Almost 10:00 and the Dow at 7602. Curbs are in place.

Ldvee is looking good or maybe that is bad.

I wish Kendricks pick was winning. Ken picked 8000

Philip Morris news!!!

A California jury just award a smoker(dead) $28 Billion in punitive damages. Why not give his family and of course the attorneys a trillion dollars.

Another stupid California jury award that will be thrown out.

Uh, who/where are the people that are always posting about how conservative Californians are on politics and fiscal policy. I guess 12 are on jury duty in LA right now.

Sorry, smoker is a 64 year old lady with lung cancer. Still alive.

Dow closed ay 7529

Ldvee wins

Has anyone tracked who has won the most?

My version of Quicken dowloaded $7528.40 for today's close. Are you rounding up always?

I think you are right, although right after the close it was 7528.80 and was changed about 15 minutes after the close.

benwhoisirritatedbypickypeople

"Has anyone tracked who has won the most?"

I think I've GUESSED correct 3 times.

Here's the DOW's weekly performance since 17 Aug

Date........DOW.........Change
17-Aug-02...8,778.06
24-Aug-02...8,872.96...+1.07
31-Aug-02...8,663.50...-2.42
08-Sep-02...8,427.20...-2.80
13-Sep-02...8,312.69...-1.38
21-Sep-02...7,986.02...-4.09
28-Sep-02...7,701.45...-3.70
05-Oct-02...7,528.40...-2.30


Fucking incredible, and here we are in the beginning of October, historically a terrible month.

Another 2.5% down for next week, Iraq is the wildcard plus dockworkers.

DOW 7340

DOW...….....NASDAQ........S&P.....
17-Aug-02.....8,778.06.......……..1,361.01...……….....928.77..........
24-Aug-02.....8,872.96.....+1.07.....1,380.62.....+1.42.....940.86.....1.28
31-Aug-02.....8,663.50.....-2.42.....1,314.85.....-5.00.....916.07.....-2.71
08-Sep-02.....8,427.20.....-2.80.....1,295.30.....-1.51.....893.92.....-2.48
13-Sep-02.....8,312.69.....-1.38.....1,291.40.....-0.30.....889.81.....-0.46
21-Sep-02.....7,986.02.....-4.09.....1,221.09.....-5.76.....845.39.....-5.25
28-Sep-02.....7,701.45.....-3.70.....1,199.16.....-1.83.....827.37.....-2.18
05-Oct-02.....7,528.40.....-2.30.....1,139.90.....-5.20.....800.58.....-3.35

I started this little chart in mid August to watch the recovery from the July lows. uh, hmmm, duh, not working out that way is it?

You guys in the stock market should have listenned to me four years ago and bought a house.A house bought for 200 thousand only four years ago can now be sold for 300 thousand.Now is the time to sell though.It was slow for a few months after 9/11 but boy did it pick up in Feb.

Specific,

What makes you think no one bought real estate?

I would bet many that are in the stock market also own real estate, bonds, etc.

But you are definitely right that real estate is the big winner over the past 3-4 years and it has probably peaked.

Southern CA has been incredible.

Let's see the market is at a 6 year low and the words bubble and real estate are often appear in the same sentence.

Sell the shack and buy the DOW???

Hmmmm

DOW 7250
Iraq
Dock Dispute
And (in my opinion the biggest wild card), Brazil's elections (here we go with Lulu). Will Brazil default? Who knows... Fructose tax still at 20%; however, the peso has come down a little since Pmex settled.

Ohhhhhhhhhh, What a world, what a world, what a world!!!!!!!!

Thank God there are soooooooooooooooo many women and such little time.........

Good Thinking Sam

Actually Ldvee you are probably right, but who has the guts to sell their home or borrow against it to go into the market or sell a rental that has done well, pay taxes on the gain, and then invest in the market.

You might look like a genius in 5-10 years, the problem is the "MIGHT".

Hold onto your butts!

http://www.observer.co.uk/economy/story/0,1598,805683,00.html

Ben,
I was just making the point that 4 years ago people on this board asked where they should invest.Everyone talked about stocks.I told them to stay out of the market and invest in Real Estate.I guess even a fool like me can be right once in a while.I still think even in a slow down Real Estate will maintain its value,especially in Southern California.The only thing that could really change that is if the economy falls off a cliff or worse the powers that be raise interest rates and real estate taxes.
I believe the stock market and stocks are just pieces of paper looking for a bigger fool to purchase them.If they don't pay a dividend,you can't eat them or live in them or drive them and you certainly have no say in how they are run or how management steals(excuse me uses your money).As a home owner you really have a asset and with bankruptcy laws the way they are out here in California,it is very hard to to loose money.Many people out here in Southern California have refinanced 3 or 4 times already and they don 't even have jobs.The banks don't take back houses anymore.So I believe even though it might slow down,a house is still a better investment than almost any stock.

