Posted by lerkher on February 11, 2001 at 05:03:24:
In Reply to: Re: good news, bad news & really bad news posted by Erip on February 10, 2001 at 10:42:13:
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a long-winded analysis based on my half-assed understanding of the situation. baja has been in the PAN camp for some time, & the 3am curfew last year was consistent with their conservative agenda. at that time the response was what we have all come to expect in tj, spotty compliance to start, and a general drift to ignoring the whole thing. probably a certain amount of baksheesh involved. that was when PRI was still in power nationally. now PAN is in control of the government, corruption is a major target (at least they are saying so) & the legal/law enforcement institutions are under a microscope. the curfew was a law on the books not being enforced, conspicuous & easy to target - as are zonas de tolerencia in general. the question is whether the old patterns are being eliminated permanently or if this is just another short term upheaval. this is new territory for just about everyone. some significant political changes are taking place in mexico right now, & we are experiencing some of the fall out. the changeover from PRI to PAN has been described as similar to the collapse of the communist party in eastern europe. PRI was a one party centralized, authoritarian regime for just about as long as the communists were the same in the FSU & satellites. right now fox & PAN are throwing out all kinds of plans & promises & PRI is pretty disorganized. fox has raised a lot of expectations along the way. it remains to be seen if he can deliver. the chances of a romanian style bloodbath are reasonably remote (we won't allow it on our doorstep), but a less violent czech style changeover is certainly possible. five years in transition is not unreasonable. look at russia today. however, revolutions (even peaceful ones) break a lot of rice bowls, with some very powerful interests involved - the kind that might react pretty strongly. someone's income is taking a hit in la zona, and whoever they are, they are used to getting their way. be prepared for a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future. if the US economy tanks, maybe very very bumpy. |
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