Week 1

Skins -5 over Da Bears --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Skins -3 (-115) 1st half over Da Bears --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit


Cards +3 (-120) over Giants --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Cards +1.5 (1st half) over Giants --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Damn ! Pickin games in week one sucks !!
Gotta have the Ravens come thru to save my ass this weekend ! Hope Payton is lookin up at the lights from his back all night .

-.3 units ain't bad. It is strange how you won the 1st half bets but lost both sides.

I was in a sportsbook at Pueblo Amigo center during the Charger-Cowboy game. At the end of the game it was like roaches when the lights go on. Caliente must have cleaned up on that game, very few people cashed in tix. I had Dallas to over and Dallas to over second half. Two of my few wins. I have to agree with Kuhn, alot of disappointments. Vikings, Panthers, Rams, Broncos. I'm just glad I missed the 10 am games or it would have been an ugly day.

Skins -5 over Da Bears --- lost 1.1 units
Skins -3 over Da Bears (1st half) --- won 1 unit

Cards +3 over Giants --- lost 1.2 units
Cards +1.5 (1st half) --- won 1 unit

2005 NFL Season --- LOST .3 UNITS (2-2)

Yea, that`s funny, it won`t happen often, thought for sure I`d get 1 of the games after winning both 1st halves. 1st halves can save your ass.

week 2

Bills +3 (-125) over Bucs --- 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Bills +.5 (-105)(1st half) --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Cards pk over Rams --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Cards pk (1st half) --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit


Skins +6 (-115) over Cowboys --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Skins +3 (-105) --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Will have Texans over Steelers, 1st half and game, game is off the board now

Week 2

Bills --- lost 2.3 units
Cards --- lost 2.2 units
Texans --- lost 2.2 units

Skins --- won 1 unit

Lost 5.7 units

2005 NFL Season --- lost 6 units

Week 3

Cards +6 over Seahawks --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Cards 1st half +3.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Bills -2.5 (-115) over Falcons --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Bills 1st half -1.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Oop's, actually have
Bills 1st half -.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
brain's not working at present time.

Dude, you posting your picks here takes balls. I am FAR more of a pussy as I almost always chicken out when it actually comes to putting my money down on a game I like, and it's not like I'm right often enough to kick myself for not betting that often.

But YOU, man, seem to be quite the consistent loser on regular season NFL games. Your 'unit' gets lost seemingly every week.

One thing I'd advise, take it for what it's worth: Stop trying to pick teams with either shitty offenses (or just plain shitty in general) to somehow 'surprise' against the spread. You seem to be overly obsessed with that instead of trying to actually WIN.

Yeah but he is always a huge net unit winner by the end of the playoffs

Porker -- I don't claim to be any regular season expert, it's tough to win over regular season but don't be surprised if my picks rebound sometime soon.

Thanks for the advice.

WEEK 3 RESULTS

Bills -2.5 --- lost 1.15 units
Bills 1st half --- lost 1.1

Cards +6 --- lost 1.1 units
Cards 1st half --- won 1 unit

lost 2.35 units

NFL SEASON TO DATE --- LOST 8.35 UNITS

week 4

Texans +10 (-120) over Bengals --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Texans 1st half +6 (-105) --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Bills pk over Saints --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Bills 1st half pk (-105) --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Cards -2.5 over 49ers --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Cards 1st half -.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Skins -1.5 over Seahawks --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Skins 1st half pk (-120) --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Ride The Skins Baby !!!!

Did I hear right? Mexico City has been awarded an NFL franchise? I'd like to get in on the concession cut at Estadio Azteca. I'd open my own stand and call it "Cagüamas Y Churros."

I'd have the fans "up" for the game...

WEEK 5

Bills -3 (-105) over Dolphins --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Bills 1st half -.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Texans -3 (+100) over Titans --- 1 unit to win 1 unit
Texans 1st half -.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Cards +3 (-120) over Panthers --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Cards 1st half +.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Skins +7 over Broncos --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Skins 1st half +3.5 (+100) --- 1 unit to win 1 unit
RIDE THE SKINS BABY, YEA NOW !!!!

