I just found out that I will have to watch my Steelers at 1am in Bangkok next Monday in the AFC Championship game. I then need to find a place to watch the Super Bowl at 6am on Feb. 4 in Pattaya. I'm pretty sure that Fox is not carried on Sattelite in my room. I would like to find a place in South Pattaya so I can go to the blow job bars at half time....pending the crazy crackdowns going on in Pattaya right now.

MY PICKS
STEELERS
RAMS
STEELERS OVER
RAMS OVER

Athos,

I was reading a book the other night called *Win More, Lose Less*. It's written by a retired financial analyst and he goes over a lot of fine points about NFL betting from a statisical perspective. For what it's worth he argues that teasing both sides of a game is a bad bet.

I'm not trying to talk you out of your play, just want to let my fellow cappers know of the existence of this pretty good book.

Bookie

I lost last week going both ways so now I am not sure. My feeling is betting on soccer is so much easier than nfl. Best is to not bet at all. 3 team parlay, odds are 1 out of 8, yet they pay you only 6 to 1.

Caliente odds:
Steelers -8.0 35.5
Rams -11.5 51.0

I like the steelers straight and teasing the steelers and the eagles.

For the medal of the week:
1. Steelers Over
2. Rams Under
3. Steelers -8.0
4. Eagles +11.5

steelers over is a sure bet, i also think the steeler bet is a lock, if i were you guys morgage the house, sell the car, sell ya stocks, cash in ya bonds and bet it on the steelers to run over the pats, steelers are my shooooeee in, pick of the month, lock of the year

If you love the Steelers you might think about taking them in the first half. The Steelers have a history of celebrating a bit too early and going into protect mode on offense thus making them vulnerable to back door covers. If they're going to blow the pats doors off then presumably they'll control the -4.5 half line.

OK, the Commissioner is back in town! Article 7, Paragraph 3, clause (f) clearly states that if any game ends in a push, all bets are off on all games. So nobody won any medals last weekend.

And if you believe that, you'll believe that no TJ chicas or mongers ever go bareback.

Thanks to Jocannon for filling in for me. And his ruling was exactly the way I would have decided to do it.

So to make it official, all rise for the playing of Bullitt's national anthem:

Bullitt - Gold medal (awesome performance considering no one else could even get to .500, and if there hadn't been a blizzard in New England, he would have likely gone a perfect 8-0).

Farsider - Silver medal to go with his other two medals. Mr Consistency and a great competitor!

Athos - Bronze medal - he wins the tie-breaker because his best bet won and Conejo's did not.

Ootie - Monger medal - because I told all of you guys that I suck at the pros, so if you had bet against all of my picks you'd be rich by now! But hell, I was only one game away from a silver medal....I call that progress! Hehe.

Here's my (nose)picks:

(4) Steelers -8.0
(3) Rams/Eagles UNDER 51.0
(2) Eagles +11.5
(1) Steelers/Patriots UNDER 35.5

A Back home after a week of skiing (in that New England blizzard) kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

Well money is being put on fav, steelers are -9.0 36.5, rams -12.0 50.0. Makes no sense eagles are better than packers but line is higher.

People just love to bet the Rams, just like they did when Tampa Bay almost beat them outright two years ago as a 14-point underdog.

A Bet on the Rams that day kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

Here's my attempt to continue my silver medal streak:

(4)Steelers/Patriots OVER: Supposed to be a nice weekend weather-wise in the East. (of course I said that last week, and they played in a blizzard in NE)
(3)Eagles/Rams UNDER: If it turns out to be Over, spells bad news for the Eagles.
(2)Eagles +11.5: They've carried me this far, why stop now?
(1)Steelers -8: Don't have much of a feel for this one. Steelers should win, but...

Athos... it seems like the further into the playoffs you go, the higher the spreads get, with all else being equal. I've noticed that before, and I agree, it doesn't make sense.

Ootie... that Tampa Bay game from two years ago is why I think the Eagles have a fighting chance. They're a similar team. Plus, YoungBrig was right earlier, the Rams' offense wasn't in sync against the Pack, despite the final score.

OK Commish, I'll accept your betting advice and pick opposite of you...besides it's just for fun...if these picks hit, I'm gonna be pretty pissed if I haven't stuck with them at Caliente this weekend.

(4) Pats +8.0
(3) Rams/Eagles OVER 51.0
(2) Rams -11.5
(1) Steelers/Patriots OVER 35.5

Thanks for backing my ruling. Kind of like the league does even when the officials make obvious mistakes.

4 Pitt Ov 35.5
3 Rams -11.5
2 Pitt -8
1 Rams Un 51

I am playing only for the medals as no teaser this weekend. Season is over for me unless SB has less than 3 pts spread.
I like the Rams Over being at 49.5, rams -12.0 and steelers -9.0, these are toss up.

