Check this out.
http://www.bangahaha1.com/fasnizzle.htm

Porker:

At Tampa Bay -6.5, the line does seem a little big...I was projecting -3...

Someone, tho, at some point, is going to put Carter and the Cowboys in their place, right?...Why not a pissed-off Buc squad, in Tampa Bay?...

The Jury, necessarily, is still out on Carter...Conversely, a convincing win against the Defending Champs this Sunday would go a long way towards taking Carter off of the scale...

If I were a betting man, I would take the Cowboys and the points, but since I am not I would advise all of you bettors to simply stay away from this game...

YoungBrig

Warner to Chicago next year ?

Any thoughts ?

Not as long as the Bears still have Chris Chandler!!...

That's a joke, guys...Well, sort of...

I am one of the few that think that Chandler can still play...

Actually, as far as depth goes, having Stewart and Chandler 1-2 really is not too bad of a QB situation, IMHO...

Did you hear something, Milky, about Warner wanting to go to Chicago or Chicago wanting Warner?...

YoungBrig

Problem is, the Bears have labelled Rex Grossman as their "QB of the future". Sounds like a crapshoot to me. But I think Warner, if he has anything left at all, is a warm weather/dome kind of QB, and wouldn't care for Chicago.

A likelier destination for Warner next year: Miami. I think they'll throw in the towel on Jay Fielder.

I wouldn't touch the Cowboys/Bucs game either. I agree with everything YB said... 6.5 points seems way too high at first glance, but the Cowboys are bound to have a bad week sometime, kind of like the Panthers did last week. Plus, you don't know which Bucs team is gonna show up.

"Warner to Chicago next year ?

Any thoughts ?"


I thought Gus Frerotte made a good case for himself to land a starting spot. Bears might think he's too old though ...maybe the Raiders would be interested.

YB, I agree, betting on sports is a REALLY bad idea. The oddsmakers are VERY smart and if the line looks too good to be true they are usually setting you up. But the point I was making was that Tampa has been getting smoked by the passing game lately and 2 starting DB's are gone and the guy replacing Kelly has been horrible and Dallas has three quality, fast receivers. Dallas' defense has also been very good, and if I was going to bet on ANYBODY in this game, I'd bet on Dallas and 6 1/2 is a lot of points in the NFL. Of course betting in Mexico, the Cowboys (and Raiders) are usually bad bets on the pointspread because you don't get the Vegas line. I also think that the Cowboys will be just as motivated as the Bucs, trying to prove they are as good as their record against the best team they have played so far (though that isn't saying much!).

Re: The Bears Qb situation, I have no idea why they didn't sign Griese this summer. It has been said that Grossman was a worse first round pick than Cade McNown, but THAT would make him one of the worst forst round picks ever, so he probably can't be THAT bad! Warner better find a team that max protects his concussed ass or he's gonna be keeping his bulldyke looking wife company at home 24x7 soon enough.

Speaking of first round busts, Frerotte was a 7th round pick rookie who won the starting job in Washington when Heath Frickin' Shuler was the prize high first rounder. He was always the fan favorite in that competition over the hated Shuler who got run out of town in record time -- almost as fast as Ryan Leaf!

"The oddsmakers are VERY smart and if the line looks too good to be true they are usually setting you up."

C'mon, I know what you're saying 'bout things looking too good to be true. Like the Panthers getting points against the Saints. That's kinda why I don't feel too confident this week, but...

You know as well as I do that the Books aren't trying to "trick" you. All they want to do is collect even bets on each side so they can sit back and collect the vig with no risk. If you're placing a bet on a team in it's market of course it will get more action than elsewhere. That's why the spread will be less favorable. They want even money on both sides. Even in Vegas spreads changes from book to book depending on how much action is being put on certain games.

One tip if you go to a book and you see a button on the board next to the team you want to bet that says "Limit" expect the line to change soon. These bet limits are usually around $1000 and are set in place when a book is getting too much action on one side.