It is pretty dismal, people are going to be tightening their belts throughout the western world. I'm certainly consuming less panocha. I was going to go south last night, filled my wallet, but cancelled out. My wallet is still fat this AM but the money will be spent on gasoline, food etc over the next week.

Ah, que lastima.

Specific,

"The only thing that could really change that is if the economy falls off a cliff or worse the powers that be raise interest rates and real estate taxes."

"if the economy falls off a cliff" - it's at the cliff now looking over and the ground is crumbling.

"the powers that be raise interest rates" - uh, well, they're at historic lows now, maybe one more lowering, then they stay low or rise, I suspect the latter.

"real estate taxes" in CA they're a percentage of the cost of the house - I doubt they will go higher.

Don't get me wrong, at times real estate is a great investment if you're willing to sell and realize the gains, if you don't sell, it's all paper wealth anyway. If you have a family, need a house, and can afford it, certainly buy one.

The dramatic increase in real estate values in SoCal over the past few years is due to demand, which will decrease the more expensive houses get, the record low interest rates, which I think will increase over the next few years, and the wealth effect due to the stock market bubble, which is now gone.

True, 4 years ago real estate was a safe bet and the market was risky. It appears that the pendulum is swinging the other way.

Just some thoughts for the sake of arguement. I certainly don't really know what's going to happen.

Rumor has it the Fed will cut rates tomorrow, don't know the source, just read it on another message board, could be BS, but, if so, cheaper mortgages means higher home prices.

Stock market? pfff

About 3 years ago I put all of my ira accounts in REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts).

But let's not talk about my cash account (ouch, internet !)

DOW 7,750

Ldvee DOW 7340

Sam DOW 7250

T Bone DOW 7,750

Ben Dow 7500

Ldvee DOW 7340

Sam DOW 7250

T Bone DOW 7,750

Ben Dow 7500

Kendricks Dow 7850

Holy Pazole, watch out below!!!!!

Next to my favorite ride PUSY, as in mustache rides, I love roller coasters, and the past few years in the market have been quite a ride. I'm ready for the up g forces.

Hey look at Dogster's, I mean Sam's very negative thinking pick.

Dow at 7242 as I post.

My last post "I'm ready for the up g forces."

Well, I got some yesterday and the opening today looks good. DOW closed last Friday at 7528, jeez maybe will have a positive week, in October no less.

Maybe I'll buy something in the PUSY sector this weekend. If I do, it will be a tried and true older, value issue that I know sells a quality product. Not interested in Initial Public Offerings now.

Damn, I mean good!

Kendricks is winning with his optimistic pick of 7850.

Dow is 7802 as of 9:45 Friday

Actually T Bone is running neck and neck with Kendricks

And The Winner is:

Kendricks Dow 7850

Uh, the Dow closed at 7850.

That idiot(he can't post here anymore) Kendricks hit it on the exact number.

No wonder so many people dislike Hombre Kendricks.

Fuckin SmartAss

Kendricks rocks! I wonder where he is posting nowadays ...

-Superman-

Gee,

Let me guess???

Chica Chica

This is the only board that would probably allow an answer.

Hombre must feel fairly secure. He should, as this is the best site I have ever seen on this type of subject matter

Boy, I wish Kendricks would come back to this website. He is a very intelligent and informative monger.

Kendricks is posting like a madman on another TJ-oriented Mongering board...And no, it is not ChicaChica.net...

YoungBrig

Ben, yes this is the best site by far ... still, banning long-time mongers seems like the beginning of a slippery slope ...

-Superman-

I agree that i hate censorship, but I am glad that fucking ashole Aardvaek was kicked off for spreading lies about fantasies.

OK

8050

Putanero

Dow 7550
Dock strike is over, peso is stable, but what about the Fructose tax? We will not see 8000 until the tax is repealed.

UCLA football sucks.......

Date________DOW______Change__NASDAQ_____Change__S&P____Change
17-Aug-02___8,778.06___________1,361.01___________928.77___
24-Aug-02___8,872.96___+1.07___1,380.62___+1.42___940.86___+1.28
31-Aug-02___8,663.50___-2.42___1,314.85___-5.00___916.07___-2.71
08-Sep-02___8,427.20___-2.80___1,295.30___-1.51___893.92___-2.48
13-Sep-02___8,312.69___-1.38___1,291.40___-0.30___889.81___-0.46
21-Sep-02___7,986.02___-4.09___1,221.09___-5.76___845.39___-5.25
28-Sep-02___7,701.45___-3.70___1,199.16___-1.83___827.37___-2.18
05-Oct-02___7,528.40___-2.30___1,139.90___-5.20___800.58___-3.35
13-Oct-02___7,850.29___+4.10___1,210.47___+5.83___835.32___+4.16

I'll go up about another 2%

DOW 8000

P.S. Guess I just changed the rules, min spread 50 points??

Still holding off on buying some PUSY. It's very, very, very difficult, however fiscal responsibility is called for. Next week tal vez.

