Ben I am guessing 8450 for next Fridays Dow

Ldvee DOW 8,900 next week

Kendricks I'll take 8350.

Ben, Ledvee and Kendricks

Is this the spot on the board where we can actually get solid information for making stock picks?

Ben, can you set out some ground rules about what we can discuss here with you about the market. I'm not in the market except for some mutual funds that are being managed by the mutual fund advisor. I'd like to learn more, and feel you must have some good advice for those in my position. Actually, I know alot about the market but I'm timid. Kind of like why I like with one good provider in the zone, but I don't know about all the other great providers out there because I feel satisfied with my fav. But, can I learn more from you, or are you too advanced for me? Or maybe you are just playing around with this part of the board.

What's with this predicting the DOW for the next week? How about Dow 7800 for next Fri. I think the next week or two people will be contacting their brokers to dump the losers they've been hanging onto all year and at least take a tax break.

How do you think people should position themselves for the next year, or is this not the place for your comments?

8750

Peace, love and understanding,
D

Nayarit,

When I started owning individual stocks I quickly came to two conclusions:

1. There are too many variables to be able to quess accurately what's going to happen.

2. If one could come up with a winning guessing system, the stock market would cease to exist, its very existence is based upon its unpredictabiity. There must be losers.

There are some truisms like "buy low sell high". The selling high part is the tough part. I've found selling a stock I've made money on a difficult thing to do. I owned a lot of a particular stock in the boom of the late 90s. I watched it go up by almost 10x. Did I sell? No god damn it. I watched it plummet and finally got out at 2x. Not bad for 2 years or so, but if I sold at 10x I could have quit working. Oh well.

The decline of the past 2.5 years is unprecedented, except for 1929 and the years thereafter. It's PROBABLY a good time to start buying low. However, most of my money is managed by a professional and he's sitting on a large pile of cash. IOW, he's not buying in yet.

I've placed a large bet on SURE and will pull the sell trigger on a large part of it after the FDA approves the process for ready-to-eat meats. It's a speculative story stock, with I think an excellent story. If you're interested, go to the yahoo message board for SURE and read posts by a guy named "gengcpatton". His posts are all facts and tell the story pretty well.

Get an online account and start learning with small bets. Be aware though, the tuition for the University of Wall Street can be expensive.

Good luck!

BTW your guess of 7800 would mean a 9.8% drop in one week. Possible, but not likely for an index. Certainly possible for an individual stock, hopefully not SURE ;-).

Nayarit,

Ldvee covered a lot of ground with his answer and I agree 100% with his statements above.

I have been a licensed stock broker beginning in 1969, although I have been in many other types of business venture over the years.I have been investing in the stock market since I was a junior in college and I am still fascinated by the market.

Investing in the market has a great deal of risk and any advice or discussions we have on this board go with the caveat of "buyer beware" and YOU can lose a substantial amount or all your money by listening to discussions on the internet.

Ben I am guessing 8450 for next Fridays Dow

Ldvee DOW 8,900 next week

Kendricks I'll take 8350.

Dodster 8750 (Footnote that Dog waited until Monday night for his guess)

Nayarit How about Dow 7800 for next Fri.

Nayarit, the info I have learned here from Ben about covered call writing is priceless. I had my own ideas about stock selection I was developing, and earlier this year, when I was reading Ben's description of his covered call writing strategy, a 40,000 candlepower lightbulb flashed on in my head, when I realized that his covered call strategy would fit perfectly with the ideas I was developing.

I have since evolved my stock selection strategy to fit the covered calls program, and it has been working out very well for me.

That said, the part about the Dow picks is just for fun, and although we are trying to win, no decisions should ever be made on short term market predictions from anyone, as these are more luck than skill. Other than for the week when I hit is precisely, which was pure skill, obviously.

I also very highly recommend reading Value Investing Made Easy by Janet C. Lowe.

Anyone know anything about Del Monte (DLM).

They seem to be doing well and stock is selling for 10 times earnings.

Some money manager was hawking it this morning on CNBC. I remember him pushing it a year ago.

It has a really ugly chart going back to 1999, but of course that includes most stocks during that time period.

No options available.

I am meeting Sugar Pie for shopping, lunch,etc today. I will ask her what she thinks.