Coming up with the lines is actually pretty easy, it's just math. On Sunday I'll post what I think the opening lines will be for the next week. On Monday night or Tuesday morning the Vegas line will be out. We'll see how close I am.

(Team A's)PF(per game) + (Team B's)PA(per game) ÷ 2 = Team A's projected score
(Team B's)PF(per game) + (Team A's)PA(per game) ÷ 2 = Team B's projected score
add the two projected scores to come up with your Over/Under.

Snapper, it's not that simple, and you know it. Home/road/turf/grass/injuries/history v/ opponents/favorite/dog all get factored in.

Tennessee should pound J'ville today. But if there was anybody that could ever take advantage of Tennessee's tackling problems in the secondary it's Fred Taylor.

"Home/road/turf/grass/injuries/history v/ opponents/favorite/dog all get factored in."

Home/Road: I think I got that one(based on my observations from the past 8 years or so). 2.15 point advantage to most home teams. Green Bay and Tampa Bay get more like 3.5 points, Oldland gets 3.

turf/grass: I see a bigger difference in grass teams going into a dome. Grass team going into a dome lose about 1.5 points.

Injuries: This is the part I have no concept of how they factor in. We'll see what I guess the line for Bronco's game next week. It will be just a guess.

(Message edited by snapper on October 26, 2003)

Another good week. +$195 for the week.

This weeks picks:
Panthers +2 WINNER
Seahawks -1½ LOSER
Rams +2 WINNER

Upsets of the week:
Cowboys(moneyline +255) LOSER
Giants(moneyline +205)WINNER

Record for the season & money W/L including vig:
Straight Bets 18-7 +$1,030
Moneyline 3-5 +$100
Ahhhh, it's nice to be out of the red on my moneylines again.

Yeah, you are awesome, 3 out of 5, how do you do it?

Explorer, you're being a jackass.

"Yeah, you are awesome, 3 out of 5, how do you do it?"

It's easy. I just guessed right.

I whipped this together rather quickly. My O/U will be almost exactly what the books come out with. The actual lines will very slightly. In past years when I came across a line that varied more than a point or two I'd bet it. Until last year(when I was getting shelled) it worked pretty good for me. Now I've abandoned this all together. 90% of this formula is (aPF+aPA÷2)-(bPF+bPA÷2), but like Porker says there IS a little bit more to it than just that. Last year that little bit caught up with me. If anyone knows how handicappers factor in injuries I'd love to hear it.

(42)Carolina at Houston(+4½)

(43)Jacksonville at Baltimore(-6½)

(36)N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets(-1½)

(40½)New Orleans at Tampa Bay(-6½)

(42)Oakland at Detroit(pick)

(41½)Cincinnati at Arizona(+5)

(43½)Pittsburgh at Seattle(-7½)

(42)Philadelphia at Atlanta(+5)

(43½)St. Louis at San Francisco(+3)

(41)Washington at Dallas(-3)

(30½)New England at Denver(+7½)
Honestly, I can't see any books having a line on this game, but if they do take the under!!!

(Message edited by snapper on October 27, 2003)

"(36)N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets(-1½)"
Oops, should be Jets +1½



What do you guys think will happen in Cincinnati with their RBs. Will they move Dillon down on the depth chart and bump up Rudi Johnson? Before yesterdays game the Bengals only rushed for an average of 74 yards per game. Johnson rushed for over 100 yards yesterday. In the games Dillon played he averaged 3.2 yards per carry, and Johnson is averaging about the same at 3.4. Maybe their blocking was just better yesterday.

Oh yeah, Dillon didn't play yesterday because he got in a car accident on the way to the game.

I'll throw in my 2 cents. I've always had success betting against a bad team that happens to be a favorite, especially when that bad team is on the road. So I would take Arizona with 5 points against Cincinnati. Of course, none of my money will be on that game (or any other game for that matter).

A Football fan kind of guy,

Ootie

I feel good about my picks this week, but I know the week when everything goes wacky in the NFL should be coming up soon. Hopefully that will be next week when the Browns serve the Chiefs their first loss.

