Porker - I`m not doubling up to get closer to even, doubling up because the indicaters say so, pretty much in the books I`ll win 1 of the double ups and likely both.

Athos - For the record here`s all my picks posted on the site :
2004 playoffs --- won 147.15 units
2005 playoffs --- won 114.89 units
2004 NFL regular season and preseason futures --- lost lost 42.85 units
2005 NFL regular season --- lost 17.65 units

Total of all picks posted --- WON 201.54 UNITS
$100 per unit bettor has --- WON $20,154


KM - I`m well aware that the winning team usually covers the spread, backing the better team is a good way to go.

Nice 2-0 start in the morning games. I really hope the Jets can stay close for your parlay. If I can ask a personal question, what is the amount of your unit?

Fooledagain

Looks like you did pretty well this weekend ignoring the conventional wisdom. Some crazy games though- esp the Bears who TOTALLY dominated the 9ers and should have won by 30 cept they played in a frigin hurricane and made way too many mistakes.


I'm not preachin at you - just imparting words of wisdom from my beloved Uncle who got me hooked on this shit in the first place.I had a bad weekend so far but I'm still up over $6,000 for the season- not too bad. Still got a few bets ridin on Denver and Seattle to cover my ass for the day or more if parlay hits.

Bottom line, you bet 4.6 units on a BAD team with the immortal Brooks Bollinger at QB against one of the 10 best in the NFL playing at home. Your "indicators" got you an ass-whooping.

I better take a deep breath here and say AGAIN that it's cool how you post your picks for the peanut gallery to rip, and it's REALLY damned easy to find fault with OTHER PEOPLE'S picks. BUT, dude, you bet on the shittiest teams in the league week after week and somehow expect them to be 'less shitty' than everybody thinks they are. That's not too smart, IMO.

Due Dilligence

Not sure about Fooledagain but my unit is 10 inches .

( In my dreams )

I for one would like to see this madness stop. Consistently betting on bad teams is self destructive. Instead it might make better sense to make a pass/dont pass bet in Craps where luck truly rules. If my memory serves correct, the best team that I've seen posted is the Skins. Why have we not seen teams like the Colts, Broncos, or Panthers ever posted? Fooledagain, you are really going to have to press your bets to get out of this season's hole. If you are only betting 10 bucks a game like me, ignore my post. If not, you really need to be careful and STOP betting on teams like the Saints, Texans, 49's etc.

I guess a guy who looses his shirt betting on bad teams could make money in the playoffs, since there generally aren't that many bad teams in the playoffs.

BTW, I would fire the head coach of the Ravens, since they aren't that interesting to watch. Who wants a team that is boring, never mind that they won a Super Bowl back in the Clinton Administration.

FooledAgain says:

"Athos - For the record here`s all my picks posted on the site :
2004 playoffs --- won 147.15 units
2005 playoffs --- won 114.89 units "

I believe that FA won about 15 units or so for the 2005 playoffs, not 114.89 units. Until the SuperBowl, he was below water, and made it up on picking the Pats to win it all in a pre-season bet. Otherwise, he may have in negative numbers for all of the 2005 playoffs.

Explorer, I was thinking exactly the same thing about his picking teams in the playoffs. Which team is 'less dogshit?' is not usually a primary consideration.

Re: those playoff numbers, 80+ % of those profits were from NBA playoff betting if I remember correctly. Which obviously has NADA to do with picking games out of one's ASS during the NFL regular season.

The good news for the REST of us: Fooledagain's picks are frickin' money in the bank if betting against him in the NFL regular season and suddenly switching sides in the playoffs!

And re: Billick, can you believe that when he got the Balmer job he was reckoned as some kind of OFFENSIVE GENIUS due to the 'lob it up to Moss' strategy he no-brained as OC in Minnesota? I don't hear too many people pontificating about the ensured success of the 'Boller ratio'.

