By Ben on Friday, November 07, 2003 - 09:09 am: Edit |
They all work.
The problem now is that it appears we are in a raging bull market and stocks like you describe above are really going to spike up where as in a bear market (past three years through last April) the covered called in or near the money was the best strategy.
Your SGDE is a great example of this appreciation in a bull market. Your only obvious consolation is that most of your moves into other stocks will also make you money as long as you keep making good choices.
By Kendricks on Friday, November 07, 2003 - 10:47 am: Edit |
Interesting thoughts. I had my AMCC shares assigned early this morning, and have some other stocks with November calls written against them that look like they will be assigned in two weeks (USG, NVDA, ZRAN).
Maybe I should consider shifting my trades more toward investing in the upcoming months, and away from the covered call model. On the other hand, my long term trading skills aren't very good yet, which is why I am starting to spend some time learning some more serious fundamental analysis.
I have a theory that when fundamentals, technicals and news are all in alignment on a stock, it should be a high-probability play, and worthy of serious long-term investment. Or maybe I am just frustrated by watching stocks skyrocket after I take a quick 5 to 10 percent profit.
By Ben on Friday, November 07, 2003 - 11:29 am: Edit |
The market is always going to be a little frustrating as you can constantly second guess yourself.
Remember the stock market has averaged around 9%-10% over long periods and to think over long periods you are going to do much better is going to create a lot of frustration.
I have one retirement account that is up over 25% in three weeks with some CYD, CTEL, ICOS and even that little gem PCIS that I basically day traded. I know it is impossible to sustain 25% every three weeks and I know I am going to have big failures in the future so I try to just accept the fact that it is 10-15% genius and 85%-90% luck, but just like playing poker, that10%-15% advantage is what makes the difference between average returns and extraordinary returns.
Man what a ramble.
By Ben on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 06:54 am: Edit |
Stopped out of CTEL at $8.90 a share.
Made a little over $1000 11.66% in 13 days.
It looks as if a couple of large blocks hit the market this morning and HK market not doing well today or maybe that would be today which was yesterday in California.
By Kendricks on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 08:51 am: Edit |
Today is not my greatest day. First I hear that ISIS and Unicornio are closing. Then, I see that ROXI is down to 7.26. (I have 1200 shares, some with Nov 10 options sold against them, and others with Dec 10 options sold against them).
I think ROXI will rise again, though, and am maintaining my position.
By Kendricks on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 08:57 am: Edit |
Great call on CTEL. I got out of it .45 below you, but still made a sweet profit.
By Ben on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 09:20 am: Edit |
Happy for you and me.
CTEL is very thinly traded and if it breaks below $8 on no news, I might go back in.
By Kendricks on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 09:24 am: Edit |
I bought back my Nov ROXI calls for .10 each. Since I have a relatively (for me) large position in this stock, I am considering selling half my shares, and letting the other half run. Decisions, decisions...
By Ben on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 09:45 am: Edit |
OUCH!
Smart to buy them back as they really give you no protection at this point.
Man that is one lousy looking chart.
By Kendricks on Monday, November 10, 2003 - 02:10 pm: Edit |
Yep, it is a tragic situation. I've been burned getting out of covered call trades on a drop, only to have the stock rise again later. I think I will ride this one out.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 07:23 am: Edit |
Ben has gone from stupid to genius again.
CYD down for the second day in a row at $29.20 and has been as low as $28.75.
The bubble final burst!
By Kendricks on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 07:25 am: Edit |
I'm back in GLGC again. This has been a nice trading stock for me. CTEL has fallen to below my exit price, too.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 07:47 am: Edit |
This has been a very wild ride with CYD just traded at $28.70 and CTEL trading as low as $8.25 today.
The Asian markets are getting slammed and these stocks have a lot of sellers.
If CYD drops below $25 I may pull the trigger.
If CTEL drops to around $8, I may start looking.
This sort of kills the theory of buy and hold, at least for small caps.
