Eagles vs. Pats in 2005.

DM alternate picks

Atlanta, Colts

If Pats have homefield..Pats go...If Steelers have home field..they go...no way in hell either team comes away with a road win in the AFC CHampionship game...not the way these two teams are playing at home. Indy will play well until they have to play on the road in brutal weather in either Pitt or New England.

In the East, it's going to be Atlanta. Philly is going to choke again...at home.

does that = no bet?

Any naysayers want to step up to the plate?

I bet right now that the Pats do not win the 2005 Super Bowl.

Atlanta?

They barely beat weak ass New orleans.

well gee your a brave soul

How bout you put your money on a team and not 25 of them..

Nope not yet.

I just hate NE so much I will bet against them no matter what just as I did and won on the Super bowl last year.

??




Let me know when your ready to step up to the proverbial table.

Until then I'll let you guys keep talking smack as that's all it is ;)

Lucky Week 13:

Vikes -7 over Da Bears --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Browns +14 (-140) over Pats --- 1.4 units to win 1 unit

Tenn +14 (-140) over Indy --- 1.4 units to win 1 unit

49ers +11 over Rams --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Pack +7 (-130) over Eagles --- 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Giants +3 (-115) over Skins --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit

4 team parlay --- Tenn +14, 49ers +11, Pack +7, Giants +3 --- 1 unit to win 9.8 units

Prior Futures Bet From Week 11 --- Pitt to win super bowl (+450) --- 4 units to win 18 units


Week 12 results:

Skins +11 over Pitt --- WIN 2 UNIT

Vikes -5.5 over Jax --- WON 1 UNIT

KC +3 over SD --- LOST 2 UNITS

Balt +7.5 over Pats --- LOST 1.1 UNITS

2cd half bets:

Skins +3 over Pitt --- WON 1 UNIT

Vikes -3 over Jax --- WON 1.15 UNIT

Week 12 --- WON 2.05 UNITS

NFL Season to Date --- LOST 11.05 UNITS

Indy -10 1/2
Buffalo -3 1/2
San Diego -3
Phila -6
Jackson +3

Parlay
Indy -12 1/2
Atlanta +1 1/2
Jackson Even over Pitt

2cd Half :

Vikes -4.5 (-115) over Da Bears --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Jets -4 over Texans --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Oh .......... you bet on the Giants.

Chris Chandler is playing QB for the Rams???? I thought he retired during the Clinton Administration!

2cd half

Giants pk -(105) over skins --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

I don't understand that last bet, are you betting that the Giants will outscore the Redskins in the 2nd half?

2cd half:

Pack -3 (-120) over Eagles --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

lol

gota love the giants still playing Manning-- easy money.

I don't understand why they are putting their future franchise QB out there with such a crappy Offensive Line. They may just as well sacrifice Warner, lose a bunch more games, and then draft some linemen.

Their skill position players are actually SuperBowl quality, but getting old. If they just had a line, they could do some damage.

that's what I would do also expl... but hey whadda we know.

I suspect that FooledAgain lost so much last week that he can't pay his Internet bill.



The good news is that since betting on the spread is a random walk, he should make it up shortly. Over the long term, he should only lose whatever vigorish he is paying his bettingh outlet.

Steelers have caught a huge break for this weekend.

The Jets had a realistic shot of upseting Pittsburgh this Sunday with Chad Pennington back in good shape.

However top notch DE John Abraham is out and that is a huge loss for a Jet's D that has been playing well.

Very frustrating for a Jets fan like myself.

Wait for Fooledagain picks and pick opposite for week 14. Too stubborn.

Yeah I picked almost opposite of Fooledagain on my straight bets and only lost one game again.

He'll catch back up with the playoffs.

Am now homeless, hungry and cold, will be taking donations if you want my picks for next week, please help !!!!

Hey Foold, Do what I do when I'm in a slump. Write down all you picks and just before you place the bet. Go opposite of all the ones you wrote down no matter how stupid the bet.

Hey FA! I know how you can increase your NFL wins! Just stop posting your bets prospectively, and then you can tell us about your wins after the fact. No one has ever lost a bet here when they post after the fact.

WEEK 14:

Vikes -6 (-120) over Seahawks --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Bucs +6 (-130) over SD --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Cincy +11.5 over Pats --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Houston +11 over Colts --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Skins +10 (-130) over Philly --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

3 Team parlay --- Cincy +11, Houston +11, Skins +10 (-130) --- 1 unit to win 5.45 units

1st Half

Cincy +7 over Pats --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Houston +6.5 (+100) over Colts --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Skins +6 over Philly --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Bucs +3 over SD ---1.1 units to win 1 unit

3 Team parlay - Cincy +7, Houston +6.5 (+100), Skins +6 --- 1 unit to win 6.3 units

WEEK 13 Results:

49ers +11 over Rams --- WON 1 UNIT

Vikes -7 over Da Bears --- LOST 1.1 UNITS
Browns +14 over Pats --- LOST 1.4 UNITS
Tenn +14 over Indy --- LOST 1.4 UNITS
Pack +7 over Philly --- LOST 1.1 UNITS
Giants +3 over Skins --- LOST 1.15
4 Team parlay --- LOST 1 UNIT

2cd Half:

Jets over Texans --- WON 1 UNIT

Vikes -4.5 over Da Bears --- LOST 1.1 UNIT
Giants pk over Skins --- LOST 1.1 UNITS
Pack -3 over Philly --- LOST 1.1 UNITS

Week 13 --- LOST 8.45 UNITS
Previous to Date --- LOST 11.05 UNITS

2004 NFL Season to Date --- LOST 19.5 UNITS

Previous to 2004 NFL Season --- WON 147.15 UNITS

Total of all Picks on the Site --- WON 127.65 UNITS

FA:

Given that betting on the spread is a random walk, if in the past you did well, there is no indication that you will do well in the future. Its as if you flipped a coin and picked a winner 10 times, your history doesn't indicate whether you can call "heads" or "tails" correctly the 11th time, unless the game is rigged.

