It`s very common for these teams running hot against the spread to cool off, we`re now seeing that. It`s a little surprising that the other hot teams haven`t lost outright just like the Pats did, this also is common.

Pitt 1-4 ATS last 4 games, Philly 0-2 ATS, Pats 0-2 ATS, Indy 1-1 ATS, Indy was a little lucky when they blocked a field goal against the Ravens that would of tied the score in the 2cd half and probally wouldn`t of covered, and after scoring over 40 points for 4 striaght games they`ve scored 23 and 20 points, a season low, this is very common.

The one remaining team to continue running hot ATS is SD. Contrary to what people might think this doesn`t bode well for getting deep into the playoffs. I`m hoping for SD to play Pitt in Pitt`s opening playoff game, i`ll predict Pitt by 17 points or more, no contest, history shows it.

Oops, should of had Pitt 1-3 ATS last 4 games, not 1-4 ATS.

Well TO`S injury screws up my best bet for the playoffs, would of been on Philly in their opening playoff game, they still should cover but much easier with TO and the over would of been golden.

WEEK 16:

Vikes -3 over Pack --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

5 team parlay --- Vikes -3, Broncos -3 (-125), Pitt -5, Indy -7, 49ers +11 --- 1 unit to win 18 units

5 team parlay --- 1st half --- Vikes -1, Broncos-1.5 (-120),Pitt -3 (-105),Indy -4, 49ers +6.5 (+100) --- 1 unit to win 21.5 units

One of the reasons that Indy didn't score so many points against Baltimore was the fact that Jamal Lewis could run the ball. A team with a good ground game and a good defense can beat Indy because they can keep Manning and company on the sidelines.

I look for San Diego for the straight up win Sunday against Indy for this very reason. Jacksonville beat Indy on the road because they can run the ball and play defense.

I am hoping that my Steelers get to play the Colts in January in Pittsburgh. I love their chances. They will expose the Indy defense and run right at'em and knock their socks off. The lack of a quality defense is a fundamental flaw and will prove costly in the playoffs for Indy.

Just like the Yankees not having quality starters cost them big time ultimately. All of the Arod's in the world didn't make up for the lack of starting pitching. Balance no matter what the sport is an ingredient of a champion.

Fooledagain1
I gotta admire your loyalty. You said at the beginning of the year the Vikes were your team and you were sticking with them. You certainly have, although I'm sure you regret it. You're like the guy bleeding to death saying it's OK it'll stop soon.

WEEK 16;

Raiders +10 (-120) over KC --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit

Broncos -3 ((-135) over Tenn --- 2.7 units to win 2 units

3 team parlay - Raiders +10, (-120) Broncos -3 (-135), 49ers +11 --- 1 unit to win 5.1 units

3 team parlay - Raiders +10 (-120), Pitt -5, Indy -7 --- 1 unit to win 5.7 units

Week 14 Results;

Vikes -6 over Seahawks --- lost 1.1 units
Bucs +6 over SD --- lost 2.6 units

Cincy +11.5 over Pats --- won 2 units
Houston +11 over Colts --- won 2 units
Skins +10 over Philly --- won 2 units

3 team parlay - Cincy+11.5, Houston +11, Skins +10 --- won 5.45 units

1st half;

Cincy +7 over Pats --- lost 1.1 units
Houston +6.5 over Colts --- lost 1.1 units
Bucs +3 over SD --- lost 1.1 units

Skins +6 over Philly --- won 1 unit

3 team parlay --- lost 1 unit

2cd half;

Cincy +3 over Pats --- won 1 unit

Vikes -3 over seahawks --- lost 1.1 units

Week 14 --- won 13.45 units - lost 9.1 units = won 4.35 units

NFL season to Date --- lost 14.75 units
2004 Playoffs --- Won 147.15 units

Total to Date --- Won 132.4 units
A $100 per unit bettor --- Won $13,240 year to date

Week 15 Results;

Vikes -3 over Lions --- lost 1.1 units
Cincy +3 over Bills --- lost 2.4 units
Ravens +7.5 over Colts --- lost 1.1 units

Miami +11 over Pats --- won 1 unit

1st half;

Cincy +.5 over Bills --- lost 1.15 units

2cd half;