This weeks picks:
Colts +3
Payton Manning has already proven himself as one of the NFL's top passers and Miami gives up way too many yards to passing(over 235 yards per game). I expect Manning/Harrison to light up the Dolphins who are coming off a Monday night game on the road.
Rams -2½
Again, the Rams are just a better team. The Niners defense isn't going to be able to keep up with the explosive Rams offense. Also, 49'ers may be without (QB)Garcia due to a high left ankle sprain. Even if he does play I doubt he'll be at 100% and able to pass for 220+ yards like he did in the 49'ers week two 24-27 loss to the Rams (witch was Bulger's first game since the benching of Kurt Warner).
Bengals -3
I was going to side with Ootie on this game and pick Cardinals, but I'm not going to let the deceptive defensive numbers of the Bengals smoke me again. Bengals give up yardage, but they are very tuff in the red-zone. In addition to the superior passing game of the Bengals, the Cards now may have to deal with (RB)Rudi Johnson(who is going to steal Corey Dillon's starting job). Cards are over their heads in this game.


Upset of the week:
Jaguars(moneyline +250) will beat the Ravens in Baltimore.
All the Jaguars have to do is stop Baltimore's one dimensional offense. The Jags have only allowed an average of 91 yards a game rushing.


Warnings:
(36)Patriots/Broncos(-2) I mentioned before that I would take the under in this game, but upon further review I suggest avoiding this game all together. The numbers here are very deceptive. Judging by last week's performance of Danny Kanell (90 yards passing, no TDs) it would look like they have no chance of scoring a passing TD, and rushing will be a problem against the Patriots tuff rush defense. Coach Shanahan admitted after the game last week that Kanell played the entire game with a sprained thumb in his throwing hand. This injury will have healed by the upcoming came and Kanell performance may be more like it was against the Vikings (who have a tuff tuff secondary) where he throw for 104 yards and one TD in the fourth quarter alone. Note that the Patriots defense allows an average of over 239 yards per game to passing.
Ok, I've maid a case for the Broncos and now I'll make one for the Patriots. Patriots have a turnover differential of +8, while Denver has a turnover differential of -5.

(48½)Packers/Vikings(-4½) This is one of the NFL's biggest rivalries and both teams will be hungry to win for their fans. Packers have had trouble keeping up with the fast game on turf this year and add to that their records in domes is horrible. As a Viking fan I would really like to say that they'll easily bounce right back from last week's loss to the Giants, BUT the Vikings offense has shown some flaws in the past two weeks, and their defense showed some flaws last week. The Packers who had a bye last week have had two weeks to study film to see how to exploit these Viking's flaws.



(Message edited by snapper on October 28, 2003)

Youngbrig

I was just speculating on where Kurt Warner will be going next year if he isnt dealt this year.

Snapper those are some good picks.

Exploder may have something else to say about that

take care
Milktuff

Hey, Arizona went from +5 to +3 already? Must be a lot of smart money coming in on Arizona after I announced my opinion - LOL. Damn, I was banking on Arizona only losing by a field goal but now that would result in a push.

I would think that Minnesota fans (and maybe their players too) would begin getting a deja vu feeling after last week's first loss (you know, great start plus shitty finish that has happened before for Minnesota).

A Won't be betting football anymore after a recent 7 out of 8 10-point teaser bet with the only loss coming from the Monday Night game that week kind of guy,

Ootie

Is there anyone who doesn't think that Brian Griese will be the Dolphin quarterback for the rest of the decade? Is there anyone who didn't see this coming?

Explorer
Just shows how much you know about football.
Fiedler is a mf of a qb and Griese is an avg qb.

Ootie
Why do you call the Bengals a bad team, they have won 2 in a row, had the Raiders on the rope so easily could have winning record. Kitna for the first time in his career is shying away from ints, Chad Johnson is as good as any wr in the league. They are not good, but far from being bad. Let's call them avg, they fight and play hard, which cannot be said of teams like Falcons, Lions and Chargers. Cards play also hard but have literally lack of talent.

