Raiders, Titans. Bet the farm!

they both lost...good thing your PI honeyko's didn't bet their farm in the provinces.

I love being a genius!

Re: the utter uselessness of sports wagering, lesson no. 128:

Item: the Bears, playing about as pitifully as humanly possible against the Raiders during the first half of last Sunday's game, get booed off of the field by the Bear faithful and sullenly retreat to the locker room, down 18-3...

If you had the Raiders -4 at that point, exactly how did you feel?...

But Lo and Behold, some 1 1/2 hours later the Bears are kicking a last-second, game winning field-goal and Kordell Stewart suddenly stands to Tommy Maddox as Bob Griese once did Earl Morrell...

If you had the Bears +4, you called that, right?...

Right...Thought so...

YoungBrig

"This weeks picks:
Raiders/Bears OVER 42½ WINNER
Steelers/Browns UNDER 42 LOSER
Saints/Panthers OVER 37½ LOSER
Vikings -4 WINNER

Upset of the week:
SeaHawks(moneyline+120) will beat the Packers in Green Bay." LOSER


Record for the season:
Straight Bets 11-5 +$550
Moneyline 1-4 -$205

Re: The utter uselessness of sports wagering, lesson #129:

Item: With 5 minutes to play, Ronde Barber returns an intercepted Peyton Manning pass 29 yards for a TD, putting the defending World Champions ahead by 21 points on their home field...

If you had the Bucs and were laying the 5 points, how did you feel at that point?...

Lo and Behold-- and with a heavenly version of Don Meredith's "Turn out the lights, the party's over" ringing in our ears-- a long kickoff return, a recovered onside kick, some fancy passing by Manning, and a key OT penalty brings the Colts an unbelievable victory...

If you had the Colts +5, you called that, right?...

Thought so...

YoungBrig

This weeks picks:
Buccaneers -3
Chiefs +1½
Ravens -5½ (I have a hard-on for this game)

Upset of the week:
Panthers(moneyline +200) will beat the Colts in Indy.(Manning needs to come back down to earth sometime)

Contrary to what Youngbrig says, SPORTS BETTING RULES!!!

"This weeks picks:
Buccaneers -3 WINNER
Chiefs +1½ WINNER (what an awesome game)
Ravens -5½ WINNER

Upset of the week:
Panthers(moneyline +200) will beat the Colts in Indy." WINNER

Record for the season:
Straight Bets 14-5 +$850
Moneyline 2-4 -$5

Snapper:

Nice job, and congratulations on a good week...

...But I've found in betting that-- eventually-- what comes around, goes around...You wound-up on the right side of the number this week in that KC-GB matchup, but the end result was pure happenstance...Lady Luck has a way of not allowing that to happen too many times in a row...

In any event, I am not here to play partypooper-- your straight-bet record this year speaks for itself...

YoungBrig

I feel vary confident about this week's picks. If I end up a losing money this week it's because Youngbrig jinxed me.

This weeks picks:
Ravens -2
Cincinnati has allowed over 120 rushing yards average per game. Jamal Lewis will have a big game.

Vikings -3½
Culpepper returns and Plummer's out

Chiefs -3½(Monday Night Game)
I have no idea why this line isn't Chiefs -7½. Chiefs aren't getting enough credit from the odds makers, and the Raiders are getting too much.



Upset of the week:
There are no moneyline bets with payoffs that make it worth betting, unless you think the Bears(+490) can beat the Seahawks(not a chance in hell).

Snapper
Don't bet the house, I am worried for your Ravens pick. Bengals can win. Chad Johnson is a premier wr these days.

Towards the end of last year I realized how important it is to look into each team's strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the football instead of just looking at how many points were forced and allowed.

The Bengals and Ravens are polar opposites of each other. Both teams have vary unbalanced offenses, Bengals have no rushing game, and the Ravens have no passing game. Only 4 teams in the NFL have a lower rushing average than the Bengals. Ravens rank at the bottom of the NFL for passing yardage.