Cincy -3 over Bills --- lost 2.1 units

Week 15 --- lost 6.75 units

Nfl season to Date --- lost 21.5 units

2004 Playoffs --- Won 147.15 units

Total to Date --- Won 125.65 units
A $100 per unit bettor --- Won $12,565

Week 16;

Pitt -4 (-125) over Ravens --- 7.5 units to win 6 units
fooledagain1`s highest rated game of the season

Pitt -3 (-105)1st half over Ravens --- 2.1 units to win 2 units

Indy -7 over SD --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Indy -4 1st half over SD --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

49ERS +11 over Bills --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Jets +3 (-135) over Pats --- 1.35 units to win 1 unit

2 team parlay - Pitt -4 (-125), Indy -4 1st half --- 2 unit to win 4.8 units

2 team parlay - Pitt -3 (-105) 1st half, Indy -7 --- 2 unit to win 5.4 units

Indy 2cd half -6.5 (-130) over SD --- 2.6 units to win 2 units

49ers 2cd half +3 (+115) over Bills --- 1 unit to win 1.15 units

Pitt hasn`t punted in 3 games this season, the most of any team since the 60`s. They didn`t punt last week against the Ravens, if they can control the ball like that against the Ravens D what would they do to SD OR Indy`s.

The skins 5 wins have come against oppnents that won 30.7% of their games, that`s the worst in the league. Seattle &49ers wins have come against opp who`ve won 33.3%, next worst.
Worst team in the AFC, Bills, their 9 wins came against opp who`ve won 37%.
The best, KC, their 7 wins came against opp with a 51.4% record.
The best in the NFC, Pack, their 9 wins , opp won 44.4% of games.

Week 17;

Vikes -3 (-125) over Skins 1.25 units to win 1 unit

49ers +14 over Pats 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Pitt +10 (-125) over Bills 1.25 units to win 1 un it

Jets -3 (-115) over Rams 1.15 units to win 1 unit

KC -3 over SD 1.1 un its to win 1 unit

5 team parlay - 49ers +14 , Pitt +10, Vikes -3, Jets -3, KC -3 --- 1 unit to win 19 units

WEEK 16 Results;

Won 11 units
Lost 16.95 units
Total -- lost 5.95 units

2004 NFL Season to Date --- Lost 27.45 units
2004 Playoffs --- Won 147.15 units
2004 Toatl --- WON 119.7 UNITS

Futures bet from week 11 --- Pitt to win Super Bowl (+450) --- 4 units to win 18 units

PRESEASON PICKS

Vikes over 9 wins (+105) --- 6 units to win 6.3 units

Vikes to win Super Bowl (20-1) --- 2 units to win 40 units

2004 NFL MVP - Randy Moss (16-1)--- 1 unit to win 16 units

Jets win division (+450)--- 1 unit to win 4.5 units

Jets over 9 wins (+155) --- 2 units to win 3.1 units

Jets to win AFC (18-1) --- 1 unit to win 18 units

How good are the Steelers? They just beat the hottest team in the NFL on a six game winning streak. The Bills absolutely had to win at home, Pittsburgh played on the road with second and third stringers and won. Don't be fooled by the score, Pittsburgh dominated this game. They have now destroyed Philadelphia, New England, NY Jets, Baltimore and Buffalo in the span of a couple of months. Oh yeah, and Jacksonville on the road who might just miss the playoffs but would dominate in the NFC. The only team that they should worry about is San Diego who gets a lot of lucky breaks and is more fortunate than good. Those teams are scarry, just like the overachieving Chargers team in 1994 whom beat Pitt at Pitt.

15-1 is damned impressive, but reading ANYTHING into what happens in weeks 16-17 of the regular season is retarded. Most teams are just going through the motions, and the teams that have a playoff spot on the line (to wit: Buffalo, Carolina, Minnesota, J'ville last week) tend to choke.

Opening lines
Seattle -4 o/u 52
San Diego -6 44
Indy -10 56
Green Bay -6 48
Let me guess FooledAgain1 pick...take Vikes +6 they have a great defense and Moss is back healthy...was just kidding about their D.

Most likely to be upset next week:

1) San Diego: not much playoff experience

2) Seattle: not very good

3) Green Bay: Favre is at that age when he can have a very bad day at any given game

4) Indy: Denver has the complete package, there is just something intangible missing. They are capable of putting it all together for a playoff run, though.

Explorer,
I beg to differ. Don't bet againt the Horseshoes...

