Archive 16

ClubHombre.com: -Off-Topic-: -Stock Market: What About That Stock Market?: Archives 11-20: Archive 16
By Ben on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 07:48 am:  Edit

As of this morning Ronald Reagan is winning the Dow Theory.

By Kendricks on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 09:08 am:  Edit

I understand that you aren't recommending it. It could fit well with what I am doing, though, depending upon where it is next month, and how big the premiums are.

By Ben on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 09:54 am:  Edit

Verdad that is whu I mentioned it.

I think I also told you about ARXX.

You owe me a beer.

By Kendricks on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 10:17 am:  Edit

You also turned me on to QCOM. I definitely owe you a beer.

By Ben on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 10:56 am:  Edit

Damn QCOM.

I wrote the Nov. 32 1/2 Calls and received ($1095)back in late November. I then had to buy them back for$4,255 and then sold the Dec. 35 calls for($3345) and then bought them back for $6354. I then sold the Jan 40's for $3545. All but first transaction done in the last eight days.

My cost is now $39.72 per share. Basically I have dead money until January. And bottom line, I have $40,000 that has made nothing in a year.

By Kendricks on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 11:32 am:  Edit

I haven't been invoved with QCOM other than the Sep 25 calls I wrote earlier in the year. I made a nice little profit off of that trade, though. I'm a little wary of QCOM at these levels, as I prefer using stocks in the 5 to 20 range.

By Ben on Friday, November 22, 2002 - 07:45 pm:  Edit

Qcom is really moving, but one would think it might rest a little at $40.

With my luck on this stock, it will probably go back down to $25.

By Ldvee on Saturday, November 23, 2002 - 06:33 am:  Edit

Date_________DOW_________%_____NASDAQ_______%____S&P_______%____SURE_______%
17-Aug-02____8,778.06_____________1,361.01____________928.77_____________2.5____
24-Aug-02____8,872.96_____1.07____1,380.62_____1.42____940.86_____1.28____2.38_____-5.04
31-Aug-02____8,663.50____-2.42____1,314.85____-5.00____916.07____-2.71____2.5_______4.80
08-Sep-02____8,427.20____-2.80____1,295.30____-1.51____893.92____-2.48____2.28_____-9.65
13-Sep-02____8,312.69____-1.38____1,291.40____-0.30____889.81____-0.46____1.85____-23.24
21-Sep-02____7,986.02____-4.09____1,221.09____-5.76____845.39____-5.25____1.58____-17.09
28-Sep-02____7,701.45____-3.70____1,199.16____-1.83____827.37____-2.18____1.89_____16.40
05-Oct-02____7,528.40____-2.30____1,139.90____-5.20____800.58____-3.35____1.72_____-9.88
13-Oct-02____7,850.29_____4.10____1,210.47_____5.83____835.32_____4.16____1.62_____-6.17
18-Oct-02____8,322.40_____5.67____1,287.86_____6.01____884.39_____5.55____3.51_____53.85
26-Oct-02____8,443.99_____1.44____1,331.13_____3.25____897.65_____1.48____3.89______9.77
02-Nov-02____8,517.64_____0.86____1,360.70_____2.17____900.96_____0.37____4.84_____19.63
08-Nov-02____8,537.13_____0.23____1,359.28____-0.10____894.74____-0.70____5.34______9.36
15-Nov-02____8,579.09_____0.49____1,411.14_____3.68____909.83_____1.66____5.69______6.15
23-Nov-02____8,804.84_____2.56____1,468.74_____3.92____930.55_____2.23____5.11____-11.35

7 week bull run on the DOW. NASDAQ is impressive. MY SURE shot fizzled out. Hmmm, what to do, what to do. Think I’ll hang. The USDA just launched this website http://www.usda.gov/fst/ . Is a gov mandate for food irradition coming??

By Ldvee on Saturday, November 23, 2002 - 06:35 am:  Edit

DOW 8950 next week!!!

By Sam on Saturday, November 23, 2002 - 08:05 am:  Edit

TIVO up 50% since we talked about it. Watch out nose bleed territory!! After getting hosed on BUDGET, this wekk the deal consumates with Cendant. Stock ends up 38% on Friday. I am starting to feel like George Castanza: I should go opposite every true feeling I have.

Anyway, I love risk. I don't have a lot invested in the stock market. Everything is in my business. The only risk that I don't like is popping a chica in TJ without a condom. So, with that, does anyone on this board have any HIGH RISK investment recomendations? Those companies that would curl your hair if you had money in.

I mean if World COM can go from .09 to .29 in 2 days, let's ID the next set of bankrupt high risk stocks that are posed to break out (Williams Co, was nice).

