Ldvee
You are my new guru. I sold Sure at $6.16 (bought at $2.53)--- not bad for just 23 days. After losing my ASS on Budget (el stupido me), K-Mart (Martha who?), World Com (who said they filed bankruptcy), and Leap Wireless (a technology for Mexico), it is refreshing to finally have something to feel good about (other than Marina giving me a washer machine shake down). Last week I purchased Williams Companies (WMB) at $1.60; it closed today at $2.75 (I guess the whole business sector went up). Anyway, I thought my stock picking technique was running similar to George Castanza's theory of doing the exact opposite of every feeling I had.

Also, on 08/12 the financial boys on this site gave a prognosis of the next companies to file BK. I tracked each performance since 8/12; the results if someone purchased 100 shares of each:

8/12 Today Gain/(Loss)
DYN 1.58 .76 ($82.00)
GLW 1.55 2.81 +$126.00
KM .61 .63 +$ 2.00
LU 1.49 1.32 ($17.00)
NT .96 1.52 +$56.00
Q 4.16 4.09 +$293.00
UAL 3.05 4.45 +$140.00
WMB 2.78 2.75 ($3.00)

Net Gain of $515.00 on $1318 = 39.07% increase

As you can tell, I am a bottom dweller / high risk taker.

Sam,

You have to be a risk taker to go for this one - VIFL. Another player in the food irradiation business, which is getting hot (the business, not this company, yet). It's such a tiny, bullshit company I can't bring myself to buy any but they do have a big backer, MDS NORDION INC. Careful with this one, it might be a quick buck around the time that the FDA annonces approval for ready-to-eat meats.

AMR popped 30% today and I was thinking about it last week but didn't move. I mean, American Airlines is not going to go broke. With that name the gov. won't let it, it would be perceived as an AL-Qaeda victory.

Hey Sam,

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1603257715&tid=sure&sid=1603257715&mid=28741

The Dow closed today at 8,537.13. Since Ben guessed 8600, he is officially this week's winner. Putanero came in second with 8350.

I'll go for 8750 again for next week.

BTW, Kendricks came in third, increasing his streak of being either exactly right or incredibly close.

8400 god dammit

Put me down for 8290

I know a guy who predicted that the NAS would hit 1600 back in March of 2000 when it was at 5000. He was right. He now says there is one more "down leg" to go. He doesn't know when or how much (who does?) but....

I'll squeeze in at 8650.

Another drop from here is not unrealistic. It's hard to say if small investors have been sufficiently demoralized for a true bottom to form. Time will tell.

LDVEE
What are your thoughts on Leap Wireless (LWIN)? I rode this stock all the way from $10.25 to $1.73. I have been monitoring it like I have my other high risk stocks. Friday the volume of 7.5M (7x the normal), took it up from .42 to .60 (50% increase).

I don't know, I guess you can think that since it has dropped from $100 at the bubble to 60 cents it can't go much lower, well wait a minute, it can, it still has 60 more cents to go. The analysts sure don't like it, for what that's worth.

The problem with the smaller wireless companies is that the whole telecommunications business has taken such a hit the big guys are scrambling for all the markets they can get, profits be damned. They have the inertia to get through this period of over capacity. The smaller guys, hmmmm. Doesn't excite me.

If you're bottom fishing, what about AMR? American Airlines isn't going away, especially if United Airlines goes BK. In fact I'm going to buy a small amount of AMR this mid-week, if it's going up, and keep buying small amounts if it keeps going up.

This 22 year chart indicates it's a good value.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AMR&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

P.S. I know it's somewhat creepy, but there are profits to be made as a result of 911, I think AMR and other airlines fall into that category if they can keep the planes gassed-up.

I also think that's why the food irradiation game is heating up.

