I have officially shaved. DOW 7560

Oh, referring to my work sheets.

Incidently, I do a work sheet on every stock I buy and in some cases I have bought and sold options on the same stock for a couple of years.

Here is an example of a stock I bought at over $21 in October, 2000 and sold in Jan. 2002 for $7.50, yet I still made a profit on the stock of $668.00. Admittedly the profit was not much for waiting over a year, but if I had just bought the stock and watched it slide I would have lost allot of money. Probably would have lost as much as $7,000.

AMD is currently selling around $6.50 and I would not buy it.

AMD Advanced Micro Devices
Price
DATE Description Price Per Share

10-13-00 Purchase 500 Shares AMD $10,889.50 $21.78

10-13-00 Sold 5 Jan. 01 22 1/2 Calls ($1,690.50) ($3.38)

10-13-00 Net Cost Per Share $9,199.00 $18.40

1-19-01 Options Expired

1-22-01 Sold 5 Mar 22 1/2 Calls ($1,186.50) ($2.37)

1-22-01 Net Cost Per Share $8,012.50 $16.03

3-16-01 Bought to Close 5 Mar 22 1/2 Calls $554.50 $1.11

3-16-01 Net Cost Per Share $8,567.00 $17.13

3-16-01 Sold 5 July 22 1/2 Calls ($2,285.50) ($4.57)

3-16-01 Net Cost Per Share $6,281.50 $12.56

7-20-01 Options Expired

7-24-01 Sold 5 Aug 15 Calls ($1,160.00) ($2.32)

7-24-01 Net Cost Per Share $5,121.50 $10.24

8-15-01 Bought To Close 5 Aug. 15 Calls $155.00 $0.31

8-15-01 Sold 5 Oct. 12 1/2 Calls ($1,445.00) ($2.89)

8-15-01 Net Cost Per Share $3,831.50 $7.66

9-26-01 Bought to Close 5 Oct. 12 1/2 Calls $130.00 $0.26

9-26-01 Sold 5 Jan. 7 1/2 Calls ($945.00) ($1.89)

9-26-01 Net Cost Per Share $3,016.50 $6.03

1-22-02 Sold/Assigned 500 Shares AMD


If Stock Is Assigned Jan.18, 2002

Profit From Stock ($7,204.50)
Profit From Options $7,873.00
Total Return $668.50
Percent Return 22.16%
Annual Return 455 Days 17.53%

Ben
You keep selling calls. Have you ever been into "puts"? And, I am not referring to puntas. Your investment strategy is extremely conservative. Over the long haul, has your investment style paid off? I am a run and gun type of invester: no guts, no glory. I have been to the moon with profits; then, I have crashed, burned, and shot down in flames with losses. I think that due to my investment style, my best investment is in myself in business.

I have sold puts a few times, but rarely.

The last two years I have mainly been in calls and muni bonds which have paid off very well.

I will probably be more bullish by the middle of next year, but I have seen ten year bear markets and selling in the money calls has worked pretty well this year.

Hell Ben
Sam's 7560 kinda kills nearly a 200 point spread between him and your previously posted 7750.I'm going to try to sneak in there at 7655.Yeah I know it's only 95 points instead of a hundred but thats my guess.
Putanero

Ben,

"but I have seen ten year bear markets"

I guess that means that you've seen nine of them end. Let's hope you see the end of the 10th soon!!!

yikes

Ldvee,

What I meant to say was I have seen one bear market that lasted approx. 10 years. The 70's basically. High inflation, high oil prices, crummy stock market.

Ah yes, guess my reading was based upon wishful thinking. Especially since I've read bear markets happen every 5 years or so and if you had seen 10, you've been watching for a long time.

Let's put it this way - Let's hope you don't see two ten year bear markets.

Well said Ldvee,

I bailed out of Home Depot today at $30.28. Made approx $1700.00, more than half the profit from the option that I sold a month ago.. I could have sold some more calls, but I guess I am just to conservative right now.