By Kendricks on Saturday, November 23, 2002 - 11:49 am:  Edit

I go for 9150 again next week.

If QCOM drops back down to 25 again, I think I'll buy it and sell some options.

By Dogster on Saturday, November 23, 2002 - 11:16 pm:  Edit

9050 Ronald Reagan (fucking senile teflon bastard won last week) and Dogster

Yours in whoring,
d
Dogster

By Ben on Sunday, November 24, 2002 - 02:43 pm:  Edit

Ldvee DOW 8950 next week!!!

Kendricks go for 9150 again next week

Dogster9050

Ben 8850

By Putanero on Sunday, November 24, 2002 - 06:56 pm:  Edit

8750

By Ben on Sunday, November 24, 2002 - 07:01 pm:  Edit

Ldvee DOW 8950 next week!!!

Kendricks go for 9150 again next week

Dogster9050

Ben 8850

Putanero 8750

By Ben on Tuesday, November 26, 2002 - 08:48 am:  Edit

Putanero in the lead today.

Dow down with crubs in place.

Economic news not to exciting today.

I will probably not be in town on Friday so one of you guys needs to post the results

By Ben on Wednesday, November 27, 2002 - 09:35 am:  Edit

There will be several companies added and several delisted from the nasdaq 100(^NDX) in the next month.

In some cases (ADCT) for example there will be required liquidation of over 25 million shares from the index, while there is almost 800 million shares out standing.

ADCT will announce their earning on December 3 after the market closes. For low price stocks there might be an interesting play on buying the stock and selling the Jan. $2.50 Calls.

I do not own the stock and have no intention of buying it, but you might want to review the list of stocks under (^NDX) for some interesting prospects.

By Ldvee on Friday, November 29, 2002 - 09:01 am:  Edit

Glad I didn't invest in AMR. The whole airline industry is off my list because of the events yesterday. I'll still fly of course, but investing in these companies is too risky.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=4770

By Ldvee on Saturday, November 30, 2002 - 09:40 am:  Edit

Date_________DOW________%______NASDAQ_____%_____S&P______%____SURE____%
17-Aug-02____8,778.06___________1,361.01____________928.77____________2.50____
24-Aug-02____8,872.96____1.07____1,380.62____1.42____940.86____1.28____2.38___-5.04
31-Aug-02____8,663.50___-2.42____1,314.85___-5.00____916.07___-2.71____2.50____4.80
08-Sep-02____8,427.20___-2.80____1,295.30___-1.51____893.92___-2.48____2.28___-9.65
13-Sep-02____8,312.69___-1.38____1,291.40___-0.30____889.81___-0.46____1.85__-23.24
21-Sep-02____7,986.02___-4.09____1,221.09___-5.76____845.39___-5.25____1.58__-17.09
28-Sep-02____7,701.45___-3.70____1,199.16___-1.83____827.37___-2.18____1.89___16.40
05-Oct-02____7,528.40___-2.30____1,139.90___-5.20____800.58___-3.35____1.72___-9.88
13-Oct-02____7,850.29____4.10____1,210.47____5.83____835.32____4.16____1.62___-6.17
18-Oct-02____8,322.40____5.67____1,287.86____6.01____884.39____5.55____3.51___53.85
26-Oct-02____8,443.99____1.44____1,331.13____3.25____897.65____1.48____3.89____9.77
02-Nov-02____8,517.64____0.86____1,360.70____2.17____900.96____0.37____4.84___19.63
08-Nov-02____8,537.13____0.23____1,359.28___-0.10____894.74___-0.70____5.34____9.36
15-Nov-02____8,579.09____0.49____1,411.14____3.68____909.83____1.66____5.69____6.15
23-Nov-02____8,804.84____2.56____1,468.74____3.92____930.55____2.23____5.11__-11.35
29-Nov-02____8,896.09____1.03____1,478.78____0.68____936.31____0.62____5.39____5.19

By Ldvee on Saturday, November 30, 2002 - 09:48 am:  Edit

The Benosaurus wins at 8850.

I'll go for 9000 next week

By Dogster on Saturday, November 30, 2002 - 07:27 pm:  Edit

Dogster 9150

Just finally finished reading Theodore Rex (about Theodore Roosevelt's presidency). The so called "robber barons" had to rescue the stock market twice during TR's administration. Despite being a "trust buster" and a "progressive", TR was on reasonable (but not great) terms with Wall Street.