Snapper
I like your top 3 picks so looks like you're going to lose but I miss only 2 games ats last week so maybe I play better when no money on the line. Toughest game will be Colts who are not as good as their record.

Explorer:

Can't tell if Athos is being sarcastic or not, frankly, but I agree with you on this one: it looked pretty easy for Griese out there last night, whereas Fiedler always looks as if he is playing quarterback in ankle-deep sand...

Wannstedt seems like a decent guy, but the basic problem, realmente, in Miami since his arrival has been his stubborn insistence on starting Jay Fiedler...

Jimmy Johnson had identified, correctly, Damon Huard as the QB to develop but Wannstedt went the other direction in order to put his "stamp" on the team...The Dolphins have been paying a price ever since...

Injuries to Fiedler and the fortuitous acquisition of favorite son Griese (why, again, did Shanahan sour on him so quickly?-- so that Danny Kannell and rag-armed Steve Buerlein can get the bulk of the snaps over there?) provide Wannstedt with a convenient strategy for easing Fiedler out while maintaining his Macho grip on the organization...

YoungBrig

Athos:

In my mind still, the Bengals have not yet proven that they have escaped the bad team label. But what the hell do I know? I suck at this.

A Used to be good at this stuff kind of guy,

Ootie

Just to confirm Niner's (QB)Garcia WILL BE OUT this week.

Also when I placed this bet it was Rams-2½, the line has shifted at the casino witch I placed my bet and is now at Rams-4½. The "limit" button is still on the board indicating that the line will move yet more. I have never seen a line move this much on a football game.

Anoyone know the current line at Caliente?(Just wondering)

Cowboys -4 1/2 everywhere else on the planet. -5 1/2 at 'club 21' ripoff sportsbook on Madero in MTY. Arriba Los Vaqueros! I wonder what kind of money can be made jumping on hometown inflated lines in backwater sportsbooks?

This weeks picks:
Colts +3 WINNER
Rams -2½ LOSER
Bengals -3 LOSER

Upset of the week:
Jaguars(moneyline +250) will beat the Ravens in Baltimore.LOSER


Record for the season & money W/L including vig:
Straight Bets 19-9 +$910
Moneyline 3-6+$0

The Chargers have one of the best offenses I have every seen.

It is very offensive !

Go Pats !! Go Bears !

Milktuffy

How bout those Pats !!

I told the very old man that they would take this game !!

Brady and the Pats in the bowl again ?

you nebba know !

OK Milky, we're on the same page tonight. I always love to see the Broncos lose one at home...priceless to see Shanahan face. Man that young Brady can play. He had too much time I knew he would connect for TD. I'll have bigger smile when Chiefs lose in the playoffs again.

Will the Chiefs lose at all this season? I hear you can get 75-1 odds for them to go undefeated during the regular season. The remainder of their schedule looks easy except for two potentially tough road games against Denver and Minnesota (which don't seem as formidable as before due to both of those teams struggling now).

A Tempted to place a wager kind of guy,

Ootie

Ootie, do you know where I can get the 75:1 action. I don't think they'll make it, but at 75:1 it's worth a bet.

_________________________________________________________________________

I have no confidence in my picks this week after feeling embarrassed that I bet on the Rams and Bengals last week.
Note to self: Don't put money in action on or against the Bengals ever again. They fucked you sin condom three weeks straight.


This week's picks:
Seahawks -3
Vegas odds say there is 2:3 chance that Patrick Ramsey get decapitated in the first half. Colonel Sanders could do a better job coaching the the Redskins. Colonel Sanders could also do a better job in Atlanta than Deion Sanders(but that's a different subject).
Ravens/Rams OVER 43½
Four reason: Jamal Lewis, Torry Holt, Mark Bulger, and Arlen Harris. Too many "playmakers" on one field to go under.
Jets -3
I have a hard-on for this game. The Raiders have FALLEN, AND CAN'T GET UP!!!

Upset of the week:
Cardinals(moneyline +290) will beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
There is only one player on the Steelers that impresses me, Hines Ward. Granted, that is one more player than on the Cardinals, but what the heck.