I'm placing this bet on the fact that I think the Raven's defense will do better against the Bengal's passing game than the Bengal's defense will do against the Raven's rushing game. Also, rushing teams have a slight advantage because they control the clock.


I'm not predicting a blowout by any means on this game, but this is what I am predicting...

Bengals- 82 yards rushing, and 207 yards passing. Total 289 yards
Ravens- 190 yards rushing, and 122 yards passing. Total 312 yards

Final score:
Bengals 16
Ravens 21

I haven't really been following this thread, but man Snapper, your straight-bet record is impressive.

I wouldn't touch that Ravens-Bengals matchup, either. Ravens are up and down, while the Bengals are improving and should make some noise later in the season.

I like Tennessee over Carolina this week. Panthers are the real deal, but they're due for an off-week and McNair is on fire.

My upset pick: Detroit over Dallas.

Snapper:

Most people here who claim they can beat the spread last a few weeks, and then disappear as quickly as their money.

Tennessee can't stop the run (or tackle) and Carolina has the best running game in football. I wouldn't touch Tennessee with YOUR money!

I have lost so much money I don't bet any more, prefering to give it away to working girls.

It's just gambling. Like everything it's fun if done in moderation. It's always more fun if you guess right too.

Titans/Panters- McNair will pass for over 300 yards, but how many yards will the Panthers rush for. Going to be a good game to watch.

"I have lost so much money I don't bet any more, prefering to give it away to working girls."
That just gave me an idea. If I put two more units on the Cheifs I can go to the casino and cash that ticket after the game, then head down to TJ. If the Chiefs lose I guess I'll have to go out hog'n

GO CHIEFS!!!

Athos I am awalys here too

I will be putting a wot of money on the Chargers this week. They can't be that bad ?

I need twip money for Mexicali

0-16 is very doable.
Way to go Marty.

Cowboys can't possibly not blow out lowly Detroit, can they? Tampa vs. the 49'ers is a big mismatch compared to how both teams have played thus far. Both the Packers and Rams are averaging nearly 30 points a game. How can that game not go over 49? The Favre hex in Domes???

Oh, bet Blazers airfare to Asia on all of the above!!!

Well, NY Giants fans are now having a proverbial cow. Anyone remembering the "Miracle at the Meadowlands" debacle of 25 years ago is now having a major flashback.

The good that came out of the poorly named Miracle is that the Giants finally gave up on their really, really atrocious management that ran the team into the ground from 1964-77, and hired George Young to run the team, leading to a run of playoff appearances for the 80's and 90's. Perhaps everyone will get fired again, and some new blood with a brain will be hired.

The Giants absolutely dominated this game...They outgained Philadelphia by over 200 yards...The Giants had 25 first downs to the Eagles 9...

McNabb's line was 9-23 for 64 yards-- 64 fetching yards??!!...Explorer, you could play QB in a Reid offense and throw for 160...

I had the Giants -2.5 and is anyone going to tell me that I was on the wrong side of the number in this game??....

Sports betting absolutely sucks...Or sucks absolutely-- I'm not sure which...

YoungBrig

That Giants-Eagles game might have been the worst-played game in the history of the NFL. On the Philly TV and radio post-game shows, the callers are demanding the heads of McNabb and Andy Reid... and the Eagles WON the game!

The Giants? Only thing in their favor right now is that many of the sports fans in NY are mercifully preoccupied with the World Series.

And now a word from ................... Snapper !!??

BTW, did you ever wonder how those sports betting "touts" work, I mean the one who GUARANTEE THAT TONIGHT'S TIP FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WILL WIN!!! How can they stay in business, given that they are often wrong? Easy:

Everyone who calls those lines is asked for their phone number or address or whatever. The system then randomly assigns a different "tip" to people who call in, perhaps 4 different guaranteed tips are given out. Then, the 1-in-4 people who received the tip that actually panned out are contacted after the game, and they are randomly assigned one of 4 tips. The 1-in-4 winners of THAT game are then contacted the next week, shampoo-rinse-repeat. By some point, the 1-in-16 or 1-in-32 multiple winners are convinced that the system works, and they become the willing suckers who actually start buying worthless tips from the tout.