Okay:

1. Phila +11.5 vs. St.L
2. Phila/St.L UNDER
3. NE/Pitt OVER
4. NE +8 vs. Pitt

YoungBrig

I'm in:

4)Pitt Over
3)Rams Over
2)Pitt -8
1)Rams -11.5

Summary of picks:

Pitt -8: Fx-4; A-2; Oot-4; Far-1; B-2; C-2.

Pats +8: J-4; Y-1.

Rams -11.5: Fx-3; J-2; B-3; C-1.

Phil +11.5: A-1; Oot-2; Far-2; Y-4.

P/P OVER: Fx-2; A-4; Far-4; J-1; B-4; Y-2; C-4.

P/P UNDER: Oot-1

R/P OVER: Fx-1; J-3; C-3.

R/P UNDER: A-3; Oot-3; Far-3; B-1; Y-3.

Oh, and the over/under on Michele-CC's next hotel session is 13 minutes (down from 14 due to a lot of money coming in on the under).

A Commish with a gold wish kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

You've got too much time on your hands Tagliabue, especially at O-dark30 in the morning. Rather than compiling stats, wouldn't you rather be planning your next TJ trip?

Hell, it's only 5 1/2 hrs. from the Wrong Coast.

Meet you at Pussycats at 7pm, then on to Pulgas at 9:30 to hook-up with the Milkdud crew. After we both strike out there, we meander down to the zona for a sure thing or three. Breakfast and football at Caliente in the morning. Bloody marys will help you analyze everybody else's losers and figure out that I've recaptured gold.

I'll even pick you up at the airport on my way south.

"You've got too much time on your hands Tagliabue"

A la contare, Jocannon! I only had five spare minutes this morning to compile that list. And two spare minutes to type this note. But alas, not 5 1/2 hours to fly to TJ. Maybe in a few months though when I hope to meet up with you and some other mong.....oops, hombres.

A Fellow hombre kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

I keep feeling better and better about the St.L/Phila match-up...Warner's ribs are hurting, and last week it was his throat...If the Rams O was off last week, how will it fare this week against an Eagles D that really likes to fly around and hit and get aggressive?...

Plus McNabb is loose and confident and his teaammates are playing for him...

At the very least, I sense that a tight game is in the works for tomorrow...

YoungBrig

Ootie
I finally feel back on track and am ready to give Michelle a go. I'd like to go with the Over on that one.

Sure Athos, we're on to you...booking a double session just so you can collect on the wager.

Think we'll have to confirm with her how long it took her to actually get you off.

I think the over/under should be set at 13.5 as you never know which room hombre gets, could be a room all the way back of the hall.
JC, I expect to go over as it has taken over one year of scouting to get ready.

Hank Goldberg (ESPN analyst who's 67-40 this year, but only 1-2-1 last week) picked all the same results as I did (both UNDER's and Eagles and Steelers to cover). So either he's ready for a slump or there may be hope for my woeful pro football handicapping career.

Rumor has it that a certain big Michele UNDER bettor is looking to offer her some bucks to purposely finish off Athos in less than 13.5 minutes. So I may have to go with the tease bet instead (which is less than eleven minutes unless Michele is Athos' second chica of the night).

A Rambling with TJ gambling kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

At halftime, it looks like Philly will cover and total points will be OVER. If so, Jocannon will win gold, YoungBrig silver, and Conejo bronze (and I will claim last place again - YES!).

A Told you to bet against me and make a ton of money kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

Final standings:

Jocannon..3-1....8 pts (another gold; nice going)
Youngbrig.3-1....7 pts (silver; good performance)
Conejo.....2-2....7 pts (bronze; second medal)
Farsider...2-2....6 pts (nosed for a fourth medal)
Athos......2-2....5 pts
Bullitt......2-2....4 pts
Felix........2-2....3 pts
Ootie.......1-3....2 pts (as predicted)

So who made a ton of money betting against my picks? I TOLD YOU!!!!!!!!!!!

There are many betting strategies that you can follow. Sometimes they win, and sometimes they lose. But after years of experience, I've come to realize that there is no strategy more successful than betting against a bad or unlucky player. Kudos to Jocannon for realizing that concept and going with it. I've often been successful doing the same at the roulette table: looking for the player who is betting a lot of money that a streak will end, and going against him.

A Reverse prognosticator of pro football kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

CURRENT LINE FOR THE SUPERBOWL IS ST LOUIS -15.5, AND 54 IS THE OVER UNDER, DAMN I THINK THE LINE IS A BIT TOO HIGH, I WOULD BET ON THE PATRIOTS WITH THOSE HIGH LINES

Thanks guys, bragging rights for another week. So I'll take full advantage of it and boast that I backed my plays at Caliente Pueblo Amigo this morning while enjoying breakfast with Methusaleh aka Ben.