I honestly respect Fooledagain1 for at least going on the record his opinons and bets. Win or lose. and before the fact.

It's easy to critisize a guy when he's down and most will bandwagon a guy's picks if he's up and on a roll.

Truth is, no one has the answers on what is going to happen in any given game. It's all speculation. He obvioulsy enjoys gambling and formulating his betting stragety. For all the critics please show your picks and share your strategies.

It is great that he posts his picks ahead of time.

WEEK 10 RESULTS

Lost --- 2.7 units

NFL Season to Date --- Lost 20.37 units

Wait till ya see what I got 4 ya this week.
WEEK 11

Da Bears +3 (-115) over Panthers --- 3.45 units to win 3 units

Jets +14 (-120) over Bronco`s --- 3.6 units to win 3 units

2 team parlay --- 2 units to win 4.8 units
Da Bears +3 (-115)
Jets +14 (-120)


Cincy +7 (-140) over Colts --- 1.4 units to win 1 unit

Prop Bet
When will the Colts lose ?
Week 11 (+220) --- 1 unit to win 2.2 units

The ml was +190, the prop is +220, hey I`m not to smart here but I figured this one out, take the prop, ddaaaa !!!!

BRINGitON !!!!! It`ll be 14 units when I sweep the board this weekend !!!

Here`s a few more prop`s on the Colts.

Will the Colts go undefeated in the reg season ?
Yes --- +375
No ---- -570

Colts to go undefeated and win the super bowl --- +1100

Highly, highly unlikely Colts go undefeated.
Consider this - The undefeated Miami team played 1 of easiest sechdules, they played 2 teams with winning records in the reg season both those teams were 8-6.
That unbeaten Miami team was a underdog in the super bowl against Skins.

The Colts 2cd half sechdule is to tough to go unbeaten.

5.6 units on Brooks Bollinger's Jets? What was that saying that Forrest Gump used to have?

There is not a gambler in the world that will tell you to double (or in your case, QUINTUPLE) up when running horribly bad.

It's OK, though, I'm sure you're playing with mortgage money or anything...

All the stars are lined-up perfectly for the Jets, possible outright upset, would of parlayed money line with bears on ml but none offered for Jets. Likely the game will come down to final possesion as to who wins.

Don`t be surprised

The Jets are circling the DRAIN, dude! Do you pay ANY attention to the matchups, or do you just look for the biggest dog and say 'Let's load up on THEM!'

Bollinger's a CLOWN, Martin's running on one leg, half the starting line's on IR and they weren't getting the job done when those guys were HEALTHY.

Jets pts. scored this year in road games: 7, 3, 17, 14, 3. An average of less than 9 points per game. Pathetic.

The spread is an excellent handicap in any NFL football game, and if the Jets stay ultra-conservative, make a big play on D or special teams and do a better job than any team in the NFL has in the last two months at stopping the Broncos running game, then YEAH, they have a chance at staying within two touchdowns.

But unless you have some info about a blizzard hitting Denver just before game time, no way that game's close in the 4th quarter.

This game's like USC-Fresno St. or something...

OOPS, BAD EXAMPLE!

Fooled(everyweek)again, I do wish you luck, though. But if you get your ass kicked again this week, hopefully you'll stop multiplying your losses. It's just REALLY stupid.

Did the Jets even manage to cross midfield?

WEEK 11 RESULTS

Lost 5 units

NFL Season to Date --- Lost 25.37 units

WEEK 12

Cowboys +3 (-125) over Broncos --- 2.5 units to win 2 units

Fooledagain -- Thanks I was hoping you would give me guidance on how to bet this turkey day. My baht are going down on Denver this week. I was already leaning in that direction- your pick sealed the deal !! No offense intended - just pullin ur leg a bit !!


I have noticed that with your bets either you are buying points- which I think is a total waste of money- or you have a terrible gambling site with outrageous vig. The liklihood that a half a point will make a difference in your bet is in NO way worth the money you sacrifice .