Date_________DOW_______Change___NASDAQ____Change____S&P______Change
17-Aug-02____8,778.06_____________1,361.01____________928.77____
24-Aug-02____8,872.96_____1.07____1,380.62_____1.42____940.86_____1.28
31-Aug-02____8,663.50____-2.42____1,314.85____-5.00____916.07____-2.71
08-Sep-02____8,427.20____-2.80____1,295.30____-1.51____893.92____-2.48
13-Sep-02____8,312.69____-1.38____1,291.40____-0.30____889.81____-0.46
21-Sep-02____7,986.02____-4.09____1,221.09____-5.76____845.39____-5.25
28-Sep-02____7,701.45____-3.70____1,199.16____-1.83____827.37____-2.18
05-Oct-02____7,528.40____-2.30____1,139.90____-5.20____800.58____-3.35
13-Oct-02____7,850.29_____4.10____1,210.47_____5.83____835.32_____4.16
18-Oct-02____8,322.40_____5.67____1,287.86_____6.01____884.39_____5.55
26-Oct-02____8,443.99_____1.44____1,331.13_____3.25____897.65_____1.48
02-Nov-02____8,517.64_____0.86____1,360.70_____2.17____900.96_____0.37
08-Nov-02____8,537.13_____0.23____1,359.28____-0.10____894.74____-0.70

Sam,

There is an FDA meeting tomorrow where some decisions will be made about irradiating ready-to-eat meats. This will be a huge market for SURE and I think it will happen. The meeting tomorrow is not for the final approval, that will be next, probably 1st quarter of next year.

It's a buy on the rumor (today) perhaps sell on the news type thing. I'm thinking about it. Maybe make some mongering money.

Yesterday, I bought WMB at $2.20. It topped at $2.60 after settling a lawsuit with California. The after hours trading has it at $3.10. If this goes over $3.15, I will sell and put in Sure. Thanks for the tip.

Speaking of tips, go to Ejecutivo for a massage. Ask for Eli. She is good!

Good luck with WMB and thanks for the puta tip!

Never been to Ejecutivo, time for a new experience.

Sex and money - la dulce vida

Hola Amigo's,

Just returned from Florida where I had a good time.

Leave you guys alone for a week and the market drops almost 5%. Hey, I have to blame it on someone.

Was in South Florida, close enough to Cuba to swim, but decided to just go fishing.

How many avid stock-pickers are also avid sports gamblers? Inquiring minds just gotta know ...

I mean, there's "picking" stocks like Lynch or Buffet do it, looking at things like long-term trends in an industry, price to earnings ratios, overall management team, etc. Then there's "picking" like Flatt and Scruggs ...

Not me, book guy. I make small sports bets on rare occasions just to give me a reason to care about a game, but I really don't care about pro sports at all.

I am a somewhat avid poker player, though....

Kendricks

I like poker, but really never have been a big gambler. I usually bet $20-$40 when I do gamble and usually on $10 3 game parlays. Sucker bets, but I do it just for fun.

I probably go to caliente 5-6 times per year.

I live near Del Mar race track and visit the track once every year or two.

I cringe when I hear people say investing is gambling, unless they are buying leap wireless and other penny stocks.

To me buying GE and Bank of America is not gambling. I think there are many incredible opportunities right now. When the stocks really move up it will be time for the amatures to move back in on the highs. As usually.

I too like poker but don't play much, never do any sports or casino gambling. 9 ball is my game, I used to have a hot stick but I very seldom get on pool table now. I like the pool hall upstairs on the corner of 1st and Constitution, beers are only a $1.50 too. Any shooters out there?????

I've been churning a small portion of my SURE holdings, which is a very small part of my port, sort of like gambling, and have managed to buy low and sell high several times in the past few months - imagine that. Bought 2000 shares at the open today. I think the rest of the week will be profitable, for SURE, well, maybe.

Gambling ain't my drug of choice; sex is.

I'm not a gambler... pocket-change poker games every decade or two... attended opening day races at Del Mar for the last 2 years (didn't bet a dime; lots of beautiful women all over the place)... gave the parking dude near my work a dollar to buy a lotto ticket (we'll split the jackpot when we WIN BIG!!!)...