It takes a little organization and large numbers of players, but this is a good way to separate suckers from their money.

Getting back to Snapper, if he set up say, 32 or 64 IDs here, he could convince us that he can guarantee that his bets will win. Since Snapper wouldn't do that, the next best thing is that, over time, someone here will get hot and post 3 or 4 weeks of posting winning predictions in a row, and everyone will jump on their bandwagon. Simple statistics make it impossible that this *won't happen* over time.

"Getting back to Snapper, if he set up say, 32 or 64 IDs here, he could convince us that he can guarantee that his bets will win."
I have never tried to convince or make a guarantee to anyone that my picks will when. In fact look back to last year when I was posting my picks as a service to others so they knew what NOT to bet. Also, I have referred to sports betting as guessing in the recent past when I said "It's always more fun when you guess right".

"Since Snapper wouldn't do that, the next best thing is that, over time, someone here will get hot and post 3 or 4 weeks of posting winning predictions in a row, and everyone will jump on their bandwagon."
Why does it annoy you so much to see someone get a pat on the back when they're doing good, did you not get enough possitive attention as a child???
I've been making these post sense week one this year and much of last year. I started these posts when I was doing shitty. Ex, you should look back at those post since you get so much enjoyment when others have misfortune.

"Simple statistics make it impossible that this *won't happen* over time."
This has nothing to do with what you're implying, but... Statistics in sports are great to show the history of a team or player and give you something to base your guess on, but they can never predict the future.


BTW, I'm still vary confident that I'll end up a winner this week.

Go Chiefs!!!

Snapper:

I have no way to prove it-- without you accessing another TJ-oriented site that I am a member of-- but I actually had the Bengals +2...I took some heat for that selection and yes, I looked at the potential rushing mismatch that you noted...

My hunch, tho, was that the Ravens couldn't continue to win much longer with Boller throwing for 70 yards a game...Plus, the Bengals had been playing everyone tough and were due...

But that's all it was, man, was a hunch...I have come to find in the game (or war?) of sports betting, one man's hunch is just as good as another's...

Interestingly, Boller had a breakout game, outplaying Kitna statistically and racking-up 300 passing yards...

The NFL is a funny league these days...A veritable No Mans Land for the sports bettor trying to soldier his way thru to a profit...

YoungBrig

If we pull Snapper, Porker resources, we could pull some winners, I can play devil's advocate like I did for Bengals.

Explorer,
Why are you attacking Snapper? He just offers his picks for fun.

Best news of the day, my Chargers are not the worse team in the NFL. Falcons or Lions is my pick.

Farsider:

I really feel at this point that Reid needs turn the ball over to Koy Detmer-- who actually is #2 on the Eagles depth chart despite the fact that everyone is clamoring for A.J. Feeley...

A more effective QB gives the Eagles the win last week in Dallas, and 64 yards passing may produce a win against the snakebit Giants, but 39 times out of 40 you're going to lose with those types of numbers from your QB...

In the NFL of Jake Delhomme, Kelly Holcomb, Marc Bulger, Matt Hasslebeck, Jay Fiedler, Jon Kitna, Tommy Maddox et.al., the move will probably be a winner...

YoungBrig

Athos:

I would give the nod to the Vick-less Falcons...They looked even sillier at home today against the Saints than they did last Monday against the Rams...

Detroit's collapse today came against the 3rd best team in the league right now-- 2nd best if KC loses tomorrow night: the Dallas Cowboys...

Dallas has balance on offense (an NFL rarity) and are playing tufftuff defense...Amazing...

YoungBrig

Yeah! Parcells rules!