I also had my GE stock called away at $25 and now own no GE or HD.

Hey if you can make a profit in this market, just take it and wait for the next big drop(like we are seeing today) and then buy back in and then of course sell some more options.

The middle of October will be interesting as many companies will begin announcing their third quarter earnings. Some companies like NYCB will probably have very big earnings growth. I am not recommending NYCB or any other stock, butsome stocks are doing well in this market.


Ben'sideaseasiersaidthandone

Dow 8,075

Hmmm ... I was hoping that the late July rally would hold.

Now that its clear that it was a blip, we have to look at the outcome from the latest Dow slow descent.

Here's the problem: this recession is different than most, because so far, those most affected are those who made paper profits in the 1990's. What hasn't happened (unlike prior recessions) is that the vast majority of Americans have not been adversely and directly affected by the recession. I was hoping that this wouldn't happen, that the market would correct itself, and we would move on, kind of like when you feel a cold coming on, but it goes away before the misery really starts.

But, this latest drop indicates that this one is real. IF we get into a real recession (defined as "jobs at McDonalds start looking pretty good"), with working class people feeling the pinch ON TOP OF the current upper income crunch, then we have the pattern that brought us the Great Depression. Stay tuned!

Great Depression?

Lets see? How many times have I seen or read that statement over the past 30 Years?

Too many times to count.

Great Depression was caused by many things, mainly caused by people being able to borrow up to 90% on margin to buy stocks and in addition bank failures where all depositors lost their saving(no FDIC or any other type insurance).

Add on top of that the drought in the midwest and southwest that lasted many years where farmers lost thie crops year after year and eventfully many lost their farms.

We had a terrible monetary policy during this time and the Fed was actually raising interest rates at the beginning of the depression(fuckin Republicans).

I do see problems, but most companies are doing better profit wise now than they were a year ago.

By the way I also have read in the paper recently some people predicting a Dow of 2000-3000.

Anything is possible, but I just don't see a depression or anything close to it.

Let me explain my reasoning:

Most post-war recessions typically hit the lower and middle classes quite hard, with significant unemployment. Typically, the wealthy suffered little during these recessions.

This one is different. The wealthier classes took it on the chin. To most working class people, this recession is simply not relevant. Yet.

When and IF the impact trickles down to Main Street, and unemployment starts moving towards 10 percent, then people will start talking depression.

IF the Dow falls much below 7000, and the NasDaq dribbles below 1000, look out below. I guarantee you that the words "Jobs at McDonalds are hard to get" will follow shortly.

Of course, if the market turns around, life will be great.

Will worst case, I bet I can get a job at MaDonalds or better still Pollo Feliz on Aqua Calente.

Since Gray Davis signed a bill allowing workers paid time off for taking care of their wives/personal illness(Gosh I feel warm and fuzzy as I fire my employees) I would not worry about being out of work.

I am also well connected at Unicornio and can probably get a job working in the bano.

Don't get to excited about a depression.

benwholikesmenialjobs

Ldvee DOW 8000

Ben Dow 7750

Sam I have officially shaved. DOW 7560

Putanero I'm going to try to sneak in there at 7655.

T Bone Dow 8,075

Gt Depression was mainly caused by US putting on 44%
trade tarifs (Smoot-Hawley). International trade went to
almost nothing, Europeans eventually retaliated and voila, depression.
May have even contributed to the rise of Hitler and WWII.
I don't think we'll have a depression until next year at the earliest,
but we might have a stock panic this fall -
with a low either Oct 3-4 or more likely Nov 1st.
In either case the timing of the low is 50 hours
before the new moon give or take 12 hours. See:

http://www.calendarresearch.com/reading/autumn.htm

Now has anyone done any research on the best lunar calendar days to party in TJ? Maybe around the full moon?

