Wow, JDK praising SURE and LDVEE praising Bush both within a 24 hour period. Imagine that...

Dow 8600

I almost choked when I saw Ldvee compliment Bush.

Things are very dicey in Iraq right now but the U. S. has a good chance of being in a good position politically, strategically and economically and allot of other "lys" over the next year

Fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuck. Mother fucker. WINS up almost a buck, the day after I sold it.

This is why I am chilling out on the more frantic trading activity. I bought WINS based upon its chart, but since I didn't know much about the company, I sold when it didn't follow through right away.

From now on (other than covered call trades, of course) I am only buying when a company I like is selling for a good price, and looks ready to move up technically. The daytrader mentality is not one that I believe is profitable in the long run (without a heavy supply of luck), and without good reasons to hold onto a stock, it is too easy to get whipsawed.

WINS up well over a buck. That really chaffs my ass.

"I almost choked when I saw Ldvee compliment Bush."

Yeah well, one thing I've learned via managing people at work is that you don't argue with success. In hindsight, I'll admit that from the initial UN speech to today, the whole Iraq thing was/is pretty damn impressive. Besides, my rant was 100 proof schnapps fueled. That stuff always make me rant about something ((((hic)))).

My B-day is Wednesday, first smokeless day??? I'm going to give it the old fashioned cold turkey go.

grrrrr

Good Luck Ldvee.

It ain't easy, but it is worth it.

Just bought some FWHT. Ldvee, my birthday present to you is this advice: by some FWHT close to 12. You will have a happy birthday tomorrow!

I got back into EELN today too, at a better price than were I sold. Looking for a pop up.

Hmmm, a dot com er. That's something I'll look into. I've been writing computer software for over 30 years and at one time had an arpanet account while doing nuclear weapons work. I bet I end up in a nursing home endlessly mumbling IP addresses as I bounce off the walls.

Problem is that I don't have an online brokerage account anymore. I have to get on the phone and filter my trades through my hired hand. Had one in the early days and quickly came to the conclusion that I don't know what I'm doing so I turned it all over to a pro at smith barney a few years ago. If he doesn't do anything stupid, which he hasn't, he'll be doing better than I did.

Maybe it's time to move a few kilobucks to an online brokerage and play.

I used to use Fidelity. Any suggestions?

short TMPW
go long WRPT

For an online discount brokerage, Scottrade is very good (in my experience) and only charges $7 for stock transactions. I like Scottrade better than E*Trade or Ameritrade.

I couldn't find much info on WRPT, screamingeagle, other than the filings posted on its website. What is it you like about it?

Kendricks and Ldvee,

What do you think of Bush? (BSH)

Ben picks a Dow 8150 for next week.

Kendricks 8349 next week for me.

Ldvee Por eso, an optimistic DOW 8500.

T_Bone Dow 8600 (Late as usual)

Wow, what a day for BSH! That's one boat that could be worth jumping on if there's a pullback. I'll have to look at it tonight.

PMID and FWHT had nice days today, too.

BSH,

Coming off what looks like 10 year low. Operating income dropped a factor of 10 in the 4th qtr. Wonder what happened.

Interesting PR today:
"Bush Industries has no explanation for stock rise"

Located in Jamestown NY. An age old furniture manufacturing town south of Buffalo.

One of those "probably won't go much lower" stocks.

Well, 5:45 AM, 45 minutes to the market open, looks like there's going to be a 10,600 share sell order in for SURE. Time to throw in the towel. Plan didn't work.

Lick my wounds and get on with life.

As Perry White used to say, "Great Ceasar's ghost, losing money sucks!"

Still some "unSUREity" but the idea feels good.

I'm out.

yikes

You will Sure regret selling out.

Benwhostillownsthiscrap

They layed-off 25% of their work force yesterday. The folks who were working the overseas installations. Engineers, technicians and such.

Just sold my 1,000 shares od SURE at $2666.00 net after taking out $54 for commission.

No more crap for mr unless Kendricks gives me a convincing story.

I have to go down to TJ this afternoon and drown my sorry in a young little Honey Pie.

Surebeam
Price
Date Description Price Per Share

2-06-03 Bought 1,000 Shares of SURE $4,694.00 $4.69

5-01-03 Sold 1,000 Shares of SURE $2,666.00 $2.67

5-01-03 Net Loss $2,028.00 $2.03

Remember When I said I needed a tax write-off. Will now I got it. Damn or as Kendricks said the other day Fuckity, fuckity, fuck fuck fuck

Wow, that is an intersting SURE saga.