SHIT!!! I am a chargers fan.

FA, at least the Cowboys did not cost you your unit today.

WEEK 12

Seahawks -4 (-120) over Giants --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Seahawks -2.5 1st half over Giants --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

There, I hope everyone`s happy, I bet the team with the best record in the NFC.

KM - I do buy points but only when I can get to a key number like 3,4, 6, 7 or 10, margins many games r won by. The jury`s out on whether it`s worth it or not.
I done well buying points in the playoffs over the years, if u win enough then it doesn`t get u much but when u lose u lose more.
Sometimes it`s the book, they will move the odds instead of the number because they don`t want to get middled. Good example this week is Bucs and bears, Bucs -3 (-110) is now -3 (+105), they`re scared to death to move off the number 3.

BTW, I do like Bucs -3 and Bills +4 also but will sit tight with just Seahawks.

FA I guess you came out all right by buying half a point in then Cowboy game. I had the Broncs minus two and a half so I did even better.

I think your right with the Seahawks but gotta go against the Bills even with the 4. Da Bear's game is a tossup. Not gonna touch that one .Depends on how Orton handles the defensive pressure he will get. The under is now down to 32 and falling. Still the better bet than the winner IMHO.

FA:

Your bet is the lock of the week.

Better news is that you picked a team without a shitty 4th string QB.

In defense of FA, he was picking bad teams, but there WAS a point spread. If you pick bad teams with a big point spread, over time you will do the same as if you picked the good teams on the other side of the spread.

Damn FA I guess the playoffs cannot come fast enough for you. Even Porker's lock of the week comes up short for you- go figure. You shoulda bought the point !!
I had them in a 3 team parlay - didn't matter because of the dysfunctional Raiders. Can't believe they can't trash the useless Dolphins at home !!
I have the Saints on the money line parlayed with under 37 tonight - already ahead but that will get me way ahead !! Had the under on the Bears with the Bolts -4 . I thought that one was a dead bet . Thank Buddha for LT !!

BTW Explorer - I will still maintain that hoping a lousy team covers any spread is a losing proposition in the long run. There must be some place that tracks these kind of things ??

The record for Porker's "lock of the week" would likely give fooledagain a run for his money for the surest way to lose one's unit! But I issued no such proclamation, KM.

Explorer, what you are saying is true but at least there is some consistency with good teams. For example, look at how the Dolphins were shut out against the Browns and then beat Oakland handily today. How is anyone supposed to handicapp these lower echelon teams. Some days they show up to play and the rest of the time they tank. I'm not saying my method is correct, but I will stick to betting the top 25 % of the teams.

Porkster
It seems I had a blind moment and attributed Explorer's lock to you. Did not mean to put words in your mouth - just a brain fart- an increasingly common ocurrence.

Of course there is NO such thing as a lock - if there were we would all be rich and the casinos would be destitute.

OK boys, IŽll help you but coming from a non profit guy, take the chargers the next 2 weeks at home.

I was in Rio yesterday and did I really see Kerry Collins throw 4 ints in the 4th quarter, 2 of them called back for defensive flags. He also overthrew a 2 yard pass to wide open Porter by 2 yards. Directv broke my heart when CBS switched to the end of chargers game and cut off picture.

Damn, the Giants even screw me up when they make the spread! Who would have thought that Feely would miss 3 FGs at the end of the game!!!???

The good news for the Giants is that they pretty much kept Seattle's offense in check the whole game, and Manning and company were not too bad on offense. It was those idiot penalties that killed the Giants, without those penalties, it would have never gone to OT.

fooledagain-
I really luv the skins -3.5 against the Rams. What do you think?

I'd take Hollywood High against the Rams right now if I didn't have to lay TOO many points.
It's one thing for a total newbie QB to come into the game in an emergency - a totally different situation when he has to think about starting all week . The Skins suck but the Rams are in far worse shape .