By Kendricks on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 09:05 am: Edit |
I agree. Although I do wish that I had held onto ENWV and ACTG. Of course, if I followed a buy and hold strategy across the board, my money would have been tied up in other stocks, and I never would have bought ENWV and ACTG in the first place.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 09:33 am: Edit |
CYD now trading at $27.70 and down over 14%.
Really ugly.
By Kendricks on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 09:38 am: Edit |
At least ROXI is coming back. Go ROXI!!!!
By Ben on Tuesday, November 11, 2003 - 12:34 pm: Edit |
Holy Shit!!!
CYD just hit S26.51
Ben is very happy to be out of this one.
By Ben on Wednesday, November 12, 2003 - 09:47 am: Edit |
CYD earnings out. No wonder it went down.
Lower margins and very little earnings growth on 26% increase in sales over the past nine months.
It is still to expensive even in the mid twenties.
CTEL on the other hand may break out to the mid nine dollar range or better, but still risky.
By Kendricks on Wednesday, November 12, 2003 - 10:23 am: Edit |
IMNY looks like it is ready to explode. I have been holding this while it languished, but it looks like a nice move up might be starting.
By Kendricks on Wednesday, November 12, 2003 - 11:34 am: Edit |
Trading GLGC has been working out nicely. I just sold it again for another profit, and will be watching for it to fall below 4.95 again.
By Kendricks on Thursday, November 13, 2003 - 12:59 pm: Edit |
ALOY and USXP are doing nicely. ROXI continues to suck ass, but I still think the odds favor it rising from here.
By Ben on Monday, November 17, 2003 - 08:30 am: Edit |
AOBO.OB
Why didn't someone tell me about this stock???
By Nayarit on Monday, November 17, 2003 - 08:37 am: Edit |
Anyone know about secondary real estate notes?
Ever invest in secondary real estate note? I've got a line on 15% secured notes for a developer in Alpine. What are my risks and what do I look out for.
By Kendricks on Monday, November 17, 2003 - 08:53 am: Edit |
Why didn't someone tell me that all of my stocks were going to tank? Well, maybe not ALL of them, but ROXI is dragging me down, and ASIA and BCGI aren't doing so well. What happened to that raging bull market, anyway?
By Ben on Monday, November 17, 2003 - 09:45 am: Edit |
I know nothing about secondary real estate notes. Are they the same as second trust deeds where you are in second position behind the first trust deed holder?
I would be careful about anyone offering you a secured note paying 15% as you can get real estate loans at your local credit unions and banks for about 5% and why would anybody be willing to pay you 15% if they had good credit?
Milkman wanted to pay me 50% for a loan, but what good does it do to get that kind of interest when you are paid off in old Spiderman shirts.
I would be interested in lending some money at 15% so let me know.
I think the raging bull is getting old and needs some Cialis.
By Kendricks on Monday, November 17, 2003 - 01:42 pm: Edit |
Cramer says that we will sell off for another couple of days, and then the bull run will continue. Of course, Cramer is a scum sucking asshole whose opinion I place no value on, so I am not sure why I am repeating his prediction here.
By Kendricks on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 08:23 am: Edit |
I picked up some CTEL this morning at 8.20. I think it will eventually go higher again, hopefully soon.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 08:44 am: Edit |
Kind of scarey when you start thinking like Kendricks, but "Great Minds Think Alike" as I have said previously.
I put in a limit order this morning for 1000 shares at $8.16 and got a partial fill of 950 shares at that price. The other 50 shares are still open, but I am happy to see the stock Headin North.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 08:59 am: Edit |
Asian markets have been hammered lately and I think maybe the worst is over. Many items which have nothing to do with Hong Kong such as terrorist (Terriorist will think twice before they fuck with China IMHO) and Japan's economy are hurting their overall markets.
By Kendricks on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 10:37 am: Edit |
I got back in FONR at 1.31. I will probably dump it if it bounces.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 11:11 am: Edit |
What do you think about PCIS at this price. Right now at $4.09.