I agree that tariffs were another reason for our economy's down turn during the 20's-30's. Not sure you can just point to one big reason. IT seems to me Germany and Europe were in a depression earlier than the U.S..

A stock market crash will not necessarily cause an economic depression in the U. S. Many have made more money in the past couple of years in real estate than they ever lost in the stock market.

Now if the RE bubble brust?

Ldvee DOW 8000

Ben Dow 7750

Sam I have officially shaved. DOW 7560

Putanero I'm going to try to sneak in there at 7655.

T Bone Dow 8,075

Kendricks 8200

Kendricks 8200 - good to see an optimist.

Sam I have officially shaved. DOW 7560 - if he's guessing lower next week, oh jeez NO!

Now if the RE bubble brust? - let's pray for a slow leak.

P.S. Speaking of praying. I was bitching about the stock market / job situation to my AB chica last week and she said she was going to go to church and pray for me. Of course her welfare is closely tied to mine. Wonder if she wore her stilletos?

August 18 I bought Home Depot for $28.65. I sold the Sept. 32 1/2 calls and was paid $945, almost $2.00 a share. Option expired worthless as HD closed at around $31 on Friday. Reather than write some more calls I sold it for a little over $30 Monday morning.

Current price of HD is $ 28 .89 and I am thinking about going back in if it goes down below $27.

I do think the middle of October will show a short rally as earnings are reported for the third quarter.

Oh, does anyone own any EDS? Ross Perot's old company. What a disaster. Tempted to buy a few shares.

One more thing. I think the feds will lower the interest rate again.

Now I don't think it make that much economic sense as rates are currently very low, but I think it would help the psychology of the market.

For those interested in option, here is a clients account, where he would be losing over $6,000, if he had just bought for the long term. We have been buying and selling options for over a year and he is still in a good position to make a profit on his Qualcomm shares:

Options Account
Qualcomm
Price
Date Description Price Per Share

9-25-01 Bought 300 Shares QCOM $14,636.00 $48.79

9-25-01 Sold 3 Jan. 50 Calls ($1,985.00) ($6.62)

9-25-01 Net Cost Per Share $12,651.00 $42.17

9-27-01 Bought to Close 3 Jan. 50 Calls $1,766.00 $5.89

9-27-01 Net cost Per Share $14,417.00 $48.06

9-27-01 Sold 3 Jan. 45 Calls ($2,284.00) ($7.61)

9-27-01 Net Cost Per Share $12,133.00 $40.44

1-14-02 Bought to Close 3 Jan. 45 Calls $805.00 $2.68

1-14-02 Sold 3 April 45 Calls ($2,015.00) ($6.72)

1-14-02 Net Cost Per Share $10,923.00 $36.41

4-19-02 Options Expired

5-07-02 Bought 300 Shares QCOM $7,640.00 $25.47

5-07-02 Sold 6 July 30 Calls ($690.00) ($1.15)

5-07-02 Net cost Per Share $17,873.00 $29.79

7-19-02 Bought to Close 6 July 30 Calls $445.00 $0.74

7-19-02 Sold 6 August 30 Calls ($1,685.00) ($2.81)

7-19-02 Net Cost Per Share $16,633.00 $27.72

8-16-02 Options Expired

8-19-02 Sold 6 Sept. 30 Calls ($875.00) ($1.46)

8-19-02 Net Cost Per Share $15,758.00 $26.26

9-20-02 Options Expired

9-24-02 Sold 6 Oct. 27 1/2 Calls ($1,295.00) ($2.16)

9-24-02 Net CostPer Share $14,463.00 $24.11


If Shares Are Called on Oct.18, 2002,

Net Profit From Stock ($6,026.00)
Net Profit From Options $7,813.00
Net Profit $1,787.00
Percent Return 383Days 12.36%
Annual Percent Return 11.61%
I charged my client $50 on each option sold or bought and I charged my client approx $360 to buy the total of 600 shares and at the sale I will be charging my client approx $250. All cost have been deducted on this worksheet. In my humble opinion I am worth it as he will still probably make a profit. Of course I am the one that got him in this mess in the first

BenwhoneedsmoneyforTJ

There MIGHT be a good pop in SURE today. I'm going to bet a few bucks. A major NYC retailer announced Monday they are going to sell their product and yesterday a large processor,Tyson Foods, announced they are jumping onboard.

