I got out of the market early by almost a year, but I was already 40% bonds during the bull market.

Therefore I missed some good growth from mid 99 until March- April 2000. No body is perfect.

And being diversified and at times to conservative does not make one psychic. It makes one leary from experience.

Stock Broker is invited to a party, no one really wants to talk to him as afraid they are going to be hustled for business. Market Bottom.

Next party a few are willing to ask him qustions about his personal life, the kids, etc. Market starting to consolidate and up maybe 7-8%.

Next party, He is the center of attention and he is ask to join the local Mensa group. Market up 30% and really reflecting the the value of a great economy.


Next party, held in his honor as he is not only the most intelligent person in his group of friends, but is psychic. A special chair is reserve for him at the center of the dining table so everyone can hear his sage advice. Market bubble getting ready to implode.


Stock Broker is invited to a party, no one really wants to talk to him as afraid they are going to be hustled for business. Market Bottom.

Explorer, it is not true that everyone knew a bubble was forming. I knew people who said that the stock market had entered a new era, where middle class working people would just continue to pour money into mutual funds endlessly, and the stock market would continue to uptrend forever, with only minor cyclical dips along the way. These were college educated people with reasonable IQ's, too. The same people who now think that the real estate market will continue to go up forever, in fact...

Ben, go partying tonight, let us know how it goes.

Kendricks, ah yes, the "new economy". I remember that talk. Not only the everyday people believed it but think of all the cable show talking heads, radio talk show hosts, funds managers talking on Bloomberg TV who swallowed that idea. Remember "sudden wealth syndrome". I suffered from it. Now, well, where is my Zoloft anyways? The shrinks can't lose.

Real estate? A small 2 bdrm, 1 bath 50 year old house down the street from me just sold for $450,000. And I live in an area of SD that for years has been known as the "war zone". Bums pushing shopping carts, drugs, loud parties, college students, lots of traffic, albeit close to the beach (I rather enjoy it). Two gay guys from NYC bought it. I doubt any locals would have. 3 years ago a similar house across the street sold for $250,000. The market has got to be close to the top.

Now Explorer, if it keeps going up, you don't need to point out that I was wrong again. OK??

Investors who try to time the market may get lucky a few times but it only takes one serious miscue to eat up your profits, miss the next boat, or jeopardize your long-term goals.

Always remain diversified among all types of investments and stay true to your long-term plan. And one other thing:

STOP TRYING TO TIME THE MARKET!

Okay, time for a little contest. What will the Dow close at this Friday 7/26? I'll predict first even though that gives me a disadvantage like it does on The Price Is Right.

Dow 7/26 = 8350.

An It's easier to figure out the psychology of a TJ chica than to time the market kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

Ben says 7850 and hopes he keeps getting it wrong.

Ootie,

"STOP TRYING TO TIME THE MARKET!"

Ok, but can I wait for a few flat to positive weeks, maybe a couple of months B4 I start buying??

Maybe I'll just park the RV at Molino Rojo and take it from there.

la dulce vida no mas, que lastima.

ldv

I was in Mexico City all this past week for business. I came back just in time to witness the Friday massacre. I couldn't believe my eyes when the DOW hit below 8,000. Thank God I was gone, or my BDGPA scheme would have backfired. However, before I left, on Monday, K-Mart (KM) started falling like a rock. I purchased some at .55/share (I am a true bottom dweller). The stock closed the week at .67/share (high of .75).

I guess it was the luck of the Irish that save my ass this time on BDGPA. Thanks Explorer for your concern.

Sam,

How could you be in Mexico City all last week.

I saw you in San Diego On Thursday. Oh sorry that was Dogster I saw on Thursday. Man now I am really confused!!!

Hey Superman? What gives?

Benwhoisalwaysconfused

Ben: That was friday. Does that clarify things?

Oh sorry, I never let facts get in the way of a good story.

Sorry Dogster/Sam, I saw him/you on Friday.

I am now thinking that Superman is Dogster and enjoys beating himself up.

Nice move to fool me Super.

Benstillconfused

I'm looking for it to be down on the open then a reversal ending the downward spiral for a bit.
PutanerowhohadQQQcalls@26expireworthlesslastfriday

Well, guys, this is the big week. If the market is lousy for the week, then we are in the for the long haul with really bad things to come.