WEEK 5 FUTURES BET

Texans to win the Super Bowl +50000 --- 1 unit to win 500 units

Should be able to bet against this bet down the road, here come the Texans !!!

WEEK 6

Bills -3 (-120) over Jets --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Bills 1st half -1.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Texans +10 (-130) over Seahawks --- 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Texans 1st half +6 (-105) --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Skins +6 (-120) over KC --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Skins 1st half +3 (-115) --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
RIDE THE SKINS, BABY !!!!

Skins look like a good pick as a surprise team thus far, today should tell the story if they can win the game. But my Texans look like 1 of the worst picks in history, they flat out suck bad. Might have to give up on em soon.

WEEK 4 RESULTS

Texans - won game - lost 1st half --- lost .05 units

Bills - lost game - lost 1st half --- lost 2.15 units

Cards - won game - lost 1st half --- lost .1

Sklins - won game - won 1st half --- won 2 units

lost .3 units

NFL Season to date --- lost 8.65 units

WEEK 5 RESULTS

Bills vs miami --- won 2 units

Texans vs titans --- lost 2.15 units

Cards vs panthers --- lost .2 units

Skins vs Broncs --- lost .1 units

lost .45 units

NFL Season to date --- lost 9.1 units

WEEK 6 RESULTS

Bills vs jets --- won 2 units
Texans vs seahawks --- lost 2.35 units
Skins vs kc --- lost .2 units

lost .55 units

NFL Season to date --- lost 9.65 units

FOOLEDAGAIN1`S TOP 10

Here`s a list of the top 10 teams at winning the 5 most imporant stats that correlate to winning the Super Bowl.
This tells which teams are consistently outplaying their opponents on the field and which teams have the most balance.
Over 80% of the time the Super Bowl winner will finish 1st or 2cd.


1.Cincy (25 wins) IF they continue to play this well, this will be the team to back come playoff time.
2.Indy (23.5) wins
3.Jax (21.5)
4.Denver (21)
5.Dallas (20.5)
5.Tampa (20.5)
7.Pitt (20.4) Played only 5 games but on pace to win 20.4 over 6 games for comparances purposes
8.Seattle (20)
9.KC (18.6) played 5 games, see pitt
10.NY Giants (18) played 5 games also, see pitt


Keep in mind, it`s still early with alot of football to be played. This is how teams have played up to this point, some of these teams will fall back and some will continue to play well, these teams that continue to be at the top of this list will be the teams to back come playoff time.

4 or 5 games is a really small sample size. If some team gets an easy first 4 or 5 games, the stats you are invoking will show them as a Super Bowl favorite.

On the other hand, by the time the sample size gets meaningful, closer to a full season, such obvious characteristics as Best Rushing Defense will make them not only a statistical favorite, but also give them home field advantage in the playoffs.

Bottom line: stats after 4 or 5 games don't predict much, which is, after all, the point of the exercize.

WEEK 7

Skins -12.5 over 49ers --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Skins 1st half -7 --- 1.1 to win 1

Bills +3 (-115) over Raiders --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Bills 1st half +.5 (-105)--- 1.05 to win 1

Cards -3 over titans --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Cards 1st half -3 (-105) --- 1.05 to win 1

It`s funny i got Cards -3 on both game and 1st half, bet game early in week but no 1st half line out yet, then game taken off the board because of Mcnair. Mcnair`s out, line goes up.


Week 7 futures bet
Cincy to win AFC (+1000) --- 2 units to win 20 units

Oh my GOSH, you almost broke even!

Ha, ha, ha, ha,ha,ha,ha, smart asssss !!!! My regular season picks have alot to be desired, if i ever perfect the regular season the way i`ve done the playoffs i`ll move to Vegas and become a millionaire.

WEEK 7 RESULTS

Skins vs 49ers --- won 2 units

Bills vs Raiders --- lost 2.2 units

Cards vs Titans --- lost .05 units

lost .25 units

2005 NFL Season to Date --- Lost 9.9 units

Here`s a list of the top teams in total yards, a stat that correlates very well to winning Super Bowls and having playoff success.