-Superman-

Snapper... maybe you need to add a "for entertainment only" disclaimer to your picks.

YB... that might just happen. Reid was saying after the game that he's thinking about benching McNabb next week, and Detmer would be the man. If he's gonna do it, he'd better do it next week. He can use McNabb's supposed sore thumb as a way to counteract the many naysayers. The problem is this... McNabb is signed to a huge long-term contract, is viewed as a franchise player and benching him might be a PR disaster. You kind of have to be a long-term Philly sports fan to understand the impact it would have. But something definitely has to be done, because the Eagles are very lucky to be 3-3 (probably should be 1-5) and McNabb just hasn't been the same quarterback since he got hurt last year.

The worst team right now is definitely the Falcons. I don't even think Vick will be able to bring them back to life when he comes back.

As much as it pains me as an Eagles fan to say this, the Cowboys are by far the best team in that division right now. Parcells has really whipped those 'Boys into shape.

-Raven's won the war of the stats this game with the exception of turnovers and penalty yardage. What won the game for the Bengals was the fact that the Ravens couldn't stop "the big play" and Bengals defense played well where it counts(in the red-zone), holding the Ravens to 2-11 in third-down efficiency.
How the hell did Boller throw for over 300 yards??? He hasn't thrown for 300 yards in the first five games combined.


-McNabb: He getting painful to watch. I hope he gets benched so his hand can heal.
Completion Rate 9-23
Yards per pass 1.8
Net yards passing 47


-When will the Vikings get there first loss???
Upcoming opponents:
Week 8 -NY Giants(in Minnesota)
Week 9 -Packers(in Minnesota)
Week 10-Charges(in San Diego)
Week 11-Raiders(in Oakland)
Week 12-Detroit(in Minnesota)
Week 13-Rams(in St. Louis)
Week 14-Seahawks(in Minnesota)
Week 15-Bears(in Chicago)
Week 16-Chiefs(in Minnesota)
Week 17-Cardinals(in Arizona)
If there isn't a major upset this team could go 15-2 or better. Vikings defense looked strong throughout the game yesterday, but their offense tired in the second half.


-Vick: I heard someone putting on some shtick about how Michael Vick should get the MVP award even though he hasn't played a game this year. He was just pointing out that with how bad the Falcons are without him he's obviously the MVP.

Because Vick had a lower leg break do you think this will now affect his game ?

Exploder you really need help.

I am such a shmuck I was gonna put my family nesting on the chargers this week and backed off

Chief's penalties are kill'n me!!!

If there isn't a major upset this team could go 15-2 or better. Vikings defense looked strong throughout the game yesterday, but their offense tired in the second half.
I meant to say 14-2. I forgot about their bye-week.

Tuiasosopo's line tonight: 16-28, 224 yards, in just one half of football...Does anyone out there think that Gannon would have made this one close?...Against arguably the best team in the league Tuiasosopo drives the Raiders 93 yards in under 2 minutes without a timeout, completing a 4th and 10 along the way...

Tuiasosopo possesses leadership, moxy, and a knack for making plays...Once he warmed-up tonight, he looked like he was running that high-powered Washington attack he had his Senior year under Neuheisal...

Perhaps most importantly, Tuiasosopo is extremely mobile and thus makes the opposing defense think about something other than simply "let's-rush-the-passer-and-collapse-the-pocket"...

The Raiders organization have reached the proverbial Y in the road: Tuiasosopo is the future, and Gannon is the past-- we'll see if Mr. Davis is still coherent enough to recognize it...

YoungBrig

"Does anyone out there think that Gannon would have made this one close?..."


Yes, 1)Gannon would of never wasted as much time as Tuiasosopo did. PISS POOR CLOCK MANAGEMENT.

2)You call that a fake?
BIMBO BLONDES IN my acting class can act better than that.

3)Gannon would of thrown a strike catchable in the end zone for WIDE OPEN Porter.