SURE is a story start-up stock, the company is losing money. It's a gamble.

I have bought and sold GE 3 times this year all at a profit.

Bought today at $27.09

If it hits $30 I write some calls.

The Tyson Foods PR didn't hit the wires, don't know why, pop didn't happen, win some lose some, still holding.

Probably should stop these rookie moves and graduate to the Ben "buy and hedge???" method. That is essentially what you are doing, verdad?

Verdad

Ben Dow 7750

Putanero I'm going to try to sneak in there at 7655.


Dow closed at 7701.45

Putanero missed by 46.45

Ben missed by 49.55

Putanero wins by a cunt hair

GENERAL ELEC CO (NYSE:GE) - Trade
Last Trade
5:01pm · 24.47 Change
-1.92 (-7.28%) Prev Cls
26.39 Open
25.25 Volume
55,042,800


Oooooops!

Successful hombres are market timers.

Hey, You are right that I bought to early, but I hedged this morning by selling the October $25 calls.

If GE is above $25 on October 18, my worst case is I lose $600. If it is below $25 on Oct. 18, I get to keep the $519.00 and have reduced my risk to $25.90. And of course I can always buy my option back if I want to continue with this exercise. I can also sell the December Options and pick up(probably another $500-$600) depending on GE price on October 21.

Options Account
GE
Price
Date Description Price Per Share

9-25-02 Bought 500 Shares GE $13,545.00 $27.09

09-27-02 Sold 5 Oct. 25 Calls ($595.00) ($1.19)

9-27-02 Net Cost per Share $12,950.00
$25.90











If Shares Are Called on Oct. 18 , 2002

Net Profit From Stock ($1,195.00)
Net Profit From Options and Dividends $595.00
Net Profit ($600.00)
Percent Return 23 Days -4.63%
Annual Percent Return 178 Days -72.52%

APR above should be for 360 days, not 178 days.

I get it. It's like selling a fried chicken piece by piece and hopeing the parts are worth more than the whole.

Ben picks 7450 for the Dow

Sam picks 7250

Unless my arithmetic is wrong 7450 = 3.25% drop and 7250 = 5.9% drop. Pretty dramatic for one week.

In the first three quarters (39 weeks) the DOW went from 9920 to 7701, or -22%.

So what's my point? Fuck if I know.

Why are you guys guessing so low? Lousey earnings reports, October history, war, Iraqi missile attack on Tel Aviv, European markets crashing, real estate bubble bursting, unemployment climbing.

Come on, let's be optimistic.

Any bullish folks out there?? No? Good! Let's get this over with.

DOW 7550

I just hope I am as unlucky at picking the Dow as in picking football games.

I want to be wrong and be ridiculed for being such a pessimist.

Well it will probably end up at 7950 but i feel if it starts to crack it will really crack.My official guess is a very bearish 6950.I hope I'm wrong and that the dow doesn't ever see 6950 again.
Putanero

Bought a couple of thousand shares of JDS-Uniphase for about 2 bucks a throw.

Opinions, anyone ?

JDSU has many problems, but nothing new and that is why the company is down to $2 a share.

I think EMC might be a better bottom buy than JDSU, but you probably have a chance if you just like to gamble on a bounce. I would sell if it goes up .25 and take your profit.

Of course I always sell to early.

DOW - 7900

Dow Projections From The Analyst

Putanero 6950

Sam 7250

Ben 7450

Ldvee 7550

T Bone 7900

Man is it ugly out there. All bad news, not a bullish talking head to be found (I watch Bloomberg in the AM).