1. Skins 387(offense)-266(defense)= 121 yds. Look who`s sitting at number 1, who`d of thunk it !!!! Ride the Skins baby !!!!
2. Seattle 390 - 299 = 91
3. Tampa 322 - 233 = 89
4. Indy 354 - 278 = 76
5. Dallas 359 - 293 = 66
6. Cincy 370 - 316 = 54
7. Philly 357 - 321 = 36
8. Arizona 345 - 311 = 34
9. Jax 300 - 274 = 26
10 Pats 378 - 353 = 25
11 Pitt 319 - 296 = 23

other teams

Denver 340 - 330 = 10
SD 334 - 324 = 10
Giants 322 - 412 = -90


History shows teams that make the Super Bowl outgain their oppnents by over 20 yards per game. Since the 16 game schedule in 1978, 46 of 54 (85%) teams that made the Super Bowl outgained their oppnents by over 20 yards.

21 of 27 (77.8%) teams who`ve won the Super Bowl outgained their oppnent`s by 45 yards or more.

The 6 teams who`ve won the Super Bowl that didn`t outgain their oppnents by 45 yards or more.
1. 86 Giants 39
2. 90 Giants 37
3. 87 Skins 24 (strike year)
4. 03 Pats 23
5. 80 Raiders 0 1st wild card team to win
6. 01 Pats -29 by far worse team stats wise to win Super Bowl

Interesting, the Pats have 2 of the 3 worst teams on the list, Bellicheck was involved with 4 of 6 teams.

I LOVE the Giants this weekend.

How many people got the okie doke on friday when the miami game was played on friday instead of as regularly scheduled?

"46 of 54 (85%) teams that made the Super Bowl outgained their oppnents by over 20 yards. "

and 100% of teams that made the Super Bowl wear uniforms!

Statistics that include teams are worthless, statistics that exclude teams have some value. IF the statement was that "NO team that didn't outgain its opponents by 20 yards a game made the Super Bowl", that would be significant.

I couldn`t disagree with you more, to say that every team that makes the super bowl needs to outgains it`s opp by 20 yds for the stat to be significant would be to say there will never be upsets. There will always be upsets in sports. You have to take upsets into consideration. There`s always going to be the occasional team that gets lucky and sneaks in to the SB.

Point being, this stat is a guide, any teams under 20 yds can pretty much be eliminated from making the big game. And if I`m right 85% of the time, well quess what, I`ll gladly take that.



Statisics that include teams are worthless, not sure what you mean by that.What`s a statistic that includes teams ?

Using that same total yds stat i posted, it played a role in how i predicted Philly would crush Atlanta in last season NFC title game and that San Diego would not do well in the playoffs, both predictions were dead on the money.

Here`s each teams total yds last season;
Atlanta 318-325= -7 teams like this just don`t make super bowls
SD 347-335= +12
neither team super bowl worthy, and it held perfectly to form

BTW, if I remember correctly and I`m sure I do, in last seasons NFL Playoff`s you predicted Philly would choke and not make the super bowl just like they did in the 3 previous seasons.

Well, let`s take a look and see what total yds had to say about Philly`s chances in their 3 NFC title game loses.

2002
Philly 308-294= +14 not super bowl worthy
Rams 418-279= +139 super bowl winner type stats

2003
Philly 350-297= +53 SB winner type stats
Tampa 313-253= +60 SB winner type stats

2004
Philly 315-332= -17 not SB worthy
Carolina 321-295= +26 SB worthy type stats

2005
Philly 366-313= +53 SB winner type stats

Was it a choke job ? Looks pretty clear, it wasn`t !!!!

Interesting that all the experts thought the 2004 team had all the experience and should of made the SB and that game was a big upset, when in fact that was Philly`s worst team and it was no upset at all.

To the untrained eye those games looked like upsets, to the person who knew the history of the playoffs those games looked like they went according to form.

I posted before the playoffs started, that the 2004 Philly had no chance to win the SB and total yds played a role in making that prediction and was right on the money.