4)Gannon would have thrown a strike catchable in the end zone for a TD the last play not the three foot line.

Any other questions?


The Raiders are the most self defeatist team in the history of the NFL.

MaximuswhoisapissedoffanddisgruntledRaiderFAn

BTW
Every week I make a $5 ten team parlay.
This week I was 8-2 for the second time.
My worst has been 6-4.
I guess I should be doing straight bets every week.

Anyone want to finance me? j/k

"BTW, Every week I make a $5 ten team parlay.
This week I was 8-2 for the second time.
My worst has been 6-4.
I guess I should be doing straight bets every week."
I stopped doing parlays after a buddy of mine that works in a sports book told me that the casino hold over 40% on parlay bets. Now I just do moneyline bets for my prop bets.

I'm usually not a sore winner, so this is only directed toward Exploder...
SNAPPER WINS AGAIN

This weeks picks:
Ravens -2 LOSER

Vikings -3½ WINNER

Chiefs -3½ WINNER
Expect to see me in the Zona today thanks to the Chiefs


Record for the season:
Straight Bets 16-6 +940
Moneyline 2-4 -$5

"Expect to see me in the Zona today thanks to the Chiefs"

NO!!!!!

Expect to see you in the Zona thanks to Tuiasosopo's two blown touchdown throws.
see again #3 and #4 of my post above.

"Expect to see you in the Zona thanks to Tuiasosopo's two blown touchdown throws.
see again #3 and #4 of my post above."
lol- it's not his fault that his recivers are older than Ben. If they would take their hands off their walkers they would have a better chance at catching the ball.
BTW, that last pass of the game seemed identical to Randy Moss' big play on Sunday, except Daunte's pass was to about the 5 yard line and not the 1. Old-timers need to step aside.

Is this Tim Brown or Jerry Rice's rookie photo???

Maximus, did Gannon do any of those things you mentioned on the game closing drive vs. Cleveland the week before? In the second half against the Bears? What has he done LATELY that would lead you to believe any of that crap you posted? If you don't think there are differences from one year to the next, how do you explain Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner going from the SHIT to DOGSHIT from one year to the next?

Re: Vick, he will continue being a human highlight film once he gets back on the field. Until he gets injured AGAIN for being dumb enough to take hits from guys a whole lot bigger and tougher than he is. A guy like Manning might seem boring by comparison sitting there in the pocket but he avoids injury and plays every game because the dude almost NEVER gets hit. Compare that to the injury history of running QB's like Culpepper, Vick, McNabb and McNair.

Porker,

Unfortunately I cannot give an accurate comment because I missed the Clev game. I imagine he at least did better with clock management and threw more accurate passes even though they lost.
YB asked is there anybody out that thinks Gannon would have made this one close last night.

I answered I do. Which I do. Gannon was playing decent last night before he was popped.
Tuiasospopo fucked up a Must Win for the Raiders and their fans like me.

I love Rich Gannon and think he deserves to win a SuperBowl with his chances just about dead now this year.

OF course I agree that QB's, players go up and
down year to year. Hell they go up and down one week to the next as Gannon who blew out my cinderella Jets to get to the Superbowl,
forgot to show up along with the Raiders in the Superbowl.

Maximus:

Yeah, I guess the blame for the loss goes to Tuiasosopo...That's definitely the national consensus this morning...

Headlines all over the country this morning: "Tuiasosopo an embarassment; Raiders fans crying for Gannon"...

Gannon, with his 10-19 for 58-yard outing, was the Man in this game...Gannon produced two "magnificent" First-half drives that took the Raiders "all" the way down to the Chiefs 26(!) yard line before ending in a) an interception, and b) a botched play on 4th and 1...

Well done, Rich...Impressive...Its amazing, huh Rich, how badly that Tuiasosopo guy sucked last night...

YoungBrig

Snapper, nah, that's Emmitt Smith!