I even went so far as to correcting my one erroneous selection of the Rams -11 and went with both dogs and the overs. Bet a whopping 200 pesos ($21.50) on the 4 team parlay which pays about $232. I left early third quarter with the score Eagles 17-16.

It will be nice on my next trip to have a TLN session and hotel expenses already covered.

I planned to bet at least $50 but somehow I lost a C-note from my money clip last night. If anyone found it somewhere between VdeZ, Pulgas, and Hong Kong, please post a message where and when I can meet you to arrange it's safe return. I am offering a $25 reward. I'm sure the board will be inundated with those that have knowledge of this incident.

Thanks Ootie for the wagering strategy albeit slightly modified. I'll save enough of the winnings to buy you a few bebidas. Just make sure you bring along my two gold medals.

Athos: You've been in training for a year for a session with Michelle. I'd suggest a double or triple dose of Vimex for staying power. Guess with her rep, I'm kinda glad she lied to me last year and told me her name was Paola. That's when I made a wrong assumption and thought she was an 18 yr. old virgin. Since the vibe wasn't there, I passed but have been regretting it every time I see her. Easy to realize now how damaging to my ego a 12 minute session would have been.

PS: I expect a boring lopsided Super Bowl especially if Bledsoe starts. Right now, I'm inclined to go with the Rams and the under.

Good job with the parlay JC.

That's second time Steelers lose at home heavy fav, last time was 1995 with the Chargers winning 17-13 and 9 pts underdogs. Was shocked to see Steelers abandon running game so early and ask Kordell to win the game against good D.
Rams are so good on O but D is not that good relying on cushion given by O.

McNabb just did not have it in second half.

Early line in LV is Rams -14 O/U 53.5.

With Brady starting and Smith runnning the ball, I'd say Rams win by 10 in low scoring game in the 40's. In week 10, Rams barely beat Pats in Foxboro. Smith fumbled at the 1 yard line to give Rams some life. Warner had a hard time in the first half. Pats are better than Eagles and can win game with right breaks, like today.

Go Chargers, well Marty S. is getting hired by tomorrow. I would have preferred Jim Mora myself but I think the chargers are headed to LA in 2003 so I am starting to detach myself from team.

I hope the Chargers move to LA - that's an extra game on TV each Sunday.

Ootie:

How can we work this for Super Bowl Sunday?...Should we add some of the props in addition to the spread and the points?...

Congrats once again to Jocannon, who apparently saw that St.L/Phila OVER a mile away...I thought a tough Phila D would keep the score this side of 51...

I was happy for Bledsoe; I had kind of forgotten how well that guy can deliver the ball...

YoungBrig

YB
Yeah man why can't Bledsoe start for Chargers, I know the guy can barely run but he can still throw the ball.

T Bone
Are you that low on cash? get the DirecTV NFL package. Hate to tell you this but SD is considered part of LA's market if no pro team in town.

If I go to TJ this week, I'll check some props so another gold can be awarded to JoCannon...maybe.

I will stick to my game plan:
Take the Pats + 14.0
and the Under 53.5.

Bad news for you Athos; not only with Marty S as Charger coach (although Jim Mora would have been worse), but also because I too like the Pats +14 and the UNDER 53.5. I am the kiss of death (although I did win the gold in the college "super bowl" game).

The tie-breaker for the gold medal quest will be "closest to the final score" (not the weighted best bet points like in previous weeks). My final score: Rams win 31-20. (i.e. if Pats win 27-24, although my total points would be correct, I would be 14 points off). If this is ok with you guys, start submitting your picks.

I think it would also be fun to have a separate contest of props picks: most correct prop picks win. Does someone want to post at least ten props (i.e. over/under total passes 50; over/under ground yardage 200; etc) and summarize that contest for us?

A Last shot for the gold kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

YB: The Stl/Phil ov-un at Caliente was down to 48.5 yesterday morn, i.e., a ton of under $$$ to move the line down from 51; Phil +11, NE +10 (went to +10.5 right before game- opened at +8) NE/Pit over 37.5 ( a lot of over bettors-opened at 35.5).

My SB (Super Bowl) prognostication: Rams 28 Pats 10.

My SB (Sakebomb) prognostication: over 200 chicas for 2002.

Chargers fans, get ready for late game yelling at the TV as follows, "Fuck Marty, not the prevent defense."

OK I like that final score thing:

Pats +14
Under 53.5
Rams 31 - Pats 22.

Chargers 2002 8-8, D will be much better with D coordinator and Marty ball will bring even more boredom to chargerville. Can you believe 4 Chargers are on the pro bowl roster on D, what a joke.