Let me give you some examples how statistics work in sports. Since sports, like life, can be pretty random, what you need to do is to look for statistics that are extremely predictive. Here is a example from baseball, but the methodology works for all sports:

Ralph Kiner has hit more home runs than 85 percent of the players in the Hall of Fame (actually, this is just an example, I am not sure of the data). He had a better fielding average than 85 percent of the players in the Hall of Fame. Therefore, Ralph Kiner is a lock to reach the Hall of Fame. Not.

Barry Bonds has hit 700+ home runs. He has 2000 walks. No player with more than 700 HRs has ever not been elected to the Hall of Fame. Barry Bonds is a lock to reach the Hall of Fame (unless non-baseball factors come into play). Yes.

Find those statistics that are virtually absolutely common to winners, and you will be generating some real data, as long as the sample size is big enough.

Speaking of Philly, their ratio of runs to passes really sucks, and no team with such a ratio ever reached the Super Bowl, let alone won it.

I agree to some degree, but to say 100% of teams to reach the SB should outgain their opp by over +20 total yds to make the stat worth while, I totally disagree.
There will always be upsets or injuries to the key players on the best teams which allows lesser teams to slide throu.
There`s also the human factor, teams get overconfident and sometimes just flat out have bad games.
And then you have the tuck rule and the music city miracle, which allowed 2 of the teams to slide into the SB.
Point being, there`s always a certain amount of luck in any game, unless 1 team is vastly, vastly superior just pure luck could play a role.
Also, total yds is just 1 area teams can excel, there are other stats that are equally important, a given team could excel in another area. When u have combinations of stats the % goes up.

WEEK 8

Lions -3 (+100) over Da Bears --- 1 unit to win 1 unit
Lions 1st half -1.5 --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

Skins +3 (-115) over Giants --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Skins 1st half +.5 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Ride the Skins baby !!!! BRINGitON Giants !!!!!

The line has dropped to 1.5 at a few of the places I play. Did you buy the hook yesterday? I just put a little more on the Giants. Gotta love the homefield advantage and Eli Manning.

I got that when it first opened, i figured with skins winning 52-17 last week the public would go with the skins and push the no. lower.

Were the Giants just a tad pump up for the game or what ? They crushed my skins.

Has any team ever won by 35 one week then lost by 36 the next?

The conventional wisdom is right: Washington's just NOT that good.

I agree. The Skins are not that good but average at best. IMO, they lose to Philadelphia next Sunday.

WEEK 9

NO +3 (-120) OVER Da Bears --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
49ers +11 over G-men --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Bucs pk over Panthers --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

3 team parlay --- 1 unit to win 5.7 units
NO +3 (-120)
49ers +11
Bucs pk


Skins -3 (-115) over Philly --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Ride The Skins !!!!!

This is the week i sweep the board and get almost back to even.

I feel that the Patriots are going to beat the Colts today. I have no scientific evidence for this feeling, though.

The question is, will the Colts beat the Patriots TOMORROW?

Easy to kick a guy when he's down, but, no, I won't do that, I'll be positive. Fooledagain, congrats on getting your money back on one of those 4 bets!

Thanks for those kind words Porker, ur a true gentlemen, smart asssssss !!!!!!!!!

WEEK 8 RESULTS
lost 4.35 units
NFL Season to date --- lost 14.25 units

WEEK 9 RESULTS
lost 3.4 units
NFL Season to date --- lost 17.65 units

WEEK 10

Skins pk over Bucs --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

49ers +14(-130) over Da Bears --- 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Jets +10 (-130) over Panthers --- 2.6 units to win 2 units

Texans +17 over Colts --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

2 team parlay --- 2 units to win 4.68 units
Jets +10 (-130)
Texans +17

Ahhh, doubling up on the dregs of the NFL in an attempt to get closer to "even". Dude, you REALLY should consider quitting while you're BEHIND.

shit i am the dumbest nfl gambler and I am 4-2-3 (yes 3 pushes), so are you down $2k or $4k so far this season or do you play pesos?

In the words of my beloved Uncle ,who is a professional gambler, THE Golden Rule is always bet the team you think will win the game. If you think the spread is too high-- LAY OFF THE GAME !

I have followed this advice faithfully and it has served me well over the years. Betting on the clearly inferior team to cover the spread is a losing proposition in the long run. You may hit one now and then - but the averages are against you.