DD, I guess we'll see if defense trumps all in the NFL or not. Redskins have scored >21 points 3 times in 11 games. Rams have scored <24 points in only 2 out of 11 games, and average 28.4 in 5 homes games so far, which means Redskins, you'd figure will have to win a shootout, something that you would THINK they would be spectacularly unequipped to pull off.

But then again, they're facing the Rams D...

I think the Rams O will be the difference, but I'm almost ALWAYS wrong!

The game that screams HIT ME to ME is Cincinnati beating the piss out of Pittsburgh. The Bengals are playing a LOT better than the Steelers right now, and if Big Ben is anything but 100% with that injured thumb on the throwing hand the game will be a joke.

DD - Ride the Skins baby !!! Seems they should pick up a win one of these days.

Hey Porker
Not related to Steelers or Chargers, but on this trip to Brasil, it suddenly occured to me that I have never sampled so many perfect tits in my life. Only thing related to all these girls were they were between 18 and 21. My favorite was Natalia, 19, 2 months on the program from interior de Rio Grande do Sul, with huge D cups and they had to fall even at that age. I had to stop her blowing when after blowing for 30 minutes and enjoying every second, I realized she would not stop. And no she did not lick my ass, these southern girls are so prude. Actually bit related to SEA, 1/16th korean, rest mix of brasil, italy, portugal, spain.
IŽll be at the game tomorrow, Chargers in a cakewalk vs Collins and co.
I cant believe I still have a shot at the under with the redskins, ride the skins baby 2-6 in last 8 weeks.

The Cincy game does have "hit me" written all over it. It seems to good to be true and I will probably pass on it. It has "trap" written all over it.

Lucky WEEK 13

Cincy +3 (+100) over Steelers --- 1 unit to win 1 unit
Cincy ml +150 over Steelers --- 1 unit to win 1.5 units
G-men -3 (-105) over Boys --- 1.05 units to win 1 unit
KC +.5 over Broncos --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
GB +7 over Da Bears --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit


4 TEAM PARLAY --- 1 unit to win 11.85 units
Cincy +3
G-men -3
KC pk
GB +7

QB+broken thumb= 3 interceptions= loss....its a simple as that. -4 in turnover ratio is going to make you lose no matter what and combine that with botches in special teams(3 Cincy kick returns ending in Steeler territory, 1 to the 4 yard line) and you have a recipe for disaster. I have to admit, Ben was tough out there and despite two gloves and a shot of pain killer, he still managed to throw some bullets. The problem was that when he tried to stretch the defense with long throws the end result were wobbly balls picked off by Cincy.

When Rotlesberger is healthy, he is as good as it gets and Steelers are top 5 NFL team, when he is not healthy, they are a bottom 5 NFL team, as they are now.

No team is luckier than the Chargers right now. Since Pitt beat them in SD, Rothlesberger has been hurt and they have lost 4 games. In addition, Leftwhich has a broken ankle and it out for the season. If Indy has home field advantage going into the Charger game, they may rester their starters...giving the Chargers another break.

With this much parity in the NFL it boils down to turnovers and injuries. The only legitimate team that I would consider great now in the NFL is the Colts. I just cant see anyone beating them in Indy during the playoffs and no team from the NFC can beat them in the SB.

anyone got a violin?

Perhaps next year, but I doubt it.

Imagine how good the Bears would be if they had a quarterback ??
I had to laugh wnen the anouncers said Orton had a 5.9 QB rating for the game. Not sure I have ever heard of a rating that low .
Thank God the defense is scoring more than the offense.

Stillers vs Da Bears next week should have an over under line of about 28 - anything over that bet the farm ! I wonder if there will be a prop that the defenses score more than the offenses .

Fooledagain, that was nice capping. If not for all the Green Bay turnovers, you would have gone 5-0. Why were the Skins not on the CH card?? They seemed like the best play on the board.