Just called Caliente, opening line was indeed -16 but went down to -14.5, over/under is at 52.5. Ootie decides the exact spreads.
This is the third largest opening spread in SB history.
The rams are 10-7-1 vs spreads and 10-8 going over.
The Pats are 8-3 vs the spreads as underdogs, and 10-8 going over.
In week 10, Pats covered 7.5 by losing 24-17 in Foxboro, over/under was 48 that day.

Athos:

I may be wrong but I think (at least when the Chargers are at home) the LA market gets an extra game than San Diego does. I don't know why FOX and CBS can't play an early and afternoon game every week regardless, they pay enough for the NFL.

I usually hit a local sports bar anyway as I like to watch multiple games at once.

T Bone
The way it works is they think of SD as LA market but not the other way around.
Thank goodness for TJ, LA sucks.

ok
simple bet for a simple mind
I want to bet 20 bucks on the pats.
i know how to place bets with baseball but when it comes to football i have no idea.
i will be down in tj tonight and will hit caleinte then Pulgies.
What do i say to the window clerk for my bet and what is the safest bet.
taking the under ?? like i know what that means.
or betting the total points if that possible ?

let me know , like i said i want to bet 20 on the pats but Do not want to bet the total points just bet that the pats win

thanks for any info you can give
take care
A still thinking about New England type of guy
milky

Milkdud: You're alive? Was getting ready to ask the Federales to start looking for graves in the Sonoran desert (as if they'd care if another body was buried out there).

If you want to look and act like you know what you're doing, look for the black boxes on the wall that contain sheets of paper. One of those boxes will be labeled "NFL".

The game will be on there with each team given a 3 digit number, something like Rams #145; Patriots #146. The opening line of the game will also be shown on the sheet, probably -16. plus the over/under totals.

Just go up to the one of the clerks, give him the number assigned to the Pats, and tell him $22 straight bet. Bet $22 to win $20. You can bet $20 if you want, you'll win about $18 less 1.5% tax.

Or if you don't want to look like you know what you're doing, simply walk up, ask what the current line is on the Super Bowl, and tell him you want to bet $20 (or $22) on the Pats + the points (14.5 or whatever the line is by tonite).

I haven't been to Tijuana to watch the superbowl in a few years. But there is a proposition they usually had that I liked. There is usually at least one NBA game before the superbowl. At that time Jordan was still with the Bulls and the bet was who would score more points - Jordan or one of the teams (I forget which team). I think Jordan covered.

One other comment now that I think of it. I was out at Caliente and I put $10 on Al Gore to win the election. I never bothered to find out if it was a winner. He won the popular election but lost the electoral college. Does anyone know how they ruled that ticket at Caliente in TJ.

My guess is that the answer to your question is the same answer to this one:

Who currently sits behind the big desk in the Oval Office and also sleeps in the White House?

Current line in TJ is:
Rams -14.0
Over/Under 53.0

Half time
Rams -8.0
Over/Under 27.0

Props available:

Warner's Passing yards Over/Under 282.5

Marshall Faulk total yards (rushing/receiving) O/U 152.5

Antwoin Smith O/U 63.5 rushing yards

Rams Tight End Conwell O/U 27.5 receiving yards

Patriots tight end Jermaine Wiggins and fullback Marc Edwards combined O/U 27 ½ receiving yards.

Patriots combined-receiving-yards for Brown and David Patten O/U 144.5

Rams combined receiving yards for Bruce and Holt: O/U 148.5 yards.

Maybe Ootie can decide the competition this week, maybe game and first half, or add some props too.

I only have time this week to be the commissioner of the Super Bowl pool that I mentioned above. To repeat:

I'm taking the Pats -14 and UNDER 53.5 (since the current TJ numbers are about the same as originally posted by Athos, we'll stick with the -14 and 53.5). My final score (tie-breaker): Rams win 31-20.

Athos' props look like fun. Any other props?

A We need a props commissioner kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

I am taking the Patriots in a blowout. No team has taken them serious all season. Pats 31 Rams 14

Rams 47 Pats 10

nice prediction bullitt.

Mine is Rams 52 - 14 in a snoozer.

is anyone going to give the pat any credit for beating the steelers at home, i am sure they did something right to get to the superbowl and i don;t think (hope and pray that the pats won;t get blown out in the first half), i will give credit to the pats and will bet accordingly by who the q.b. will be on game day, perhaps the pats will go for the two q.b. set up

I'm going to go with Rams -14 and the OVER. Final score prediction 37-20.

I'm thinking of watching the game in TJ. Is anyone else going to be down there?

No Conejo,

They close the entire city of TJ for Superbowl. You'll be all by yourself.