Never mind.

I wouldn't buy that stock with Kendrick's money!!

4M in cash, 700M in debt, negative net worth, no options available.... is there any limit to the muber of shares I am allowed to buy???

Number of shares, I meant...

Sugar Pie suggested comprar por ropas at Plaza Rio and my reward would be better than money. So no Del Monte

Leather jacket,etc, and later to Los Pinos for hours of sexo con jacuzzi. SP was right!

Ben, Ldvee and Kendricks,
Thanks for all the input. Don't stop this discussion. With all that I have been doing , I just haven't had time to follow the markets in detail and really get an education. You guys may give me courage if I can involve myself with what I am picking up here. I have seen many clients of mine lose big in the markets, and only a few winners. With those observations I feel the odds are against me. But, I'm retiring from one profession in February, as I continue another. But I'll have more time to learn in a couple of months. I'm probably too little educated to make intellegent choices, however I'm willing to learn from experienced people. Should I rely on what I learn from your discussions or just throw a dart.

Last Jan. my mom had me buy with her money, so it is her account, the following. Wash Mutual, IBM, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Amgen, Genesse & Wyoming, and Health South for a long term hold. After a year she's down 40%. Since I had given approval to these, and since she says, the money will be my inheritance, she doesn't mind that it's not going up now. Think I should make any changes here or stay the course?

For me personally, I'm more invested in San Diego real estate. I'll not be liquid until the fall of 2004. Hope I don't miss all the low buying opportunities during that time.

I'll be in touch and may even meet you guys when I want to give up anomity in the zone.

Nayarit, some sincere advice. Keep your anonymity.

I own Amgen. I bought 400 shares last May at $52.08 and another 400 shares in June at $41.47. Since that time I have picked up $2,797 in option income. My average price is $43.28 and I have agreed to sell the stock at $47.50 on December 20th(Sold 8 Dec 47 1/2 Calls). The stock (as I post) is selling at $47.38.

It would be perfect if Amgem would just stay right there. I don't want the stock to go up until after Dec. 20th. It is a great company and I think it could be a $60 stock within a year.

I also own some QCOM which I bought last January at around $48 but I am break even on the stock currently as I have received $8000 in option income.

Your other stocks all seem pretty good, except for Healthsouth and I know nothing about GWR.

I really like Microsoft but currently don't own it. What a cash cow.

Dogster,

I hope you come to the Fiesta Thursday night so I can introduce you to everyone as Superman.

LOL. Let me know if I make an appearance. Ha ha. Do me a favor and at least find someone worthy of impersonation ... Dogster does not quite cut it.

-Superman-

Ok I will introduce myself as your father.

After all, we do have similar interests in women.

I can't think of a more worthy representation.

Damn,

I mentioned yesterday I liked Amgen and it is up $3.00 to over $50 today.

I will let 400 shares go if it is above $47 1/2 next Friday, but will probably buy back 4 of the Dec. 47 1/2 calls.

Ding Ding Ding!!!

And the winner is Ben.

Man was Ben lucky on Friday.

Pick 8500 for next weeks

With Kendricks in a close second. I'll take 8200 next week.

Hey,

Ldvee, T-Bone, Dogster, Ronald Reagan, Nayarit, Puranero, etc.

Donde esta Dow?

yikes, it's Sunday afternoon already and haven't done my weekly accounting, well here it is:

Date________DOW__________%_____NASDAQ_______%_____S&P________%_____SURE______%
17-Aug-02___8,778.06___________1,361.01___________928.77___________2.5___
24-Aug-02___8,872.96____1.07___1,380.62____1.42___940.86____1.28___2.38____-5.04
31-Aug-02___8,663.50___-2.42___1,314.85___-5.00___916.07___-2.71___2.50_____4.80
08-Sep-02___8,427.20___-2.80___1,295.30___-1.51___893.92___-2.48___2.28____-9.65
13-Sep-02___8,312.69___-1.38___1,291.40___-0.30___889.81___-0.46___1.85___-23.24
21-Sep-02___7,986.02___-4.09___1,221.09___-5.76___845.39___-5.25___1.58___-17.09
28-Sep-02___7,701.45___-3.70___1,199.16___-1.83___827.37___-2.18___1.89____16.40
05-Oct-02___7,528.40___-2.30___1,139.90___-5.20___800.58___-3.35___1.72____-9.88
13-Oct-02___7,850.29____4.10___1,210.47____5.83___835.32____4.16___1.62____-6.17
18-Oct-02___8,322.40____5.67___1,287.86____6.01___884.39____5.55___3.51____53.85
26-Oct-02___8,443.99____1.44___1,331.13____3.25___897.65____1.48___3.89_____9.77
02-Nov-02___8,517.64____0.86___1,360.70____2.17___900.96____0.37___4.84____19.63
08-Nov-02___8,537.13____0.23___1,359.28___-0.10___894.74___-0.70___5.34_____9.36
15-Nov-02___8,579.09____0.49___1,411.14____3.68___909.83____1.66___5.69_____6.15
23-Nov-02___8,804.84____2.56___1,468.74____3.92___930.55____2.23___5.11___-11.35
29-Nov-02___8,896.09____1.03___1,478.78____0.68___936.31____0.62___5.39_____5.19
08-Dec-02___8,645.77___-2.90___1,422.44___-3.96___912.23___-2.64___4.37___-23.34
15-Dec-02___8,433.71___-2.51___1,362.42___-4.41___889.48___-2.56___4.25____-2.82

Off to AB then El Parador for a few hour romp. Best way to end the week 8^).

8600 for the DOW. 9000 if Saddam is dead.

DOW 8301

T_Bone, that was an excellent strategic move. Had you picked 8300, someone else could have picked 8400, and you would only have won had the Dow closed above 8250, and below 8350.

Due to the 100 point rule, no one can now pick 100 points above you, as that would put them within 100 points of Ben. Accordingly, you will now win if the Dow closes at 8251 or higher, so long as it is below 8401, instead of 8350, giving yourself an extra 50 points in your window.

I always appreciate great strategy, and had to compliment you on this.

Dow 7900. Still looking for sales of dogs.

I used this same stratgy a few weeks ago and no one acknowledged my superior intellect. I also think i lost.

I may have to revise the rules for all you cunning hombres.

Ben, that's because when you did it, we all figured it was just a typo.

Uh Kendricks,

I hate to tell you this, but CRXA may explode on Wednesday/Thursday. Big drug that they have invested 900 million in will be up for FDA approval (as to moving forward) and will be announced on Wednesday. Most of what I read is positive, but you never know about biotechs and the FDA.

Should I but another 1000 shares and not cover?

Kendricks,

Tuesday afternoon a FDA advisory panel will meet regarding a cancer drug called Bexxar. It might have a dramatic effect on CRXA shares.

Thank you for your compliment Kendricks, I guess I am just copying a move from Ben's playbook. Maybe I can take out his Sugar Pie as well?

Ldvee is looking good so far with his statistical guesswork.

T Bone stick to guessing the Dow.

More fun than Sugar Pie.

Ldvee 8600 for the DOW. 9000 if Saddam is dead

Ben Pick 8500 for next weeks

T_Bone DOW 8301

Kendricks I'll take 8200 next week

Nayarit Dow 7900. Still looking for sales of dogs.

Kendricks,

Good news on CRXA today.

Trading was halted for the last 3 hours today.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Ken Ken,

Crxa traded as high as $9.00 after hours.

Premarket it trade from $8.50-$8.80.

Damn it why didn't I look at the December options.

I am stuck until January.

I just hope it stays up! That is probably what Sugar Pie will be saying later today. I never have problems when I look at that chica. Good stock.

"Shares of Corixa (CRXA: news, chart, profile) tacked on 70 cents, or 10 percent, to $7.95 after an FDA advisory panel endorsed the company's experimental anti-cancer drug, Bexxar."

This is the kind of stock trading that I think is fun. Doing the research looking for new products, getting in before the masses know and then out after the pop due to the news release. Sort of the old buy on the rumor, sell on the news theory.

This is also why I'm hanging onto my SURE investment. Rumor has it that the FDA will approve a dramatic expansion of food irradiation, soon to be called "cold pasteurization" (that's also in the gov regulatory works), to ready-to-eat meats like cold cuts and hotdogs.

How much I sell on that news I'm not sure. I will definitely get my investment back. I may let the rest ride.

Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money Sex&Money.

Merril Lynch put a buy on SURE last January when it was a $10 stock. A G Edwards put in a strong buy on this stock in April when it was at $6. Roth Capital(who the hell are they?) put in a strong buy in June when it was trading around $5.50. They must really love it at $4.30 which is its current price.

I just can't bring myself to buy that stock. I don't know why, but I just wonder if they are going to find something wrong or dangerous about eating irradated (sp?) food. Also how commercially sucessful wiil it be? I guess a few more outbreaks of e coli (inevitable) might really give it a boost.

Ldvee, you know a lot about this company apparently, what do you think about the science?

Ten times normal volume on CRXA with 5.5 million shares traded so far today. Stock is up about .50 at$7.75 from a high today of $8.80.

I just want it to stay above $7.50 until Fridays close so Kendricks owes me a beer.

Sugar Pie and I are going to celebrate today.

This CRXA trade, so far, is the stuff that dreams are made of. I hope it stays about where it is (or drops to 7.49), so I can buy more and sell the January calls.

Buy More??

Porque?

Just hope it stays above $7.50 through Friday.

Man what a day in Tijuana!

Ben,

Here's a list of scientific and other organizations that endorse the process. This is nothing new technically. Using ionizing radiation to kill bacteria in food has been studied for over 70 years. The first patent to do so was issued in the 1930s. Unfortunately Hiroshima and Nagasaki caused irrational fear of anything having to due with radiation.

http://www.surebeam.com/why_buy.html

The dramatic drop in the price this summer was due somewhat to the general market drop and mostly because millions of shares were given to Titan shareholders at the spin off, who then sold. The high prices in 2001 were due to the anthrax scare.

In the past month they have increased the float to generate working capital and to fund an employee stock option program, thus diluting the price.

In addition to killing food pathogens, the process also disinfests imported fruits and vegetables. Currently methyl bromide (I think that's the chemical) is used and its use has been banned after 2005 because of serious environmental effects. People are betting that irradiation will replace it.

Dairy Queen is the first burger joint to sell irradiated burgers and it has gone well. They are expanding nationwide. My dream is that McDonalds or Jack in the Box jump onboard.

It's a big gamble. Mostly because everyone's first question is just like yours, is it safe? And the answer is yes. The only reason you asked is because of the dreaded word "RADIATION" which makes people think nuclear bombs. In fact, it's true that cooking food at high temperatures like in a frying pan causes all sorts of nasty chemicals to be formed, but nobody cares. So, irrational fears and the failure of our educational system to teach people about science that has been known for over 100 years may cause this company to fail and 10s of thousands of people will die and millions will get sick in the next 10 years because of ignorance.

Oh, I see Ldvee,

We should buy this stock for the greater good of mankind. That way those Big Macs will be more healthy when I drive up to the window. HA

Just kidding.

I have read where some parents are protesting that the government subsidised school meals should not be irradiated. That takes some chutzpa I guess.

I think the irradiation of of school lunches is a fine idea. Afterall, kids are the most sensitive to bad stuff and therefore it would be an excellent experiment.

Sincerely,

Dr. Mengela

And, of course, sophisticated senior citizens who expose themselves to the bacteria laden streets of La Zona Norte would also be excellent experimental subjects. 8^)

How about a portable irradiation device I could put up the panocha before using it? Now THAT I would invest in!

I can see it now... ZZZAAAAPP!! Okay baby now I'll DATY.

I phrased that wrong, Ben. If it closes below 7.5 on Friday, I will just sell more options. If it closes above 7.5, I may buy back the stock, and sell more options.

Kendricks,

I would let this one be taken away(don't buy it back), but my judgement hasn't been very good the last couple of days.

In fact i think you will be lucky if it closes above $7.50 tomorrow. By the way if it were to close at $7.51 0r $7.52, there would be a good chance that the option owner would not excersize his option.

I revisited the stock, and you are obviously right. Besides, the premiums for the January calls are now way, way down. If it doesn't get assigned, selling it on Monday will be the smart thing to do.

What if you wrote the January $5 calls?

Would that pencil?

The January 5's are currently selling for 2.35, and the stock is trading at 7.36. Not a very good percentage gain!!!