I sold a couple of stocks today that weren't working out, and still own CERG, EELN, and PMID. I really don't like CERG and EELN all that much, though, so I'm really just waiting for a chance to dump them.

My biggest problem lately: while searching for trades I really liked, I have gotten sucked into a daytrader mentality, and have bought stocks just because they looked (to me) like they were getting ready for a technical pop.

This is a bullshit strategy, that I have been lucky to roughly break even on. No more. It's just gambling, pure and simple, and does nothing but generate lots of $7 commissions for my discount brokers.

Hopefully I will soon have a convincing story for Ben. I no longer plan to buy any stocks for myself, unless I have a convincing story for me.

Trading should be looked at like poker. Don't invest heavily unless the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.

(Message edited by kendricks on May 01, 2003)

I agree with everything in your above post. EVERYTHING!

You are a very good student and have learned well. Like most things, it is a never ending education.

Daytraders are almost 100% guaranteed to lose money if they do it long enough.

I love to play poker and very seldom lose, but I fold allot.

Thanks, Ben. I have a great deal more study and research to do, but greatly enjoy my time spent learning about the markets. It is the only game I know of more interesting and complex than chess or poker. I really do appreciate all of your commentary.

On the other hand my mis-adventure with SURE was based on knowing a great deal about the company, the process, and truly believeing that using electron linear accelerators to irradiate meat to eliminate pathogens makes as much sense as heat pasteurization for milk. It seemed like a SURE thing to me and I thought I was pretty lucky to be in on it in the beginning.

Then when they finally started getting the product in the stores last fall, I decided the time was here and best to "go long".

But, it looks like the technology is still in the bleeding edge stage, and SURE doesn't have the capital to leap the chasm and take it into profitability.

I still think sometime in the future the technology will be widely used but whether or not SURE will be participating is questionable.

It may take many more years for the general public to understand the difference between ionizing radiation and nuclear bombs. The mis-information and totally irrational fears about anything having to do with nuclear science is most unfortunate.

I always got a chuckle when folks would talk about "chemical changes" due to radition but don't think twice about the chemical changes caused by cooking. Here's an experiment, fire up the barbecue, get it good and hot, and put your dick on it for 20 minutes. You'll have a good appreciation of the chemisty of cooking meat.

Oh well, I may jump back in, I got out at 2.70

Why didn't Kendricks tell me about STEM?

Does anybody know anything about AFFX?

MRBA is starting to trend up after crashing down to significant lows, and has just recently announced that it has returned to profitability. It also has a nice balance sheet, and is selling for little more than book value.

I just bought into a small position, which I will add to on dips if it continues to trend up. It has been moving off its lows on nice volume, which I find encouraging.

As far as STEM is concerned, I don't usually follows stocks under a dollar. AFFX still looks expensive to me, and could just as easily fall again as rise, IMHO. Time will tell...

I was thinking about the poker analogy this morning, and think it is a good one.

Daytraders are the guys who have to be in any hand they think they have any chance to win, as they can't stand watching any possible opportunity get past them.

Good players are the ones who wait for all necessary factors to come into alignment, and won't risk their bankroll needlessly.

Guys who buy stocks that are too high hoping for a runup to continue are like chasers, who will pay anything to stay in a big pot, regardless fo the odds.

Covered call writers are the house, who are happy to consistently rake the winners' pot.

Option buyers are slot players, hoping against the odds for huge returns.

Did I leave anything out?

I have used the "house/we are the casino" analogy for years when introducing covered call writing to new customers.

Options buyers are the "gamblers" looking for the action.

I haven't checked this in years but it use to be that statistically approx. 67% of all call options expire worthless. I would guess in the past three years that percent has increased.

I also reentered my position in CHINA, because I really like the company, think it has huge potential for future growth, and it is not collapsing under the SARS scare.

TOO looks like it is in an excellent position to buy, and has sound fundamentals. I will have to give this one further consideration.

Congratulations to the weekly winner!

Dow 8602 - in early for next week

8704 for me

Damn, T_BONE wins AGAIN!

Ben picks 8430

Just keeeping the thread alive.