Well, ok, I did wager a few hundred dollars on NBA games over the last couple years... E-Z money!!! But I can stop whenever I want to. Really, I swear.

I used to be a Las Vegas junkie a while back. Craps was my game. My style of betting was the don't line. Hey, I didn't know those people who bet on the come line each time. How do I know if they were lucky or not?

Over all, I did come out ahead. I never thought that I would ever "win" any money gambling. My goal was to stand up to the tables and drink as much free drinks as I could.

Now, with KM, WCOEQ, Budget, LWIN, SBLU, and WMB, I guess my betting style hasn't changed. However, where is the free booze and mi dinero?

Sam,

I had the date and gov agency wrong concerning SURE so maybe I got in a week early, still probably good tho. Here's the real skinny.

http://www.fsis.usda.gov/oa/news/2002/lmmeet.htm

http://www.fsis.usda.gov/OPPDE/rdad/FRPubs/97-013P.htm

The surebeam process addresses these concerns.

Kendricks I'll go for 8750 again for next week

Dogster 8400 god dammit

Bonvvnt Put me down for 8290

Ldvee I'll squeeze in at 8650

ben at 8190

Put me down for 7870 (no optimism here).

Sorry Sam,

Your post is way to late for this week.

Cut off was 9:30 A.M. today.

Gamble? Me? The most I've ever lost on a hand of blackjack was 500US so I wouldn't consider it serious. ;)

Just kidding Sam as I made my guess at 9:26 A.M. today.

I assumed someone would comment on my unfair post.

unfair post

Gracias Doggie.

Been at the office for the past four hours catching up on my work and got side tracked. Started watching Adianna videos over and over again.

I have been screwing around with this stock for a year. It finally starts going up at the wrong time so I had to roll it by doing a spread option.

I am close to break even, but I sold some bonds which were paying almost 6%(tax free) and the bonds are up about 5% in value this year. So my real cost is the $11,000 I would have made this year if I had just left it alone.

I think the bond game is just about over and I am moving more money into stocks as we speak.

I am going to spend this afternoon with Sweet Cakes in Tijuana getting her opinion on whether Pfizer is going up. Sweet Cakes knows allot about how to make money.I haven't seen this girl in about 10 days, but whose counting?

Options Account
Qualcomm
Price
Date Description Price Per Share

1-07-02 Bought 1000 Shares $48,255.00 $48.26

1-07-02 Sold 10 April 40 Calls ($11,095.00) ($11.10)

1-07-02 Net Cost Per share $37,160.00 $37.16

2-21-02 Bought 10 April 40 Calls $1,205.00 $1.21

2-21-02 Sold 10 April 35 Calls ($2,395.00) ($2.40)

2-21-02 Net Cost Per Share $35,970.00 $35.97

3-04-02 Bought to Close 10 April 35 Calls $4,955.00 $4.96

3-04-02 Sold 10 July 45 Calls ($2,295.00) ($2.30)

3-04-02 Net Cost Per Share $38,630.00 $38.63

7-19-02 Options Expired

7-22-02 Sold 10 September 35 Calls ($1,295.00) ($1.30)

7-22-02 Net Cost Per Share $37,335.00 $37.34

8-05-02 Buy to Close 10 Sept. 35 Calls $255.00 $0.26

8-05-02 Net Cost Per Share $37,590.00 $37.59

8-20-02 Sold 10 Sept. 32 1/2 Calls ($495.00) ($0.50)

8-20-02 Net Cost Per Share $37,095.00 $37.10

9-20-02 Options Expired

9-23-02 Sold 10 Nov. 32 1/2 Calls ($1,095.00) ($1.10)

9-23-02 Net Cost Per Share $36,000.00 $36.00

11-14-02 Bought to Close 10 Nov. 32 1/2 Calls $4,255.00 $4.26

11-14-02 Sold to Open 10 Dec 35 Calls ($3,345.00) ($3.35)

11-14-02 Net Cost Per share $36,910.00 $36.91


If Shares Are Called on Dec 20, 2002

Net Profit From Stock ($13,355.00)
Net Profit From Options and Dividends $11,345.00
Net Profit ($2,010.00)
Percent Return Days
Annual Percent Return

What ever happened to holding good stocks for the long haul? Yeesh, that's like a gajillion transactions every week. Who has time?