Contrarian philosophy anybody?

Man, GE is killing me,

I bought back the October 25 Calls this morning and sold the October 22 1/2 Calls. I increased my potential loss to $1215, but I lowered my cost to $24.82 a share. If GE is around $22.50-$23.50 on October 18, this will work out pretty good for me. If GE is below 22 1/2 on October 18 I get to keep the money and still own the stock. Then I will sell some more Calls

If GE goes up above $25 on October 18, I will probably just let it get sold at $22.50 and take my loss of $1215.00.

See worksheet:

Options Account
GE
Price
Date Description Price Per Share

9-25-02 Bought 500 Shares GE $13,545.00 $27.09

09-27-02 Sold 5 Oct. 25 Calls ($595.00) ($1.19)

9-27-02 Net Cost per Share $12,950.00 $25.90


9-30-02 Buy to Close 5 October 25 Calls $405.00 $0.81

9-30-02 Sell 5 October 22 1/2 Calls ($945.00) ($1.89)

9-30-02 Net Cost Per Share $12,410.00 $24.82






If Shares Are Called on Oct. 18 , 2002

Net Profit From Stock ($2,350.00)
Net Profit From Options and Dividends $1,135.00
Net Profit ($1,215.00)
Percent Return 23 Days -9.38%
Annual Percent Return 178 Days -146.85%

Dow Projections From The Analyst

Putanero 6950

Sam 7250

Ben 7450

Ldvee 7550

T Bone 7900

Kendricks 8000

Ben

I know someone who knows the product line of EMC inside-out.As far as storage goes they supposedly have a top of the line product and support.Demand for this just happened to hit the skids with the dot-bust along with a lot of competition with inferior but much cheaper product.It also didn't help that the company bigwigs sold massive amounts of shares anytime EMC's stock tried to bounce.
Dell has integrated some of thier product to work with Dell's and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Dell buy them up while they are cheap.
Putanero

EMC use to be the 800 lb gorilla of the storage technology business.

Because of a drop in demand(you mentioned above) and new competion from others who have entered the market, the stock has been killed.

I did read recently that perhaps EMC was one of the companies that might come back some day.

I just think tech is to risky and out of favor.

Market prediction - end of year 2002 we are at 6900

A slight interest drop by the Fed in November .25 point

Good buys - still like GE and healthcare (AdvancePCS) - tech stocks - Nextel stands out - it has a differentiator - and a unique / cost effecent - sales effective - business model - and the people inside are pretty good at the mgmt level. And I am prejudice towards Level3...

look at companies focused on customer profitability models. Southwest does this in the airline biz and see their performance long term.

Ramblings of a madman -

check out www.tradingmarkets.com - look into fibonaccis

Will the NAZ drop below 1000 points this year?

My guess is YES.

Prediction number 2: Ben will make money off the NAZ as it drops below 1000.

Market drifting today with the Dow currently at 7778 with an hour until the close.

It would seem to me that this dock workers strike could have some major impact on the economy.

i wonder if Bush should step in and really piss offthe unions by makinhg then go back to work?

I can't believe the unions sometimes just don't get it. These guys are paid very good wages and our economy and companies are not going to be very receptive to wage increases and employment protection when the economy is doing poorly.

Should Bush step in ??? He probably has very few votes to lose.

I heard on the radio that these guys make 100K a year, have union rules that make it very difficult for them to lose their jobs, and get a pension. I don't know what the story is, but it sounds like they have it pretty good to me.

If all that is true, and their grievences are petty, Bush should step in.

It's something about automation isn't it?

Don't bother answering I'll read up on it.

If what they are doing is hurting business and other folks, like stockholders in America's great companies (me), then Bush should step in.

If only he would spend some time on domestic issues.

Hey,

Most jobs are threatened by automation.

Live and deal with it, right?

benwhowillnotsellbuggywhips