you should worry less about what everyone else is thinking and concentrate on picking the team's that gonna be better on any given Sunday.

BTW, the PI babes say hi!

Fooledagain next opportunity to lose more units, What is exactly the value of 1 unit? i hope it is not part of the mortgage

Washington
Seattle -9 o/u 42

New England
Denver -3 43.5 o/u

Pittsburgh
Indianapolis -9.5 48 o/u

Carolina
Chicago -3 31 o/u

Home teams win 80% on this particular weekend. 2 great games for the afc, 2 solid games on the nfc side.

KM-- good call on Pitt. IMHO Palmer's departure made a huge difference, but I'm not one for violins.

New England. Hrrmmm-- I'll take my chances with the pats once again. They are on the uptick and I don't think Denver is all that special-- very beatable.

Indy and the chica boyz should pull thru, but I don't aprticular like the spreads.

OK critics , I`ve now posted winning records in 11 of 12 playoffs entered ands have won 262.04 units in 2 years of playoffs picks, if all u critics think u know so much then feel free anytime to but ur picks on the site and challenge me, my information will rip any of u a new ass. ok, put up or shut up.

Yea Tom Brady is 10-0 also , what does that mean now, I rocked all the experts again with my call of a best bet on Denver and won. Being 10-0 doesn`t mean anything nor does having experience, it means nothing , now that doesn`t mean more experience teams lose all games , yes they win but they lose just as many as they win , meaning if u bet experienced teams over time ur`ll fin ish around 50%, what`s the point.

Want more proof, consider this - When the Pats won their first Super Bowl they went 2-0-1 Against the Spread, in their next two postseason when they now were a SB winner with exerience they went 3-3 ATS, and 1-1 AST this year to bring their grand total to just 4-4 ATS with experince. They did better with no experience, this is very common in the NFL, yet no one see`s it coz all the experts say it so , therefore it is, well fooledagain1`s telling u it ain `t.

All the information that correlates to winning SB and having playoff success pointed to Denver and they rolled the Pats.

Denver was lucky in that game and only won because of fluke special teams turnovers and the most poorly officiated game in playoff history. Denver was completely outplayed in that game at all levels so you won your bets on luck.

FA-- hopefully your gainfully employed outside the sports analysis field...

No luck involved, Denver dominated the game on turnovers which is a big part of the game, totally out playing Pats 5-1.

All you Rookies who think you know so much about the NFL Playoffs and sports in general , you love to talk the talk, let`s see you walk the walk with your picks right here on the site.

I`ve walked the walk, posting winning records in 11 of 12 playoffs and winning 262.04 units in 2 playoff seasons.

I think we all know why you won`t post your picks don`t we ? If your information and knowledge of sports is so great step to the table and prove it. I have. Cased closed, none of you if given the next 10 years could match what I did in 2 playoff seasons.

Want to know why. You watch to much ESPN and listen to noonsense things like Brady being 10-0 in playoffs, hot teams peaking at the right time, playoff experience, non of which correlates to winning over time. The key being over time, sure you`ll post a winning week every now and then but over time it`s a losing propisition.

I will bury any one of you that wants to post your picks here throughout the 2006 playoffs, anyone one of you know it alls ready to step to the table ?

Know why, my information correlates to winning over time that`s why I`ve won over time, yours doesn`t.

Any one can talk, that doesn`t mean anything , step to the table and prove it.

I find it very funny that the guy who step to the table and won in 11 of 12 playoffs, cashed 10 consecutive parlays in the 2005 playoffs, went 24-6 ATS in a 30 game stretch, pick Detroit to win the NBA tittle at the beginning of the playoffs and bet every game on Det over the Lakers and went 5-0, call the exact margin of victory 2005 NCAA championship game with Carilina over ILL by 5 and they won by5, called a best bet of Denver over 10-0 Brady and won,

but I don`t know anything about sports betting right, you rookies who`d post a losing record know more than I right , that`s why you`d lose coz you know more.

I quess that explains everything now doesn`t it.

Dude, 17 WEEKS IN A ROW you were the joke of the site, but NOW you're some sort of expert because you got a couple right? You were the joke of the site because you kept betting shitty ass teams trying to prove something to whoever you call 'experts' instead of actually trying to win cash, and you lost your ass week after week after week. And now, like losers usually do, you figure you're 'due' so you go crazy with your betting units. You keep betting 43 units a game and you're gonna be homeless. Period. And we'll all feel sorry for you despite the fact that you're being obnoxious.

No one will ever deny your hot streak in the NBA playoffs a few years back. Doesn't make you ANY sort of smart bettor, and that's a lesson you need to learn, and fast.

Unless of course you're betting pennies and your dog is the sports book (which I have a sneaking sispicion is the case).

MY handicapping advice: DON'T BET WITH MONEY YOU DON'T WANT TO THROW OUT THE WINDOW.

BTW, you're now down 23 against the spread in the Indy-Pitt game. Don'tcha just HATE the way your butt puckers when that happens?

Did you ever think we don't post bets because we're sports fans and not gamblers? My cash is put to much better uses.

Now go get back to sweating over todays picks... and start watching ESPN for some real insight.


how's those colts looking?

Colts will be much better with the wind in the 2nd quarter!

I`ve said over and over on the site , my specialty is the playoffs, ok do you understand what i am saying.
I`ve said over and over on the site , i am not an expert in the regular season, i repeat i am not an expert in t5he regular season, i repeat i aqm not an expert in the regular season.

do you understand now ??????

In the playoffs i`ve dominated on this site winnin g in 11 of 12 playoffs over 2 years, i wouldn`t call that winning a few of games and claiming to be an expert.

I`ve won 11 of 12 playoffs , 262.04 units over 2 years.

I`ve had runs that no one has ever seen before in sports betting and done it often.


You clueless rookies remind me of the high school kid who sat on the side lines claiming he could play the game better than anyone else, he knew more than anyone else and claiming how good he was, but never ever, ever stepping on to the field to play the game.

By my rough quick count, you're at -19 units and counting so far in the playoffs, genius. Am I missing something?

What was the line in War Games: "The winning move is... not... to... play"

Live remote from fantasy betting central: Fooledagain's dog is in firm control of all pennies in the house, and anxiously awaiting reserves to be brought in from the neighbors and/or mom and dad.

Of course that's the BEST case scenario. Worst case: Running from the bookies in some scene like the Russians in Leaving Las Vegas.

My playoff betting record? 0-0-0, lost ZERO units.

I'm sure you'll be betting 75 'units' per game next week to try and beat that.

well said pork-- ditto that.

FA was "winning" during the playoffs, because over a very short period of time, its possible to beat the spread. The longer one bets against the spread, the closer to 50% won/loss you get, not counting the vigorish.

To say it another way, if you call heads or tails in a coin flip 1000 times, you are likely to get 500 calls right. If the coin is only flipped 10 times, you are possibly going to call 90 percent right, or 90 percent wrong. A small number of events can generate wild swings in outcomes.

As I have said many times, FA should take a course in basic quantative analysis, so he doesn't get all excited about winning twice in a row.

"Week 14

Regular Season Futures bet
Colts to win SB (-130) --- 13 units to win 10 units"

Don't forget to count this one, too.