Buy and hold is a great idea. Imagine - if you had bought GE at $25 a share in 1998, it would be worth a whopping $25 a share today! That is a zero percent increase!

Even better - if you had just bought 1,000 shares of GE in the year 2000 for only $60 a share, you would have turned a mere $60,000 into a whopping $25,000 (less transaction costs and commissions, of course). Hell, it's possible that people who faithfully follow this strategy may even break even, if they stay the course for another 10 - 15 years.

If I had bought and held QCOM for the past year I would be down $10,000 right now and three months ago I would have been down $22,000.

I would reather buy a stock that I can make money on even if it doesn't go up.

As to, who has the time? I do.

I have bought and sold GE three times this year all at a profit, yet GE was at $42 a year ago and is now at $24.50. Uh you had better rethink buy and hold in this market.

Everybody is a genius and needs no financial advice when we are in a raging bull market. In times like today, you had better study and seek professional advice if you want to make money.

And No I am not looking for clients.

you guys are confusing me,

"yet GE was at $42 a year ago and is now at $24.50. Uh you had better rethink buy and hold"

dissin' buy and hold based upon 1 year??? that ain't exactly holdin' bro.

When the market is at a low, like now, buy and hold (3-5 years) might be a good strategy.

however Kendrick's 98 - 02 is some good insight, I hope the last 4 years repeats itself, then

02 buy
04 sell
06 buy

Ldvee,

Of course you are right about buy and hold being a good strategy. Long term should be a minimum of five years in my opinion, but realistically 10-15 years is a true buy and hold philosophy.

I also think asset allocation is just as important, maybe more important, than just picking good stocks and keeping them for the long term.

I also believe that todays market is much more volitile than most and sometimes you have to change strategies to meet the market climate.

Ben,

for SURE amigo

resistance at 6

the problem I have is all my assets are in equities and I'm 52 and the market just crashed

hmmmmm

and real estate, which I don't have, is sky high

double hmmmmm

I have found over the years that many investors have a hard time taking a profit.

I have one client that bought Qualcomn at an adjusted price of $10 and owns 800 shares after stock splits. The investment has more than tripled over the last ten years from $8000 to $29,800. Her investment was worth $160,000 2 1/2 years ago. I tried to get her to sell 1/2 of QCOM and put in tax free bonds at that time. Her response was that I was trying to churn her account and that Qualcomn was going to continue going up. I believe it was selling at about 900 times earnings at that time. She still has an account with me, but i talk her about once a year when she calls me.

I wish she would move her account to Charles Schwab or some other discount broker where she could save money.

Ldvee,

Obviously selling stocks at lows to buy real estate at highs is a questionable strategy.

Speaking of which, any one have any insight into talk of the real estate bubble bursting by summer? Is it strictly going to be if the market rebounds and interest rates go up or what? I want to buy some property, but prices are so inflated in So. Cal. that I just can't stomach it, no matter what the tax rewards...

Prices are very high on RE and eventually interest rates are going to go up, but just like stocks, historically "long term" it has been a very good investment.

Real estate gems can always be found. It's just a question of having the good sense not to buy something you can't sell for more than you paid for it.



PS -- by "buy and hold" I meant "hold" not "drop like a hot potato"

BG

Is it too late to change my prediction for this week? Please change my guess to 8579.09

and the winner is...drumroll....

LDVEEEEE YIPPEEEEEE

you know I've won the most times, not braggin, ahem, just fact.

applause

thank you, thank you, thank you

6th straight week of DOW gains, first time in 3 years according to Lou Dobbs, man I hate that guy, just cuz the way he looks, the asshole has hair and he fucks it up. jeez

hmmm, is the bear market over???

ldvee tabular data manana