"...Denver and Minnesota (which don't seem as formidable as before due to both of those teams struggling now)."

Hey now, I don't think Minnesota is struggling by any means now.

In week 7 against the Broncos, Vikings defense had 5 sacks, 3 interceptions, and 1 defensive TD. Vikings offense how ever lacked rhythm and could only come up with a couple big plays, but enough to beat the Broncos.

In week 8 against the Giants, Viking's offense still lacked rhythm. Viking's defensive line seemed to take the day off against the so-so pass protection of the Giants by only getting one sack. On a positive note for the Vikings, lets not forget that the Viking's special teams had a blocked punt, witch lead to the Giant's fluke when they recovered it and got a first down, then went on to score that drive. A blocked punt is a blocked punt.

In week 9 the Viking's defense and offense both bounced back and played well against the Packers who played their best game in the past two years. Farve was on fire and only gave the Vikings only one chance for an interception, witch they took advantage of. Vikings offense finally got some rhythm and scored on five of their offensive drives.

I may just be in denile so I'll still call the Vikings "The Not Quite Ready for Post-Season Players" unless they can keep play'n like they did on Sunday and win seven out of their next eight games.

Snapper:

Hank Goldberg of ESPN mentioned the 75-1 odds on last Sunday's pre-game show. He might have said it was at Caesars but I can't remember. You're right, those odds are quite tasty (no matter how tough or easy one might think the Vikings are now).

You may want to amend your "note to self" above as follows: Don't bet on the Bengals WHEN OOTIE PICKS AGAINST THEM. - LOL

A Blowing my own horn for the first time in a very long time kind of guy,

Ootie

No way Chiefs are ok team at best, not best team in AFC, behind Colts and Titans but they sure look like 14-2 to me with home field advantage.

Snapper
Cards are awful on the road, 3 wins have come at home. Jets -3 on the road at the Raiders LOL I have a semi hard on too.

I was think'n about take'n the Browns(moneyline +425) to beat the Chiefs, but that's too long of a shot since last week was the wacky-week.

I'm thinking the Browns will beat the Chiefs this week. Browns have been an up-and-down team all season, and maybe they'll be up this week. And when the Chiefs do lose, I'm figuring it will be in a game like this that everyone has penciled in the "win" column for them.

Maybe? Possibly? LOL...

I am figuring that the next time the Chiefs play the Chargers in San Diego, the Chargers will win.

Odds for the Chiefs to go undefeated is now at 5:1

5 to 1? Those are horrible odds. I would say that if you were to multiply out the money line of each Chiefs game for the remainder of the season, you would get much more than 5 to 1. Of course, the undefeated proposition bet is a separate betting pool (I would think) so maybe a lot of money came into the pool to create that horribly low payoff.

A Should have bet when it was 75-1 odds kind of guy,

Ootie

Two weeks ago it was 100:1

How can the Raiders with Rick Mirer and Ron Johnson starting at QB hang with the suddenly explosive Jets? Three points seems like a gimme. Bet the rancho!

Also, what gives with the Vikes laying less than a TD against the shitty Chargers? Bet the SUV!

It looks like Snapper's system won him lots more dollars this week. As for me, I took the Giants and gave away 11 1/2 points, so I must truly be clueless.

The Jets and Chargers are winning? Please don't let me ever bet on football again.

I just lost my SUV

You had a SUV???

Yes, Explorer, you're catching on. How 'bout them Chargers?

Culpepper passed for 370 yards(4TDs) and rushed for 42 more. Moss received for 120 yards and a TD, Williams was the game's leading reciever with 126 yards and 2 TDs, yet they still managed to lose.

I'm still in denial

This week's picks:
Seahawks -3 LOSER
Ravens/Rams OVER 43½ WINNER
Jets -3 PUSH

Upset of the week:
Cardinals(moneyline +290) LOSER


Record for the season & money W/L including vig($100 units)
Straight Bets 20-10 +$900
Moneyline 3-7 -$100