Hey, I was just ranking the possibilities of upsets from most likely to least likely. My feeling is that Indy is least likely to be upset, but I don't know anything about picking winners in the NFL.

Who the hell does anyway...LOL

WEEK 17 Results;

Lost 3.5 units
NFL Season to Date --- Lost 30.95 units

Preseason picks --- Lost 4.9 units

NFL REGULAR SEASON TO DATE --- LOST 35.85 UNITS
2004 PLAYOFFS --- WON 147.15 UNITS


Futures Bets still working;

From week 11 --- Pitt to win Super Bowl (+450) --- 4 units to win 18 units

From preseason --- Vikes to win Super Bowl (20-1) --- 2 units to win 40 units

Jets to win AFC --- 1 unit to win 18 units

A little something to chew on as the playoffs approach - since 1990 only twice have both no. 1 seeds advanced to the super bowl, 1 of the no.1 seeds will most likely get upset - since 1978, the year the 16 game schedule started, only twice have both no. 1 seeds been knock out before the super bowl, 1 of the no.1 seeds will most likely make it to the super bowl - Only 1 no.1 seed has covered the spread in the SB the past 9 SB`S, with 2 pushes, prior to that 13 no.1 seeds covered in a 17 year period.

Some playoff myths - I hear it every year, the playoff games are closer games then the regular season games, wrong, the margin of victory goes up in the playoffs most years, and it`s reflected in the point spreads. Look at Indy, they are a 10 point fav over a 10-6 playoff team, they were only 10pt or more fav twice in reg season, 10 pt fav against a 7-9 team and 12 pt favs against a 5-11 team, look at SD they are 6-7 pt favs ov er a 10-6 playoff team, they were only 6 pt or more favs 3 times this season, against Oak, NO and Clev not a single good team there. The bookmakers also know that the margins of victory go up in the playoffs that`s why you`ll see bigger pt spreads in the playoffs then reg season.


Another one i hear all the time, you want to be hot coming in to the playoffs - consider this, teams losing thier final 2 games are 73% against the spread in thier opening playoff games since the middle 80`s ( watch the jets $ vikes, don`t be surprised if 1 wins outright)- teams losing their final 2 games ATS (against the spread) are 77 % ATS in their opening playoff game.

Who was the hottest team last season coming into the playoffs - Packers - they went 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS THEIR LAST 7, winning their last 4 games by 13, 17, 34, 28, won their final 2 games 41-7, 31-3, doesn`t get any hotter, howed they do in their opening playoff game, won by 6 in OT as a 7 pt fav, didn`t cover. They finished, 1-1 ATS.

What about Philly, they started 2-3 then won 10 of 11 and 10-1 ATS to finish the season. How they do in the playoffs, 0-2 ATS.

The Pats won 12 straight going 11-1 ATS entering the playoffs, how did they do, only 1-2 ATS.

The 3 hottest teams combined for 2-5 ATS.

How abouit Carolina, they went 3-3 SU - 1-5 ATS their final 6 games last season, that`s right just 1-5 ATS going in to the playoffs, how`d they do, 4-0 ATS in the playoffs.

How about Tenn 2 years season, they started 1-4 then won 10 of 11 losing only by 1 pt at Balt, going 9-2 ATS, closing the season winning by 10, 17, 18, 10. How`d they do in the playoffs, 0-2 ATS.

How about the Raiders 2 seasons ago, they finished 7-1 SU - 6-1-1 ATS, winning by a ave of 13.5 pts per game, they went 2-1 ATS in the playoffs, but also played Tenn, those to hot team combined to go 1-2 ATS when not playing each other.

That bring`s the 2 year total to 3-6 ATS for the hottest teams entering the playoffs, and only 1-4 ATS in their opening playoff game. But as usual most won`t be able to resist the temtation to bet the hot teams coming in, the money`s all ready pouring in on SD, they`ve won 10 of 11 and went 10-0-1 ATS, sound fimilar.

There`s no correlation to finishing strong and doing well in the playoffs ATS.