I think the market still as the same fundamental problems today that it had before last Thursday and Friday's rally. We still have to much consumer and business debt. Earning will start looking better, but not good enough to move the Dow or S&P as the Price to Earning is still to high.

I feel last week was mainly shorts covering their positions.

Dow

Putanero Dow 8050

Sam Dow 7550

Ldvee Dow 8000 (7950) adjusted for the rule

Ben Dow 7350 (unfortunately)

Ben,

7350??? That's a 6.4% drop in one week!!! Say it ain't so amigo. Your membership in the optimist club is in jeopardy.

I remember when I first got into the market, I quickly concluded that there are too many variables to be able to predict, but, the market is at 5 to 6 year lows, about where it was before the Internet bubble, chances are.......

What is the S&P P/E now? Isn't 15 to 20 historically "normal".

Over 20 on S&P and usuallu under 10 at the end of this type of bear market/

Kendricks picked 7800 Dow

Back in the good old days you lo ked at stocks to buy at 10-15 times earnings and like all stocks, up until the mid 90's, you looked at earning growth rate and (I know this is going to sound silly) Dividends!!!

I think the old school is back in style.

"I think the old school is back in style."

Maybe. But we now have the Internet which I think was the main contibutor to the bubble, and it's still here. And I don't mean the dotcom companies. The Inet enables millions of retail investors to buy and sell at a click of the mouse. Hence the tremendous swings. If I'm correct, the turnaround, when it happens, will be swift with a good amount of illogic to it.

We'll see and I'll be watching closely. My time horizon is getting short and I need to begin moving out of stocks and into bonds. Just not going to do that during a bear market.

Come on baby, one more round of irrational exuberance.

What the internet, computers, software, etc. did was increase for a time the growth rate, efficientcy and productivity of our economy. This productivity is still going on, but rate of growth has dropped considerably.

In 19th century London, England, with the developement of electricity, we saw the same type of accelerated growth, but most utility companies went bankrupt in the first five years of that developement.

There are many examples of dramatic inventions/developements which have caused the same type bubbles.

I think it will take a long time before we see a long term bull market, as many investors have left the market never to return.

Most investors will return after the market has gone up and stays up for a year or two.. It is called buy high and sell low. I have watched this phenomenon for 33 years. The discount brokers live and die off this psychology

They are definitely not in thier discount brokering heydey now.

Quite a drop going on in the futures after the close spurred on by Intel's poor earnings report.Those who bought technology today will be marooned on an Island reversal.
October QQQ (which I luckily got out of near thier daily highs this morning) put/call ratio was heavily weighted to the upside today.The trend when it is weighted this unevenly is for them to not let the majority to make the money.Before expiration this week I expect they will take the markets back down.Dow's over 200 points above my pick now but I expect it will be at least as low as my pick when the smoke clears with a zigzag sideways in a three hundred point range til the end of the week ending at the lower part of the zigzag for fridays expiration day.Some reaping of profits from this 1000 point upmove is on the horizon starting tommorrow.
Putanero

Ben,

"but rate of growth has dropped considerably"

I don't know that for sure, but if so it's a temporary situation. I expect computer power to increase by a factor of ten to the sixth, uh, I guess that's a million, in the next 20 years. We've just begun.

Just because a computer speeds up by a 100 times does not mean productivity increases 100 times.

I have a very fast computer but type with two fingers. There are better examples, but I am just to, uh tired to come up with them.

Certainly we will continue to have inovations and new products which will enhance productivity, but we have dramatic events like the steam engine, electricity, internet, etc. that accelarate everything for short periods and then growth slows down until the next dramatic event.


benwhohasabsdegree

"I have a very fast computer but type with two fingers."

I guy named Darwin came up with a theory that I believe to be fact that takes care of those problems :-)

You're absolutely right about the effect of significant innovation. Radio and automobiles were the 20s, then the 30s came.

I just know there is another dramatic event around the corner, like super cheap oil after cowboy George gets finished with, as the spanish would say, IRAK.

Of course my thinking is always wishful.

Ldvee,

Please say it ain't so about cheap oil.

I own a bunch of Exxon Mobil and all I get is a dividend. Stock is up only 20% over the past five years. Averaged about 7%-8% a year including the dividend.

Actually, if the price of oil would drop back down to $15 a barrel, it would have a very positive effect on the economy. It would eventually have a positive effect on the market, although oil stocks would suffer.

Cheap oil usually is a sign of the economy reviving, but then when the economy starts cooking, energy use picks up and we see the price of oil and gas increase, which in turn helps slow down the economy.

Middle East Wars throw that theory out the window as today's price of oil is not justified based on oil reserves.

Please note that I just sometimes pull these opinions out of my ass.

All of the above fuzzy thinking should not be relied upon in making investment choices. YADA yada yada.

"EconomicTheoryandHistoryaccordingtoBen"

Are you watching SURE???

Significant innovation in a small business sector - FOOD