By Kendricks on Sunday, December 01, 2002 - 02:32 pm:  Edit

I'll take 8900

By T_Bone on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 12:00 am:  Edit

8750.07

By Ben on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 06:54 am:  Edit

Benosaurus 9300

By Ben on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 06:58 am:  Edit

Ldvee I'll go for 9000 next week

Dogster 9150

Kendricks I'll take 8900

T Bone 8750.07

Benosaurus 9300

By Ben on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 07:50 am:  Edit

Ldvee,

It seems to me that I suggested you stay away from AMR or at least said I only like SWA(LUV).

Now you stick me with "Benosaurus".

Perhaps you should bye some Enron???

By Sr. Guapo on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 04:16 pm:  Edit

Benosaurus

I heard Unicornio and La Tropa will be IPOing next week. How many shares should I buy ?
And When should I sell.

Thanks
Sr. Leche

By Ben on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 04:48 pm:  Edit

Bend Over, I'll give you some shares.

By Sr. Guapo on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 05:43 pm:  Edit

I like guys that share :)


Milky

By Ldvee on Monday, December 02, 2002 - 07:20 pm:  Edit

Benosaurus the benefactor,

Make me the beneficiary of your benevolence but do not benumb me with benign information nor bentrovato analysis.

What the fuck happened with SURE today??

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SURE&d=c&t=1d&l=on&z=b&q=l

How was the bender this weekend? Did you feed on the benthic life of the zone or just play the role of a bencher?

Sorry, just having fun? with the dictionary.

By Ldvee on Tuesday, December 03, 2002 - 06:31 am:  Edit

Ben,

What does this info tell you?

http://mcribel.com/LevelC/93338789-order.htm

By Ldvee on Tuesday, December 03, 2002 - 06:34 am:  Edit

oops, the data will probably change at the open today. SURE trading yesterday was pretty strange.

By Ben on Tuesday, December 03, 2002 - 11:57 am:  Edit

Anybody have any thoughts on GM?

Pay a nice dividend and selling for about 7 times 2002 earnings

By Ben on Wednesday, December 04, 2002 - 09:09 am:  Edit

Since my canidate this week for winning the Dow has no chance of victory, I am withdrawing 9300 for a much more respectable 8650.07

By Kendricks on Wednesday, December 04, 2002 - 09:44 am:  Edit

I'm actually glad that the market is pulling back some. My stable of downtrodden stocks that I have been writing options against was getting too high.

By Ben on Wednesday, December 04, 2002 - 10:33 am:  Edit

I think the market is going to take a while to digest this run up over the past couple of months.

When the earning come out in January, it will have allot to do with 2003 stock market. I think earnings will be hard put to justify the prices of some of these latest stock prices.

benwhosaystheobvious

By Kendricks on Wednesday, December 04, 2002 - 06:45 pm:  Edit

I would love to see us stay in a nice trading range for a while. That is my medium-term prediction, and it will be beautiful if it comes true.

By Ben on Wednesday, December 04, 2002 - 07:35 pm:  Edit

Yeah, I agree.

8500-8900 back and forth would be perfect.

By Kendricks on Thursday, December 05, 2002 - 10:59 am:  Edit

Son of a bitch. I had a small bet on UAL, just because the premium on a deep in the money option was so high. I didn't think the US government would allow UAL to default on its loans.... it sucks being wrong, don't it? At least it was only a very small position, so I could still end up having a decent month.

By Kendricks on Thursday, December 05, 2002 - 11:44 am:  Edit

Now UAL is trading at just over a buck. I wonder if I should hold on and hope for a miracle, or just buy back my calls and cash out?

By Ben on Thursday, December 05, 2002 - 12:20 pm:  Edit

If it was me I would cash out, as they are going to be in bankrupcy for a long time.

I never, never, ever buy companies that have strong anti business unions. United was basically doomed a couple of years ago, even without 911.

By Ben on Thursday, December 05, 2002 - 12:23 pm:  Edit

Kendricks,

You might want to check out CRXA and write the January 7 1/2 Calls.

I bought a 1000 shares today at $8.05 and sold the Jan 71/2 calls for $1.65 a share.

Of course bio techs are damn risky and this good be one where you could lose allot of money.

By Ben on Thursday, December 05, 2002 - 12:24 pm:  Edit

"could be one" I meant to say.

By Kendricks on Friday, December 06, 2002 - 07:44 am:  Edit

Well, I bit the bullet and cashed out of UAL at .85. No point in throwing good money after bad by paying to draw to an inside straight. I need to stick to my game plan all of the time - the two trades I had that went badly, UAL and CKR, were trades I should have never been in in the first place. Overall, I am still doing well, though.