The good news is that a bad US economy will do go things for the Zona Norte price structure over the afore-mentioned long haul. The first reaction of the bar owners will be to raise prices again, but after a couple of bars close, then maybe the survivors will come to their senses.

Ben says:

"Ben says 7850 and hopes he keeps getting it wrong. "

Hey, its still early Monday AM, and you're right already!

"Would you like a shake with those fries?"

7850 is starting to look optimistic....

I'll stick my neck out and say that the Dow closes at 7600 for the week, +/- 100.

Thanks for the accolades Explorer, but since the open I think 7200 may be a more appropriate number.

I did not have one July call excercised on Friday. I can't remember the last time that happened.

Good sign.

I had a lady(scientist with a Phd) call in a panic and say liquidate everthing to money money market. She is at least 10 years away from retirement.

I have had several similar calls recently.

She will probably call and reinvest in the market in a couple of years when the market is up. Obviously she may be right in her decision, but it is unlikly in my opinion. The economy just doesn't justify the kind of market we are in right now.

What a swing in the market today. Dow up 20 points and it was down 300 earlier.

I'm still waiting for Explorer to explain to us the long term implications of a 300 point drop and subsequent recovery today. July 22 - 26, 2002 is "the big week" that will determine the long haul, but he hasn't explained the implications of all the different scenarios yet.

Kendricks:

I'm not talking about the ups and downs of today, I'm talking about the implication of 3 weeks down in a row - a lot. IF this week is another bad one, that's what we will have had.

It means that the post-Sept 11 rally was a Fool's Rally, which we haven't seen since 1930-31.

Sam:

Check out:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDGPA.OB&d=c&t=1d&l=on&z=b&q=l

It looks like your Budget pattern did a 180 on you.

love the 5 year chart on that one.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDGPA.OB&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l

Well, the point is that Sam discovered a pattern in which the share price would shoot up right at the end of each trading day.

Of course, the moment he bestowed that 'tip' on us, the pattern reversed itself.

Lesson: don't invest on the basis of perceived price patterns, share price is a random walk.

Sorry to disappoint you again Explorer. As I told you, I went to DF last week and didn't do the BDGPA thing. But, today, I did buy WCOME @ .10 (the bottom dweller that I am). It closed at .14 today (high of .17) and sold. Not a bad 40% profit in a day that saw the DOW plumet almost 300 points.

I wouldn't do the BDGPA again until the market stablized. However, since February, I have earned a consistent weekly profit from BDGPA's last 45 minute pop. I have never advocated it being a steady thing, or a system. It was just a random observation of a behavior of some fund manager trying to end the day with a hit.

But, again, I want to thank you for your concern.

Ootie said, "It's easier to figure out the psychology of a TJ chica than to time the market".

That's a total bullshit. I am no way saying it is easy to time the market, but figuring out the chica psychology is IMPOSSIBLE.

Sam:

My point is not that you're losing money on the market, but rather than buying based on patterns is a losing proposition.

However, Sam, you strike me as one of those guys who tells us about his gains, but not his losses. With the market having dropped considerably in the last 2 years, its likely that you've lost your shirt.

I haven't lost my shirt. I've lost *all of my clothes*.

Great post Sam!

Byron, it is not good to try to figure out chica psychology without the professional assistance of an expert in the area. Maybe you should hire a chica broker.

May I suggest that you all include the following Australian brothel in your investment portfolio?:

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20020722_25.html?partner=earthlink

This is the second time in the last several days that people are posting on the same topic twice without citing the other (the first time was double posting about a quadriplegic guy suing a Florida strip club). Dogster, shame on you. You are not upto the most recent publications on this site. Go to Mexico chat board and look for the post by Proctor entitled "Investment Opportunity -- Brothel to Seduce Investors Into Float" 14:06:53 07/22/02. Give credit where it is due.

Speaking of a great investment opportunity, I saw at Caliente that the odds for the Red Sox to win the world series is 1/25. That is a return of 2,500 %...

That's like throwing your money in the toilet. The Red Sox will never win the World Series. Just send the money to me and I'll put it to better use.

-Superman-

Surfing the internet and someone asked about wine investments. The following is one of the responses. I can not verify the accuracy.

Instead of advice on cheap wines, here you have some good, sound financial advice:

If you had bought $1000.00 worth of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00.

With Enron, you would have $16.50 of the original $1,000.00.