By Ben on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 11:17 am: Edit |
Now down to $4 and I just put in a buy for 1000 shares at $3.90.
By Kendricks on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 11:23 am: Edit |
I do like PCIS at these levels. I just picked up 1000 shares at 3.98.
(Message edited by kendricks on November 18, 2003)
By Ben on Tuesday, November 18, 2003 - 04:21 pm: Edit |
I had to leave the office early, but I did get 200 shares at $3.90. Maybe I can get the rest in the morning.
By Ben on Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 07:20 am: Edit |
Damn,
I look like a fool. (Again)
I bought my 800 shares just now at $3.93 to add to my 200 shares from yesterday which I bought at $3.90.
The only problem is I was charged two commissions because of course it was two trades so my total cost is $3989.90 which works out to a net $3.99 per share.
All that fuckin trouble for nothing.
By Ben on Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 08:16 am: Edit |
Financials on PCIS out today. No surprises and moving foreward they look like their reorganization of their business is going well.
By Kendricks on Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 08:37 am: Edit |
You still beat my entry price of 3.98 on PCIS. ALOY is looking nice, too. I'm still getting killed on ROXI, though. I think I have become an "involuntary investor" on that one, since I can't justify selling at this low price. At least I sold 200 shares when I bought back the Nov calls, so I am only long 1000. Go ROXI.
By Ben on Wednesday, November 19, 2003 - 12:53 pm: Edit |
Go CTEL!!! Hit $8.35 about ten minutes ago.
By Ben on Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 09:48 am: Edit |
Just hit $8.35 again today.
It will be interesting and important to watch this stock closely over the next couple of days.
By Ben on Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 09:50 am: Edit |
Now $8.40
By Kendricks on Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 10:37 am: Edit |
I'm thinking about holding CTEL for the long run. Do you have different ideas? Maybe I am just bitter about selling ARTX, ACTG, SGDE and ENWV too soon.
By Kendricks on Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 10:45 am: Edit |
USG is interesting too. I sold the Nov 15 calls, and it is hovering right around 15. It will be interesting to see if it gets assigned, or if I get to sell more 15 options against the same shares.
By Ben on Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 11:09 am: Edit |
If their financial report comes in well I might keep for a while, but I just really don't know.
I have a few long term keepers in my portfolio but I have learned that most stocks are like TJ sex workers. You can really have fun with them, but don't fall in love with them.
By Kendricks on Thursday, November 20, 2003 - 11:45 am: Edit |
What stocks do you recommend as long term keepers right now?
By Kendricks on Friday, November 21, 2003 - 09:37 am: Edit |
ROXI finally got some good news. I also picked up some CNTY, which owns and operates casinos in the US and abroad, and looks like a great value at this price.
Does anyone read this thread besides Ben and I?
By Ben on Friday, November 21, 2003 - 10:52 am: Edit |
NO
By Ben on Friday, November 21, 2003 - 11:28 am: Edit |
CTEL currently trading at $8.58, but the volume is terrible!
By Don Marco on Friday, November 21, 2003 - 01:57 pm: Edit |
Your not alone Kendrick.
I've been trading SUNW on dips for the last year or so and have been doing OK. Another trading stock I've been using heavily is APPX, which was working out amazingly, until I was on the wrong side of the curve during the last downturn (I kept a moderate position open while I got distracted mongering).
Long term holds (i.e. over 6 months) I have currently are ICOS, PRX, ENDP, AMZN, SUNW (I'm trying to be patient), NT (did I say I like pain?), and CMNT.
-dm
By Ben on Friday, November 21, 2003 - 03:06 pm: Edit |
What is the deal with ICOS? We final get the damn drug approved in the US and the stock drops a $1.82.
By Don Marco on Friday, November 21, 2003 - 04:13 pm: Edit |
I think it is just a dip on news, although there didn't appear to be significent pre-news activity. I think we'll reap the rewards a couple quarters after it gains momentum in the states.