The Raiders are so done. WRs can' get open except for Porter. Gannon looks like an old man, 15 yard pass is like throwing a 50 yard pass. The backup does not look good at all, Chiefs don't have any prevent D yet. They are used to win close games. NFL is fun after all. Next loss, well who knows maybe Lions.

New England is surprising a lot of people too. Whats up with the Dolphins ? I thought they would have an explosive offense since aquiring Ricky Williams.

Any a special thanks to Youngbrig for ruining the mexican chat board with your football posts. Well I guess its better than talking about your damm Mariners and their chances fior next year.

Snap Sampson who is pretty good with betting once told me parlays are a casino/Sportbooks dream and gave advice to always bet money lines or the 11 to win 10 never bet a parlay.

take care
milktuff

Milkman:

I cannot prove it without you being able to access a Tijuana site wherein you have received a "lifetime ban," but I actually had the Patriots +5.5 this past week...

Belicheck is a resourceful coach, and the Patriots are a resilient team with a knack for getting the job done...All 8 of Espn's "Panel of Experts," btw, had the Dolphins in that game...

I am bullish on the Pats...

YoungBrig

I don't feel nearly as confident as last week when I went 2 out of 3, so maybe this week Explorer will be happy and see me go 0-3 for the first time this year... but then again maybe NOT!!!

This weeks picks:
Panthers +2
This could be determined by turnovers. Both teams have a -5 turnover differential.
On paper the Saints win this game by getting 349 yards to the Panthers 332, but I'm going with my hunch that the Panthers will bounce back from last weeks loss to the Titans.

Seahawks -1½
Without a rushing game the Bengals can't win. Seahawks secondary has been peachy since week 3.
Turnovers may also factor in here too. Seahawks have a +10 turnover differential to the Bengals -1.

Rams +2
I am most confident about this pick. Rams are just a better team. Too much hype is being put on the return of Jerome Bettis. If he's not rusty and plays at 100% he could help on the goal-line, but I don't think he's going to factor in that much.
Rams offense forces an average 28.3 points per game, Steelers 18.5. Rams defense allows an average 18 points per game, Steelers 24.3.
Final score: Rams 27, Steelers21(I added a couple points on to the Steelers score just in case Bettis is a factor.)



Upset of the week: (I'll do two this week since I didn't do any last week)
Cowboys(moneyline +255) will beat the Buccaneers at Tampa.
I like the way Parcells is keeping the team grounded after the Detroit blow-out by bitch'n about stupid things like yardage on punt returns and how 7 penalties is way too many.

Giants(moneyline +205) will beat the Vikings in Minnesota.
Giants are hungry for a quality win and the Vikings offense is lacking rhythm. If the Giants can control their turnovers and stop the sporadic big plays by the Viking offense they can come up with this win.
If the vikings offense plays like it did last week and the team pulls off a win they need to kiss the defense's ass for the rest of the week, because the Vike's D is what will have won the game.

(Message edited by snapper on October 22, 2003)

Milky worte: "I am such a shmuck I was gonna put my family nesting on the chargers this week and backed off"

Sorry Milky, but I think the minimum bet is $5.
-------------------------------------------------

More on why I don't bet parlays...

3 Team Parlay pays 5½:1, true odds 8:1
4 Team Parlay pays 11:1, true odds 16:1
5 Team Parlay pays 22:1, true odds 32:1
6 Team Parlay pays 44:1, true odds 64:1
7 Team Parlay pays 79:1, true odds 128:1
8 Team Parlay pays 159:1, true odds 256:1
9 Team Parlay pays 399:1, true odds 512:1
10 Team Parlay pays 799:1, true odds 1024:1

I know that the books need an advantage, but some of these go over 25% and they hold over 40%. Compare this to blackjack witch gives the casinos a 6% advantage and hold around 15%.

Tampa CB Kelly and John Lynch both out this week vs. Dallas. Q. Carter still has a really uneven game, but tha Tampa secondary has been getting ROASTED.