CRXA has been added to my list of stocks to watch. Its book value (not counting bogus intangibles) is only 2.5, but it has virtually no debt, and is paying a great premium. Just what I like to see.

All of my trading capital is tied up right now (it was only spare change I had thrown into that UAL debacle), but I will definitely be looking at CRXA when expiration day comes around in two weeks. I hate these 5 week months!

By Ben on Friday, December 06, 2002 - 08:14 am:  Edit

I have a client who is in bio chemistry,a PHD, who bought it the same day I invested. I bought it for him and then started looking at it for myself.

Incidently he is notoriously a lousy investor, but does hit home runs once in a while.

Here are the numbers on my trade which include a $100 commission on the buy and a $80 commission on the sell,with a $50 commission on selling the call. I get back 90% of all commissions less a $5 ticket charge.

Options Account
Corixa
Price
Date Description Price Per Share

12-05-02 Bought 1000 Shares CRXA $8,145.00 $8.15

12-05-02 Sold 10 Jan. 7 1/2 Calls ($1,595.00) ($1.60)

12-05-02 Net Cost Per Share $6,550.00 $6.55








If Shares Are Called on January 17, 2003

Net Profit From Stock ($730.00)
Net Profit From Options and Dividends $1,595.00
Net Profit $865.00
Percent Return 42 Days 13.21%
Annual Percent Return Days 113.20%

By Ben on Saturday, December 07, 2002 - 09:21 am:  Edit

Hey Ben won!!!!!


Ok OK "T-Bone" Won

I am guessing 8450 for next Fridays Dow.

Unemployment numbers and Iraq don't bode well for the Dow.

By Ldvee on Sunday, December 08, 2002 - 05:25 am:  Edit

Date______DOW_________%_____NASDAQ_____%_____S&P______%______SURE_____%
17-Aug____8,778.06___________1,361.01____________928.77____________2.5________
24-Aug____8,872.96____1.07____1,380.62____1.42____940.86____1.28____2.38____-5.04
31-Aug____8,663.50___-2.42____1,314.85___-5.00____916.07___-2.71____2.50_____4.80
08-Sep____8,427.20___-2.80____1,295.30___-1.51____893.92___-2.48____2.28____-9.65
13-Sep____8,312.69___-1.38____1,291.40___-0.30____889.81___-0.46____1.85___-23.24
21-Sep____7,986.02___-4.09____1,221.09___-5.76____845.39___-5.25____1.58___-17.09
28-Sep____7,701.45___-3.70____1,199.16___-1.83____827.37___-2.18____1.89____16.40
05-Oct____7,528.40___-2.30____1,139.90___-5.20____800.58___-3.35____1.72____-9.88
13-Oct____7,850.29____4.10____1,210.47____5.83____835.32____4.16____1.62____-6.17
18-Oct____8,322.40____5.67____1,287.86____6.01____884.39____5.55____3.51____53.85
26-Oct____8,443.99____1.44____1,331.13____3.25____897.65____1.48____3.89_____9.77
02-Nov____8,517.64____0.86____1,360.70____2.17____900.96____0.37____4.84____19.63
08-Nov____8,537.13____0.23____1,359.28___-0.10____894.74___-0.70____5.34_____9.36
15-Nov____8,579.09____0.49____1,411.14____3.68____909.83____1.66____5.69_____6.15
23-Nov____8,804.84____2.56____1,468.74____3.92____930.55____2.23____5.11___-11.35
29-Nov____8,896.09____1.03____1,478.78____0.68____936.31____0.62____5.39_____5.19
08-Dec____8,645.77___-2.90____1,422.44___-3.96____912.23___-2.64____4.37____-23.34

DOW 8,900 next week

By Ben on Monday, December 09, 2002 - 07:30 am:  Edit

Come on guys we need your Dow picks.

Ok maybe we /I should just retire this car as it seems to be running out of gas.

By Kendricks on Monday, December 09, 2002 - 09:22 am:  Edit

I'll take 8350. By the way, I entered a CRXA position this morning, and sold the Dec 7.5 options. That will be a hell of a percentage gain for a two week trade, if the options are assigned. I'm really looking forward to next Friday, so I can make some new trades. Did I mention that I hate these 5 week months?

By Ben on Monday, December 09, 2002 - 09:48 am:  Edit

Good move on CRXA if it holds up. Already over 450 Dec. 7 1/2 contracts traded today.

I sold the January 7 1/2 calls last week(as reported), but in retrospect maybe I should have done the Decembers. Only .40 more for the Jans., $140 vs $1.80.

Damn I hate to get beat by an amateur.