With Worldcom, you would have less than $5.00 left.

If you had bought $1,000.00 worth of Budweiser (the beer, not the stock) one year ago, drank all the beer, had fun then turned in the cans for the 10 cent deposit, you would have $214.00.

Based on the above, drinking heavily is the best investment you can make.

Actually BUD has been a pretty good stock to own over the last year.

A double over the past 5 years.

Not bad in this market

Byron can take comfort that the Red Sox are ahead of the Yankees in the New Millennium World Series standings with a record of 0-0 (the Yanks are in the cellar at 0-1).

A Would rather feed the poor than give to the rich kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

I think there is already a baseball thread, for you people who want to discuss that so-called "sport" that a bunch of fat, out of shape middle aged men play while they spit chewing tobacco and fondle their nuts.

Anyway, Ootie, are you saying that all of your money is given to poor people to buy food from other poor people, and none of it spent in businesses on luxury items, manufactured products or consumer goods? Fascinating.

Here's the BUD v. BDGPA chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=bdgpa&k=c1&t=5y&s=bud&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l

Kendricks:

I think what I'm really saying is that I prefer to spread a smile than to to inflict pain (unless the target really deserves the pain). There are two types of people in this world: those who build up and those who tear down.

A Would rather build up kind of guy,

Out-of-Towner

How low can you go? From Yahoooooo

3:30PM: So much for the late rally as the Dow and Nasdaq have stalled... The new 52-week low list is longer than a Cisco conference call (a remarkable 1,071 names), but here are some of the larger ones: Alcoa (AA 24.08 -0.77), Microsoft (MSFT 43.90 -2.41), Sun Micro (SUNW 3.98 -0.08), Disney (DIS 15.75 -0.15), AT&T (T 9.02 -0.50), Merrill Lynch (MER 33.97 -1.80), Merck (MRK 39.23 -0.78), Gap (GPS 11.42 -0.24), Transocean Sedco (RIG 22.65 -0.45), Barnes & Noble (BKS 18.80 -0.35)..

3 more days.

Let's hope that the Powers That Be manage some super rally between now and Friday. This slow death is deadly, indeed.

Ootie, I think it is better to tear down bad things than build up bad things.

Kendrickswholikestotearthingsdown

There are two types of people in this world: those who are always dividing everyone into two different types, and those who know that the world is far to complex to make such simplistic characterizations.

On the bright side, Exxon was up over 2% today.

This is a different deal than the 1990's, some stocks will be up, even when the overall trend sucks. That's the way it was in the 1970's, you could get rich in the market if you knew what you were doing. After the 1970's we got into the bull market, and idiots were making money, so everyone got in.

Over the next few years, you will hear lots of stories about a few people making a bundle, even as the market remains torpid.

I bought some Exxon at $36.75 the other day.

I also bought 200 shares about 3-4 years ago at $63 I think, but it split 2-1. So I have 400 at $31.50 approx and another 500 at $36.75.

It pays a 3 % dividend and I am willing to bet I make more money on Exxon over the next 10 years than I would at the bank. In fact I plan to buy another 100 shares tomorrow.

This will be the last quarter that oil companies in general will compare unfavorable with the year ago quarter. Moving forward you will see the quarters showing growth from the year ago quarters.

Make it stop!!!! Listening to Bloomberg B4 the opening. Yikes, watch out below.

Passing thought yesterday after talking with my broker. I think I'm right in saying his take home pay is a function of the amount of money under his control. Much, much, much less than a couple of years ago. Glad my paycheck isn't tied to the NAZ. Jeez.

Explorer, thanks for the new word (torpid).

ltv (la torpid vida)

Yeah I caught the word "torpid" also and was impressed in a languid sorta way.

Not to be obstreperous, but the current markets are not torpid. I nominate "capricious" as word of the day.

Great day today. If this keep up through Friday, we'll be OK. If the market declines Thursday and Friday, well, that's bad.

BTW, Exxon was down below $30 this AM, per CNBC.

That would have been a good buying opportunity, since Exxon is currently up over 6%.

Yeah, I saw one quote on exxon at $21 at the open and almost crapped in my pants.

Bought 200 shares today

Obviously a mis quote om XOM

Well, I'm slowly moving off the sidelines. Look for a complete collapse from here. 8-D

Great day today, if this keeps up through Friday, my feeling is that morning was The Bottom.