Over the long term, your betting activities should result in your losing whatever percent of your bets are consumed by the vigorish. I would bet you that this would be the case.

Doubling up when you're running bad is a baaaaaad idea.

2CD HALF:

Cincy +3 (-120) over Pats --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Vikes -3 (-115) over Seahawks --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Actually doubling up when your running bad is a good idea if your using solid hannicapping principles, it will always come back to you, always. That`s the same reason i`d never bet against my picks no matter how bad it gets.

The 4 teams i had 2 units each on, don`t be surprised if those teams finish the final 4 weeks with a combined losing record against the spread. This would be very common, they`ve now become overvalued.

As i stated 3 weeks ago after Blazers proclaimed, "don`t bet against Pitt" that it would be very common for hot teams like Pitt to cool off and don`t be surprised if they finish the final 6 games 3-3 ATS (against the spread), well since that statement they`re 1-2 ATS. These other hot teams will come down to earth also.

Doubling up is a terrible strategy IF there is a bet limit and if you have a limited cash supply.

I ran into what seemed like severe weirdness tonight at Caliente in Monterrey. I went to bet the over in the Chiefs/Titans game. I'm pretty sure I saw yesterday online that the # was 52 after opening at 51.5. Caliente's board had the game at PICK and the o/u at 52.5, which I assumed was this morning's opening line.

Of course, when I got to the WINDOW, the fucker told me that the o/u was FIFTY-FOUR? I was so pissed at that that I figured, ok, I'll just bet the Chiefs and won't bet as much as I'd planned (still have the 5 20's I took out of the bank in U.S. cash). The guy then told me that KC was LAYING THREE POINTS!

I guess I shouldn't be surprised if an o/u moved 1.5 points in one day, but going from PICK 'EM to a 3-point spread?

I quit watching at the end of the 1st quarter with Tennessee up 7-0 thinking 'gee, I was smart not to bet'. I guess the KC O turned it up a notch after that.

BTW, the trend in tonight's game was the over in a meaningless meeting between two teams with bad defenses, combined with the over on MNF.

Steve Mcnair is a huge part of the Titans and when it was announced that he would not play that is when the spread changed.

I had the chiefs +7 on a teaser that I had put in yesterday with Phily -1.5

I had to sweat out the Philly game then do the same tonight. With under two minutes left in the game it was still tied and fortunately Titans got a field goal instead of a touchdown.

The jets D did pretty well without John Abraham except for the trick TD pass.

Unfortunately The wrong Chad Pennington showed up. The same one who choked vs the Raiders in the Playoffs two years ago after destroying Green Bay in Green Bay to make the playoffs then blowing out the Colts, Chad choked vs the Raiders just as he did yesterday throwing three Interceptions.

"I had the chiefs +7 on a teaser that I had put in yesterday with Phily -1.5 "


Once again, our posters have a 100% win rate here on bets disclosed after the game.

Its those bets disclosed before the games that demonstrate that betting on the spread is a random walk.

"Once again, our posters have a 100% win rate here on bets disclosed after the game. "

Not true and why do you care so much?

On 11/7/04 I lost a $130 on a teaser bet because the weak ass Giants got beat straight up by the chicago bears.


I lost $320 on Yankees vs Red Sox in Game 7

and I lost all four Redsox - Cards games.

There now your 100% win rate qoute is no longer valid

I have now disclosed six losses after the fact on this board.

You now need to come up with a new saying.

And by the way if you look in previous threads under baseball and basketball I am sure I mentioned I lost after the fact

I don't have time right now to find the posts myself.

I'll bet the Giants score at least 7 points today!

WEEK 15

Vikes -3 (+100) over Lions --- 1 unit to win 1 unit

Cincy +3 (-120) over Bills --- 2.4 units to win 2 units

1st half
Cincy +.5 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit

2cd half
Cincy -3 (-105) over Bills --- 2.1 units to win 2 units

"Actually doubling up when your running bad is a good idea if your using solid hannicapping principles, it will always come back to you, always."

Really?

Ravens +7.5 over Colts --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Miami +11 (-120) over Pats --- 1.1 to win 1 unit

Fucking Pats suck

First they catch a huge break finding out TO is out for the season for Philly and then they fuck up and lose straight out to the LAST PLACE dolphins.

I lost a much needed $120 on that pathetic display by Brady and I had NE +.5 on a 10 pt teaser

Fuck the Pats, pathetic losers

I hate them even more now.

Yeah I know don't bet what you can't afford to lose

but this is fricking ridiculous how a top team
vying for a bye can lose to a last place team on such a moronic play by Brady

Are you sure Pro sports are not fixed?

ummm so u haven't had a bad day in two years I suppose?

Shit, I have bad days all the time but I don't expect a Multimillionaire Superstar Superbowl QB to make such a dumb move when a playoff bye is on the line and when they are playing a last place suck ass team like the Dolphins.


How could they lose straight up to the last place team.?
I guess that means my Jets will beat the PAts now as well.

The Patriots showed some weakness in their secondary, if they lose home field advantage in the playoff, they could be vulnerable. On the other hand, I think Pittsburg peaked too early, so its possible that someone else may sneak in, including - I can't believe I am typing this - the Bolts. However, if the Pats regain home field advantage, they're a lock for the AFC championship.


BTW, what was up with those orange uniforms? Is that why Ricky Williams quit?