2teams playing on a super bowl level, one of these 2 shoulde win the super bowl -

1. PITT
2. PATS

other teams -

Philly - Were playing at a super bowl level before TO`S injury, doutful they can do it with out him

Indy - would be the worst defense by far to win the SB if they were to win, slim,slim chance to win SB

SD - they fit the same profile as KC last season, rarely do teams like this do well, slim, slim chance to win the SB

Atlanta - been outplayed in most areas, slim, slim, slim chance to win the SB, the most likely bye team to lose opening game

Vikes - could surprise evryone and win the whole thing, NOT !!!, forget it , slim chance

Pack - slim chance to win SB

Rams - one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs, if they somehow manage to beat seattle, which they very well could, will take a major ass whipping from Philly.

Seattle - slim chance to win SB


2005 playoff picks ;
Pitt to win the SB (+220) --- 5 units to win 11 units
Pats to win the SB (+300) --- 5 UNITS TO WIN 15 UNITS

you evaluated every team except the jets and denver

jets have not been themselves lately

Chad may be hurt worse then he is letting on

however they still can and will beat the Chargers

(Message edited by maximus743 on January 07, 2005)

chargers will rock em

not in the rain they won't

Hmm, Maximus, do you pick your favorite team every year? THAT is an intelligent handicapping system...

(Message edited by Porker on January 07, 2005)

Hola Porker,

No, not every year just tomorrow vs the spread and straight up

Well let's see, you loudly pick the Jankees every damned year, and now it's the Jets?

Jet's are done as of this afternoon...

nah nahh nahhh nahhhh... good.... byeeeee....

goodbye Jets!!

Any more picks Max?

Just make the damn FG now!

oooppps.

yur shidding me!

Sometimes one calls a tail a tail,
and sometimes you get a head rammed down yur throat.


Cough, Cough, Choke, Choke.

Boom ----> DM

As Madden and Michaels pointed out, a 40 yard FG in the rain in an overtime playoff game for a rookie kicker is no gimme.

Bolts deserve to lose after those three BS calls before the missed FG. Why even call three runs up the middle with zero chance of gaining yards and every chance to turn the ball over. Go for the first down or kick the f**kin ball !! They were nowhere near gimme range and acted like they had it all wrapped up.

I would love to see Denver upset the Colts. You would think by all the pre-game talk, that Denver should stay in bed... excellent motivation for the buckin' broncs.

Manning on pace for 600 yards passing after 1Q picking on the rookie DB.

not pretty-- I guess motivation doesn't overcome talent deficits

360 yards in a half? Too bad they can't play at home the next 2 weeks.

Does Randy Moss always scream "look at the mutha fuckin scoreboard" at road fans mid-1st quarter? Easy words to eat if the team collapses, something the Vikings are well known for.

Let me list the upsets, in the order of probability:

Eagles - Vikes: without TO, the Eagles may be worse than the Vikes!

Falcons - Rams: the Rams suck, but they may put up 21 early points on the Falcons.

Patriots - Colts: I agree with everything that everyone here has said. I suspect that bad weather and good defense will end the Colt's season.

Steelers - Jets: lock.

Don MArco

SD lost first half, second half and the game

The Jets also had to win the game three times before finally getting what they deserved.

Any more great picks from you?

I won a four team Parlay

only $10 to win 118.35 due to lack of funds caused by a once trustworthy friend

but still 4 for 4

and you?

Porker

I will pick the Yankess again next year as of right now they are the favorites at 9/5.

Max,

send your check to marty...

I went 2-2... Not a good week.

next week:

pitt, atl, phili, and NE all winners.

you?

Talk smack when your 4-4, the throne is a tough seat to keep ;) In the meantime, I'll eat a well deserved (albiet temporary) crow pie.

I'll take Jets +9.5 right now

Will not make a move on the others unitl I do some research.

I will also say I will most likely get an advance on a friends online account and do a 4 team teaser at whatever they allow.

This past week they allowed 4 team 13 point
teaser and my friend was kind enough to spot me and obviously I won that just another $100 though

I like Marty and feel bad for him and the kid that missed the FG but I had to be selfish and root for my Jets who deserved to win especially after that Goal line stand.



(Message edited by maximus743 on January 10, 2005)

Manning and the boys vs. TROY BROWN? Think Edge will fumble twice in the red zone like in week 1? Colts gonna roll into Pittsburgh, then we'll see what happens.

Why would the Colts roll into Pittsburg?

Do they want to sightsee before they go home to face the Jets?

Max, let's see you bet the house on the Jets on the money line, OK? That's called a REAL bet and not a wussy sucker bet like a 4 team teaser.