DOW 8804 cuz the country is on a high and the dumb 100 point Ben rule has got me boxed in. What do you guys say about 50 points??? Or why not just whoever is the closest??

Unemployment is a trailing indicator anyhow. It's the last of the bad news.

Human genome products just may be the technological hit of the next 20 years. Thanks for the AFFX tip. I'm going to bone up on this science.

My TJ fave is cuming to SD tomorrow morning. I'll be exploring every cavity of the human genome for hours in the comfort of my beach pad. Mucho DNA evidence will be left behind.

la dulce vida

Ldvee

Ldvee-DOW 8804 cuz the country is on a high and the dumb 100 point Ben rule has got me boxed in.

Kendricks 8704 for me

T_Bone Dow 8602 - in early for next week

Ben picks 8430


Because of the constant whining we will change the 100 point rule to the 50 point rule effective with next weeks estimates.

CHINA is having a nice day - I'm glad I got back in that one on Friday. Today's jump in CERG gave me a nice opportunity to get out of that trade with a small profit.

I had a great time in TJ over the weekend, I'll have to write a report when I get some time. It had been a while since I'd been down there.

A few stocks I have been following for some time that I think are now set up great for entry: FSII, DDS, SKS. I took a small position in each of these this morning, which I may add to if they act right.

Kendricks,

Nice fantasy report the other day. I like sluts too!!! I don't understand the older guys that go for the young school girl types - perverts.

Wassup Ben?

Give me an older SLUT anytime.

SURE will drop tremendously tomorrow. I'm staying out. Good bottom fishing. Will it float up tho?

"I don't understand the older guys that go for the young school girl types - perverts."

I was setting in a TJ bar Tuesday evening with my little 19 year old teenager.

She looked at me with those big dark innocent eyes and said "How old do I look?"

I said "Maybe 16 or 17".

She said "I am lucky to look so young".

I said "No, I am lucky".

Seriously thinking about buying some Fluor (FLR).

Any thoughts?

I have quite a bit of cash right now (less buying lunch for Sampson and Milkman yesterday).

Fuckin amigos call me up and invite me to lunch and I wind up paying. Thank goodness it was HomeTown Buffet! The place was packed. Is it a publicly traded stock? I could not find it.

I looked at FLR, and am curious - what is it that makes you think it will go up from here? I am not saying it won't go up, I just don't see anything in the charts or financials to think that it couldn't move up or down from here. What is your thinking?

I think it is fair value. I like the decent PE and I like the dividend. Fluor had to take some one time write downs last quarter or their earnings would have been about 40 mil higher.

I think they are going to get allot of work in the Middle East and not only in Iraq.

Many refineries around the world are going to have to retrofit for environmental reasons.

Highway building is going to be required in this country because of traffic problems and there is strong lobbying to raise the federal gasoline tax. I think that the price of oil will continue to go down and as most people in this country don't realize that over half the cost of gasoline is taxes they will not protest much say another nickel in gas tax as they will be out of pocket less money with price of oil down.

I took a profit on MRBA today, and rolled the cash over into GADZ. Go GADZ.

Kendricks,

I was going to mention to you a stock on Tuesday that has no redeeming value, but a good story. Very active the last few days. "CIO" is the stock.

I had a client that bought I think 5,000 shares at .50 a few years ago. Her idea to buy based on someone on the same jury she was on.

I talked her into selling 2500 shares at $14.00 and then it went up to around $20 where she got so pissed at me she switched her account to T.D.Waterhouse. Fuck her! I wish I had not talked her into selling at $14. It looks like it might have some momentum.

I sometimes feel like calling her up just to tell her how stupid she and most investors are about being afraid to take a profit.

I wouldn't buy this stock with your money, but for a guy looking for the action (Gambler) you might look at this one. I have no personal interest in this stock.

LOL, that's a great story. I wonder if she rode her other 2500 shares down to nothing?

I took a look at the balance sheet - if my memory is right, it has something like 4.9 million in assets, 4.87 million in liabilities, and 86 million outstanding shares. Pretty funny.

Thatnks for the tip, but I think I'll pass on this one too. I'm not that much of a gambler! I love hearing stories like that, though.

Last time I talked to her I ask her and she ignored my question, so I assume she still owns them.

Ben,

BSH is much cheaper today. Guess I was wrong when I said it probably won't go much lower. Think I'm sticking to GE, MSFT, JNJ, WMT, PEP, PFE and the like.